In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 247: Victory Day Without The Victory

09 May 2026

Contributed by Lukas

No tanks, great camera work. Victory Day is supposed to be Russia’s most unshakeable story, the moment when the state proves its strength, its allie...

In Moscow's Shadows 246: Is Russia A Great Power?

03 May 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A battlefield setback in Mali sparks a much bigger question: what kind of power is Russia now, and what kind of power can it afford to be? Is it a sup...

In Moscow's Shadows 245: Belousov And The War Machine

26 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Putin didn’t pick a battlefield hero to run Russia’s Defence Ministry. He picked Andrei Belousov, an economist with a planner’s instincts and a ...

In Moscow's Shadows 244: The War Word And The Clickbait Trap

19 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The fastest way to lose your grip on Russia is to reach for the word “war” every time a scary headline lands. The incentives are everywhere: polit...

In Moscow's Shadows 243: Who Controls The Story In Russia?

05 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Power doesn’t just seize territory. It seizes the story. I’m using a selection of 6 excellent new books to follow the narrative battlegrounds wher...

In Moscow's Shadows 242: Igor Sechin, Sharpening Putin's Pencils for 30 Years

29 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Putin reportedly gathered top oligarchs behind closed doors and asked them to chip in to help fill the budget, with the war in Ukraine sitting unmista...

In Moscow's Shadows 241: When Attack Dogs Turn

22 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A handful of memes and an online storm can look like nothing, right up until they start steering the news cycle. Efforts to talk up a secessionist Rus...

In Moscow's Shadows 240: Frankenstein's Putinism

15 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Or, 'Team Russia and the Undead Ideology Project' Can you create an ideology that is custom-engineered, poll-driven, focus grouped, worksho...

In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic

08 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to...

In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish

01 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

First, as the USA, Israel and Iran trade drone and missile strikes, how the war  may play out for Russia: my sense is that on balance it will give Mo...

In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion

22 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planni...

In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia?

15 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva ma...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia

10 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power with...

In Moscow's Shadows 235: From a GRU to a Kill

08 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Yes, that's a lame James Bond title wordplay. Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev, second in command of Russian military intelligence (technical...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: How Putin Is Protected

03 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses, opening the gates on Vladimir Putin’s personal s...

In Moscow's Shadows 234: PACE’s Picks, Ukraine’s Grid, Russia’s Corruption

01 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Four stories with counter-intuitive implications:PACE’s new platform for dialogue with “Russian democratic forces” beg the question of whether a...

In Moscow's Shadows 233: News, from Abu Dhabi to Kamchatka; and Chechnya After Kadyrov

25 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

First, a look at some of the news as this year starts hard and bizarre: trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (with military intelligence chiefs to the fore),...

In Moscow's Shadows 232: the Black Priest vs the Death Cult

18 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A tabloid brands Zelensky’s Christmas address a “black mass,” complete with glassy eyes, hidden codes, and a trance to “hack the noosphere” ...

In Moscow's Shadows 231: Real Guarantees for Ukraine

11 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The talk of a military force provided by the 'Coalition of the Willing' to help secure Ukraine after a peace is a non-starter, not least as ...

In Moscow's Shadows 230: The Rise and Fall of a Chechen Gang

04 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Before the self-indulgence of a deep-dive into the rise and fall of the Chechen Lazanskaya Brigada in Moscow -- and why there are some worrying implic...

In Moscow's Shadows 229: Heroes and Villains

28 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

To end the year, instead of the grand sweep of geopolitics, let's look at a collection of people making the news, sometimes whether they like it ...

In Moscow's Shadows 228: Blood & Soil versus Bread & Butter

21 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Putin's latest marathon press conference/call-in show Itogi Goda ('Results of the Year'), once Direct Line, has become an annual ritual...

In Moscow's Shadows 227: It's War! (within the emigre opposition, at least)

14 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A demilitarised zone that invites armoured cars. A referendum that can’t be fairly run. A €210 billion pot that solves today’s bills but complic...

In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods

30 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from T...

