Inside Business with Ciaran Hancock
Inflation remains steady; and Conor Pope’s energy saving tips
29 Apr 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hello, this is Ciaran Hancock. Welcome to Inside Business. This week I'm joined in studio by Cliff Taylor and Conor Pope to talk about rising consumer prices. A little later Conor Pope will offer some tips on how to reduce your home energy bills. But first Cliff Taylor reacts to CSO data showing that Irish inflation rose by 3.6% in April.
On the plus side that was the same level as in March but it's still elevated with the prospect of further rises if there's no end in sight to the Middle East conflict. So I began by asking Cliff to give me his take on the latest inflation figures.
Here we go. It's about as good as we might have expected at 3.6%. And I suppose, again, looking back to the last time inflation took hold in 2022, there was already a bit of an uplift because of COVID. And then the energy prices were added on top of that after the Ukraine war. And prices went mad, peaking at, I think, 8.5%, 9% annual rate. So, you know, we're not in that kind of territory now.
3.5%, 3.6% is troublesome for the government for sure. It's going to ease into wage increases, it's going to lead to more demands from the public sector unions and it could go up further over the rest of the year.
Chapter 2: What are the latest inflation figures in Ireland?
Now I suppose there's two factors to watch. in trying to judge what's going to happen. One is, of course, what happens in the Middle East, what happens to oil prices. They've gone up a bit again. Brent's kind of around $110, $112 a barrel. Because this thing is dragging on, there isn't wide-scale fighting going on between the US and Iran, but nor is there a solution or one apparently in sight.
The Iranians presented a proposal last weekend. Donald Trump has said he doesn't like it. It's very hard for us to know what's going on behind the scenes. Clearly, Trump wants to get this fixed.
He probably wants to get it fixed before he goes to see the Chinese President Xi in the middle of May, ideally, or at least some of the heat taken out of it, because otherwise that meeting could be a bit awkward diplomatically for both sides and it's a really big deal from both of their points of view. But whether that can happen or not, we don't know.
Iran may have an incentive to continue on blocking the strait. So there is that risk of oil and gas prices remaining high and going higher. And who knows how much higher if things did get bad again. The second... thing I think to look out for is the kind of spread of inflation through the economy. So we've had the first hit, if you like, through what we're seeing at the petrol pumps.
Yeah, so energy prices according to the CSO estimated to have climbed by 15.5% year on year, 2.6% up on the month. Maybe better news on food prices, up 2% annually and food prices have been rising.
They've been problematic, all right.
They've been problematic, yeah, over the past year or so. But up 0.3% on the past month. So maybe some good news there. I just wonder in terms of energy prices, the government supports would have been kicking in around that time.
Yeah, I was just looking at the CSO notes. So I think it picked up some of them, but not all of them. So that will be a factor for sure. And I suppose the danger for the government is that it's seen to, you know, it has to chase this as the year goes on if prices keep going up. I wish to remember that government supports are only put in place up to the summer so far.
So are they going to have to be extended? Quite likely.
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Chapter 3: How do geopolitical events affect energy prices?
So while oil isn't by any shout as big as it was 30, 40, 50 years ago in terms of businesses, electricity obviously is. So that's the next... the next round, if you like, and the implications of that. So the risk is that energy costs and higher inflation spreads through the economy over the next few months.
The hope would be that, you know, there's some kind of a deal and the peak is a lot lower than it was back in 2022. And while it's damaging and difficult and politically awkward, it's not, you know, it's not too bad. We just don't know yet.
Now, Bank of Ireland had its latest economic assessment out in the past few days, and they've said, yes, incomes are definitely going to be squeezed as a result of what's going on in the Middle East and higher prices and so on. But we're not heading for a recession. Mind you, they did slash their growth forecast for Ireland for this year from 2.8% to 1.6%. That's quite a substantial drop.
That's Conal McQuilla who's normally on the money in these things.
Conal McQuilla Yeah, glass half empty, glass half full. I think the kind of numbers they come up with and are in line roughly with what the likes of the central bank and the Department of Finance have been saying, the economy will keep growing, but it will be growing at a slower rate than it would have been, and inflation will be higher. And, of course, that feeds into people's incomes.
