Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
From New York Times Opinion, I'm Ross Douthat, and this is Interesting Times.
Chapter 2: How does India compare to China in terms of development?
Right now, 21st century geopolitics seems like it's defined by the struggle between America and China. But the major power with the world's fastest growing economy and largest population isn't China, it's India.
And right now, India has a unique role in global politics, doing deals with Europe one day and with Donald Trump the next, all while maintaining a strong partnership with Vladimir Putin's Russia. Its large and spreading diaspora gives it a unique cultural influence around the world, one that may only increase as other major powers grow old and people remain India's most important export.
Chapter 3: What is referred to as the 'mother of all trade deals'?
My guest today is a prominent international relations scholar who's written about what he calls a multiplex world order, a future where diverse powers compete to shape the world. I wanted to talk to him about India's role in this order and also whether there might be an Indian century waiting to be born. Amitav Acharya, welcome to Interesting Times. Thank you very much. I'm glad to be here.
So I want to talk today about two big related subjects, which are India as a great power in its own right, and also the impact of the Indian diaspora of India on the move on the entire world.
Chapter 4: What is India's approach to foreign policy in a multipolar world?
But I thought we could start with the story of the last 25 years that I think a lot of Americans who think about the world and great power competition have in their minds, which is a story where both India and China have modernized, have developed, have grown, but China has had the faster path. China has sort of roared to global prominence, and India has taken a slower path.
So could you just talk about... India's path to development and power just over the last couple decades and what that looks like.
I think you're absolutely right that India's path toward economic development, even strategic role, is slower to evolve. But let's not forget history.
Chapter 5: What is India's grand strategy for global influence?
India was actually a major power, and India actually had a much bigger imprint on, at least on Asian international relations in the 1940s and 50s, where China was just... getting settled into its communist government. But then India and China almost went parallel in terms of development, but then China took off. So there is always this India-China story, narrative, comparing these two.
And economically, China has done very well, reduced poverty a lot more than India, but India hasn't done that badly. The last few years, actually, the growth rates are higher than China, but it started on a lower base. And India has maintained its open political system, democracy, despite some hiccups and problems.
Chapter 6: How does the Indian diaspora influence global culture?
The main problem with India has been generating employment, and this is a challenge for the current government.
But I think if the Indians are taking advantage of the trade agreements, for example, having more access to the European market, which they never had before, and reconciling with the United States and having a fairly good trade deal for India, I think that India can overcome the crisis of the global economy and also in some ways become a little more self-reliant.
I think that that would be the best-case scenario.
Talk about demographics, right? This is a frequent obsession on the show. But one of the striking things about the Chinese position right now is that China's birth rate has collapsed. Whereas India, while its birth rate has declined, is entering into what often gets called sort of the demographic dividend sweet spot, which is the period when you have a large young population and you don't have...
a large older population to support, which is going to be China's big, big problem. Why does India have a demographic advantage over China right now?
Because China, of course, now is paying the price of a very strict and a one-child policy. India never had the one-child policy. So India has more young populism coming up. But that can be a mixed blessing because you have to find jobs for these people, satisfy these people. India has to improve its educational infrastructure and employment possibility. That's not a given.
But India is more open to integration into the global markets now. So nobody would have thought that's possible.
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Chapter 7: What will India look like in 2060?
So I think if India can integrate itself more into the supply chain, and it can never be like the factory of the world like China is, but in terms of a combination of services, technology, and manufacturing combined package, India can do quite well.
Just describe the trade deal that India has just made with Europe, because it's really quite distinctive. I think the European leader Ursula von der Leyen described it as the mother of all trade deals, which is not normal European lingo. It has to do with opening markets.
Chapter 8: What are the implications of India's demographic advantages?
It has to do with opening migration. It's going to allow probably for more Indian migration into Europe. What does this mean for India and the world?
I think it's a godsend blessing for Europe at the right time when they're facing all these tariffs and threats from the United States. Because both India and the European Union are the receiving end of Trump. For Indians, it's a bit of a surprise. I mean, in the long term, because India has been very protectionist. But I think it opens up Indian...
exports a lot more, creates a new market as a time when the American market is shrinking for Indians. And so the European Union doesn't have 19% or 18% tariffs on Indian exports. Indian exporters will be very happy to have that. And also, there will be more investment with the European Union. When it has the trade deal, it will be more investment coming into India as well.
It's a great opportunity for India and a very timely, but politically also.
And more migration. And more migration, yeah. Right, which gives you potentially the sweet spot, right, where India has this potential demographic dividend. But as you said, India also has unemployment problems. But if you can have... more migration to Europe, maybe the unemployment problems are not as big?
Especially when the migration of Indians to the United States is under question because of all these restrictions of H-1B, but that's only one, all of the restrictions on migration.
Yes. So we're talking in a context where the Indian government has just negotiated successive trade deals. You know, there's been a deal of some kind with Donald Trump with the United States. But in terms of Indian companies and Indian products, what you know, if you're in Europe or if you're in the United States, like you have probably more of a sense of.
Chinese, East Asian companies as exporters, as people you buy from. What are the companies in India? What are the industries where you would imagine a more open India ends up having more of an imprint on the West?
When it comes to Europe, I think it will be agricultural products, textiles, and mechanical goods. But I think ultimately we will see India moving up the supply chain, just like China did, and also provide Europe with a whole range of products. It could be minerals. But I think, to me, the India-EU deal is a very political thing.
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