In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?

23 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms o...

In Moscow's Shadows 224: In Helsinki's (and Kyiv's) Shadows

16 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

From where's Lavrov to whether it's time for Europe to speak to Putin directly, some questions with wider significance raised during my rece...

In Moscow's Shadows 223: After Putin, Who... or What?

09 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We need to talk about post-Putin. It's fruitless at this point to try and come up with names of potential successors -- but maybe we can identify...

In Moscow's Shadows 222: Are We Seeing A New Putin?

02 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The forthcoming release of the updated version of my WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN gives me an excuse to consider whether and how Putin has changed sinc...

In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?

26 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow s...

In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?

12 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be ge...

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai

05 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is t...

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?

28 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, ...

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?

21 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s ...

In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?

14 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically re...

In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups

07 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I&...

In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)

31 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair...

In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...

24 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign...

In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska

17 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest n...

In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...

10 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic.The pod...

In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?

27 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreani...

In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit

20 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before piv...

In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation

13 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons&ap...

In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?

06 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious politica...

In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel

29 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting ...

In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War

22 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the...

In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West

15 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under th...

In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?

08 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyra...

In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway?

29 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, nee...

In Moscow's Shadows 201: Peacetalkers and Warfighters

18 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Negotiations (of a sort) in Istanbul: a real engagement or just a piece of theatre? The answer, of course, is a bit of both.And what can one read into...

In Moscow's Shadows 200: Victory Day (whose?)

11 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The 200th episode! Hard to believe.After briefly assessing Putin's late-night offer of talks with Kyiv, I dig into the Victory Day parade and wha...

In Moscow's Shadows 199: the General in GenPop

04 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

General Ivan Popov, once hailed as one of the heroes and rising stars of the Russian army, has just been sentenced to 5 years in a general regime pena...

In Moscow's Shadows 198: War (in Russia's underworld) and Peace (in Ukraine)?

27 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half, I consider the latest twists in the saga of the US-pushed 'ceasefire' plan. Has Trump has an epiphany in the Vatican, or ...

In Moscow's Shadows 197: Russia's future fascist turn?

20 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

An intemperate recent interview from Foreign Minister Lavrov, at which he warned that 'fifth columnists' within the elite wanted to hand Rus...

In Moscow's Shadows 196: Space, the Failing Frontier

13 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In the first half, I look at developments regarding Ukraine (I'm getting more sceptical about Putin's interest in a deal) and profile former...

In Moscow's Shadows 195: Q&A, Part 2

09 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A bonus second batch of questions, relating to war, peace and my attitudes to social media!The CASE survey of emigre attitudes is here.The RUSI commen...

In Moscow's Shadows 194: Q&A, Part 1

06 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Comrades! Forgive the tedious title, but this episode is the first of two answering questions set by my esteemed Patrons, covering Russian domestic a...

In Moscow's Shadows 193: Mishustin's Annual Report: what he says, what he doesn't

30 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

One, I suspect, more for the wonks. I dig into Prime Minister Mishustin's lengthy and not-so-exciting annual report to parliament, and the respon...

In Moscow's Shadows 192: What if Ukraine could join the EU in months, not years?

23 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has suggested Ukraine should be allowed into the EU on 1 January 2030 (by which time the war will be over or froz...

In Moscow's Shadows 191: How is Russian Foreign Policy Made?

16 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

What shapes Russian foreign policy? I start by looking at the core issue of the moment, Moscow's thinking over the proposed ceasefire, then consi...

In Moscow's Shadows 190: Sanctions, Spies, and Suspect Legitimacy

09 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Reflecting the chaotic and fast-moving nature of the times, another podcast of two parts. In the first, looking at various issues of the week, from Tr...

In Moscow's Shadows 189: Oval Office Mugging and Russia's Police in Crisis

02 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Much as I would love not to have to keep talking about Trump, it's inevitable that I cover the extraordinary events of this week: Trump as King L...