The risk is... The terrible words, stagflation, you know, inflation and lower growth at the same time, which is particularly damaging. It's damaging for investment markets because everything tends to be hit and it's hard to find a safe place. And it's also damaging for households.
Fewer jobs in the economy, companies have less money to give wage increases, but yet inflation is going up and difficult politically for that reason as well. But most of the forecasts, when you look at international forecasts, you look at, for example, The indicators out of Germany in the last couple of days or the UK.
A lot of other countries are flirting with recession or worried about flirting with recession. Most of the forecasts here, because of the momentum that we've had in the economy, are that growth will continue, albeit at a slower rate. You would have to wonder if things got really bad on the oil front. So, for example...
The Department of Finance came out with three scenarios in its forecast last week. And one of them was a severe scenario in which inflation by the end of the year was 6.5%, 6.7% heading into next year. And they still had the economy growing at the same time. Now, you'd have to wonder if inflation does get that high, what kind of hit it would take on the economy.
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Chapter 4: What small changes can help reduce energy bills?
So they're saying consumer spending is still going to rise by a couple of percent this year. And one of the reasons is that a lot of households have that leeway, if you like, in their finances.
And yet if you look at the tech sector, Meta are letting people go. So there could be another 180 people if the 10% cut was introduced in Ireland as around the rest of the world. Another, I think, gets 180 rolls or something like that. They've already cut their workforce by 40% without us really noticing it over the past few years.
Covalent, which is a contractor for Meta, is letting 700 people go. We reported on that earlier in the week. And there are lots of these little job cuts. You're hearing whispers that this company is cutting and that company is cutting and so forth.
Yeah, and also rumours that companies aren't hiring at the lower end like they used to.
And AI is presumably part of this picture. It is, yeah. In the case of meta, it is.
It is. It's hard to get under the skin of it, to be honest with you. Some of it is... Obviously, AI doing jobs that people would have done before. Software development being the most obvious area where that seems to be deployed at the moment in businesses. But some of it also, for example, in the case of the big tech companies... They're spending a lot on AI. They need to save money elsewhere.
And headcount is where they're looking. And while over the last few years, while profits were booming and everything was going the right direction, they might have hired a bit loosely, if you like, and built up various roles. They're now looking in particular, for example, at support roles to see where money can be saved. And yeah, that is a... that is an issue.
It is something that is very evident if you look at the Irish job figures. So overall, they've been strong. But there is that area of the tech sector where employment has eased off. It's been a big growth contributor over the last few years. And I suppose we'd hope that that's going to continue to be the case and this is kind of a readjustment.
But it is difficult and I guess from the point of view of the businesses themselves too, it's, you know, tricky enough in PR terms, you know, you're you're highly profitable and you're laying off people so that you can be even more profitable. It's not exactly an easy message to sell, but that's the way of the world with the multinationals.
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Chapter 5: What is the impact of government support on energy prices?
There's been infrastructure damaged. It's going to take time for ships to get through the Strait.
Well, Simon Harris has been making this very point over the past few days. Even if the war ended tomorrow, the effects of it are still going to be felt into the winter.
Yeah, so I think we're facing a tricky enough situation summer and autumn. As things now stand, I don't think we're facing a 2022 style inflationary surge. Could that change? It could.
But I do think we're facing a kind of another sticky kind of increase in inflation and increase in prices that's going to cause some difficulties for the government and some hits to people's living standards and a lot of pressures leading up to the budget. If the government come out with this new spending plan, we're going to control spending better. Last December.
You don't believe that.
It's lasted, you know, how long has it lasted? A few months? They say that every year. I know.
And it's usually followed by IFAC coming out with an assessment of how government spending is out of control.
And Jack Chambers has promised some kind of levy on departments next year. The detail of which is unclear to me. Try and bring spending back under control. But, you know, there's a touch of King Canute standing on the beach and the tide coming in, you know. Spending just... remains under pressure, keeps going. And when the money's there, a lot of it is spent.
The only plus, I suppose, is that the money is still going into these two funds.
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