Inflation remains steady; and Conor Pope’s energy saving tips
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hello, this is Ciaran Hancock. Welcome to Inside Business. This week I'm joined in studio by Cliff Taylor and Conor Pope to talk about rising consumer prices. A little later Conor Pope will offer some tips on how to reduce your home energy bills. But first Cliff Taylor reacts to CSO data showing that Irish inflation rose by 3.6% in April. On the plus side that was the same level as in March but it's still elevated with the prospect of further rises if there's no end in sight to the Middle East conflict. So I began by asking Cliff to give me his take on the latest inflation figures.
Here we go. It's about as good as we might have expected at 3.6%. And I suppose, again, looking back to the last time inflation took hold in 2022, there was already a bit of an uplift because of COVID. And then the energy prices were added on top of that after the Ukraine war. And prices went mad, peaking at, I think, 8.5%, 9% annual rate. So, you know, we're not in that kind of territory now. 3.5%, 3.6% is troublesome for the government for sure. It's going to ease into wage increases, it's going to lead to more demands from the public sector unions and it could go up further over the rest of the year.
What are the latest inflation figures in Ireland?
Now I suppose there's two factors to watch. in trying to judge what's going to happen. One is, of course, what happens in the Middle East, what happens to oil prices. They've gone up a bit again. Brent's kind of around $110, $112 a barrel. Because this thing is dragging on, there isn't wide-scale fighting going on between the US and Iran, but nor is there a solution or one apparently in sight. The Iranians presented a proposal last weekend. Donald Trump has said he doesn't like it. It's very hard for us to know what's going on behind the scenes. Clearly, Trump wants to get this fixed. He probably wants to get it fixed before he goes to see the Chinese President Xi in the middle of May, ideally, or at least some of the heat taken out of it, because otherwise that meeting could be a bit awkward diplomatically for both sides and it's a really big deal from both of their points of view.
But whether that can happen or not, we don't know. Iran may have an incentive to continue on blocking the strait. So there is that risk of oil and gas prices remaining high and going higher. And who knows how much higher if things did get bad again. The second... thing I think to look out for is the kind of spread of inflation through the economy. So we've had the first hit, if you like, through what we're seeing at the petrol pumps.
Yeah, so energy prices according to the CSO estimated to have climbed by 15.5% year on year, 2.6% up on the month. Maybe better news on food prices, up 2% annually and food prices have been rising.
They've been problematic, all right.
They've been problematic, yeah, over the past year or so. But up 0.3% on the past month. So maybe some good news there. I just wonder in terms of energy prices, the government supports would have been kicking in around that time.
Yeah, I was just looking at the CSO notes. So I think it picked up some of them, but not all of them. So that will be a factor for sure. And I suppose the danger for the government is that it's seen to, you know, it has to chase this as the year goes on if prices keep going up. I wish to remember that government supports are only put in place up to the summer so far. So are they going to have to be extended? Quite likely.
They've been trying to manage that message in the last few days.
Simon Harris has been out talking about it. It's a difficult one for them and then you've October and the budget and demands building up there as well. So I think the risk for them is that the inflationary shock kind of spreads through the economy. So the next thing to watch would be electricity prices. So gas prices have gone up. Wholesale gas prices have gone up, rather.
At a consumer level, they haven't gone up yet, though.
No, they haven't. So gas is obviously a big input into making electricity. And a lot of houses use gas as well. So those increases haven't been passed on yet.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:02–1:16
2
What are the latest inflation figures in Ireland?
1:16–4:21
3
How do geopolitical events affect energy prices?
4:21–7:30
4
What small changes can help reduce energy bills?
7:30–13:29
5
What is the impact of government support on energy prices?
13:29–31:08
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from Inside Business with Ciaran Hancock
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