In Moscow's Shadows 188: War and Peace and Trump

23 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In a more-freeform-than usual episode, I consider the aftermath of the Munich Security Conference, why Trump is such a Putin fanboy (more about being ...

In Moscow's Shadows 187: Tatarstan

09 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As Russia-watchers, we know that Russia is not just Russian, or Russian Orthodox, but there is also a glib assumption that to be Muslim or otherwise a...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Ukrainskii Sindrom

03 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Originally one of the 'Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas' bonuses for Patrons, in this short pod I explore whether, when the soldiers come ho...

In Moscow's Shadows 186: Why is Putin's Russia so Prone to Conspiracy Theories?

02 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Russian response to Tucker Carlson's claim that the Biden administration tried to assassinate Putin has to a large extent been driven by poli...

In Moscow's Shadows 185: The One With All The Stuff

26 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

How else, frankly, to title an episode which covers Trump and Putin, the CIA's Ukrainian cooperation, Russo-Iranian and -Indian relations, Belaru...

In Moscow's Shadows 184: One Hundred Years of Companionship?

18 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The UK has signed a 'One Hundred Years Partnership Agreement' with Ukraine -- what's really involved under this grandiose title, and wh...

In Moscow's Shadows 183: War and Peace (and Public Opinion)

12 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

We pundits have done more than our fair share speculating on whether, how, when and with what consequences there could be peace or a ceasefire in Ukra...

In Moscow's Shadows 182: Things To Watch in 2025

05 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Outright prediction may be a mug's game, but what are some of the people and processes I will be watching in 2025?For those who get lost in the f...

In Moscow's Shadows 181: Strap in for a Bumpy 2025

29 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Sabotage under the Baltic, a grudging apology, a possible attack on a Russian cargo ship, firebombing ATMs, energy blackmail in Moldova... what connec...

In Moscow's Shadows 180: Keep Calm and Carry On

22 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What can one learn from Putin's 4½-hour-long end of year press conference? Essentially, his message to his people is that - however they might f...

In Moscow's Shadows 179: Sex, Drugs & Rocky Roads

15 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We tend to focus on the big challenges facing Russia: war, sanctions, the struggle of authoritarianism vs the remnants of civil society. Maybe it is t...

In Moscow's Shadows 178: Assad la vista, baby - what does Damascus's fall mean for Russia?

08 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

So Bashar al-Assad's blood-drenched regime has fallen. Hurrah. But what now for Russia? Is this a terrible geopolitical defeat, or actually somet...

In Moscow's Shadows 177: Adaptation in Russia and Ukraine

01 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

President Zelensky's suggestion that military attempts to retake the occupied territories could be abandoned in return for rapid NATO membership ...

In Moscow's Shadows 176: Is Andrei Belousov the Lavrov of the Defence Ministry?

24 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Schrödinger's Defence Minister, at once busy and visible yet strangely inconsequential and intangible, what can one make of Andrei Belousov, his...

In Moscow's Shadows 175: 'In a dangerous world, strike first' - Russian strategic culture

17 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

'Strategic culture' means the underlying cultural assumptions about threats and options that informs a nation's specific strategic choi...

In Moscow's Shadows 174: Putin, Trump, and the 'Polyphonic' world order

10 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It's impossible to avoid talking about the potential implications of Donald Trump's election, even as its difficult to know for sure what he...

In Moscow's Shadows 173: Personalistic Power under Putin

03 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I use reviews of three books to consider the risks and limitations of personalistic explanations of power under Putin, and whether a medieval concept ...

In Moscow's Shadows 172: BRICS without Straw

26 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

(It seems to be obligatory to use a weak BRICS/bricks pun, so I felt I had to follow...)The BRICS summit in Kazan (a smart place to hold it) gives all...

In Moscow's Shadows bonus minipodcast: North Koreans in Russia?

21 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Released to Patrons yesterday, a bonus mini-pod on the claims that North Korean combat troops are heading to fight in Ukraine and what the media discu...

In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB

20 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

An all-spook episode, as I try to piece together the rise of FSB First Deputy Director Sergei Korolev, who seems the most likely figure to succeed cur...

In Moscow's Shadows 170: The Opposition Soap Opera

13 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

At times it does look as if the emigre liberal opposition to Putin is in such a mess that it looks like a soap opera. So what are some of the recent p...

In Moscow's Shadows 169: The GUSP, the most secret of Russia's secret services

06 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The appointment to the Security Council of Alexander Linets, head of the Main Directorate of Special Programs of the President of the Russian Federati...

In Moscow's Shadows 168: Putin Wants Us To Have Nuclear Nightmares

29 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Putin's at it again, raising nuclear fears to unsettle the West. Or is the new revision to Russian nuclear doctrine more than just a bit of sabre...

In Moscow's Shadows 167: Shoigu Redux

21 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

While the Security Council itself is having its time wasted with trivia, new Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has been busy. How has he surviv...

In Moscow's Shadows 166: Raider Nation, a quick news round-up

18 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I still haven't decided how/if to continue with these mid-week quickfire podcasts picking up on some news stories that catch my eye, but in the m...

In Moscow's Shadows 165: Prince Bogdoi, Information Logjams and Public-Private Empire

15 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

What may a misadventure from 17th century Russian imperial history tell us about modern Russia? Why, about the perils of information logjams and publi...

In Moscow's Shadows 164: From Ballots to Babies, a quick news round-up

12 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As promised, a quickfire interim episode covering some of the past week's stories, from drones over Moscow and reactions to the US presidential d...

In Moscow's Shadows 163: The Importance of Optimism (even when it comes to Russia)

08 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I spin off two recent books, Elena Kostychenko's, I Love Russia. Reporting from a lost country and Sergei Medvedev's A War Made in Russia, b...

In Moscow's Shadows 162: Lavrov's (Living) Obituary

01 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Empty rumours of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's death on the internet yesterday, got me thinking about his shrinking role, and the twil...

In Moscow's Shadows 161: What's Going On in Russian Prisons?

25 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After another armed hostage taking by inmates (and bloody response), I consider what’s going on in Russia’s prisons, and what it may tell us about...

In Moscow's Shadows 160: Kursk as Political Actor and Allegory

18 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

As Ukraine's Kursk incursion rumbles on, what does it tell us about the political processes in Russia behind the warfighting? From how Russians r...

In Moscow's Shadows 159: The Kursk Incursion

11 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

I had hoped to not have to record a podcast this weekend, but life does enjoy its little pranks. A slightly shorter than usual episode on Ukraine&apos...

In Moscow's Shadows 158: A Hectic Week in Russia

04 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Where to start? The prisoner exchange and subsequent furore over released dissidents' statements? More arrests of senior military figures? The bi...

In Moscow's Shadows 157: No Crime and Much Punishment: the Gershkovich Case and recent books on Russia's prisons

28 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich sentenced to 16 years on what I consider wholly spurious espionage charges (and I explain why I thi...

In Moscow's Shadows 156: Are Putin's Praetorians up to the challenges of the future?

21 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Rosgvardiya, the National Guard, is the final backstop of Putin's rule, the public order force on which he relies to control the streets.* Ho...

In Moscow's Shadows 155: Putin's Shadow War on the West

13 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The claim that Russian intelligence planned to murder a German industrialist highlights the Kremlin's escalating campaign of mayhem and disruptio...

In Moscow's Shadows 154: What (if anything) does the Labour Party victory in the UK mean for Ukraine and Russia?

06 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Will the change in government in London and Sir Keir Starmer's elevation to prime minister  mean anything for Kyiv and Moscow? Are there lessons...

In Moscow's Shadows 153: Geopolitics, Nepotism, Terror and Assassination... (all the nice things)

30 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A compilation of current issues, which will nonetheless somehow connect:The Trump-Biden debate: what does the Kremlin really want?Nepotism: why are th...

In Moscow's Shadows 152: Prigozhin's Mutiny, One Year On

23 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Exactly one year after Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army began its mutiny, what has changed, and what can be learned? And why are so many Russian...