A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
My most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile. What's your gist on the coming job apocalypse? Every time we have a new technology, it automates away a bunch of jobs and then that automation unlocks a bunch of new jobs. And you don't know the new job because it doesn't exist yet. We've had that process over and over again.
Even just looking at the most advanced AI companies throughout big open AI, everyone's increasing headcount.
Why is the current moment for AI compared to 1997?
You talk to these doomers on Twitter and they would act like every big company is going to buy ChatGPT tomorrow and then in two weeks time they'll fire all their staff. These people are morons. You can't predict which things are going to be exposed.
What unexpected trends are emerging in professional services due to AI?
You can't look at a senior partner at a law firm and say, well, 17% of their work could be automated. horseshit i'm curious if you're following the anti-ai sentiment it's a big fuzzy mess yes this will change a bunch of stuff and we'll need to worry about it but that's kind of a constant we've always had that what would be a couple things you recommend people do to be more successful in this future Don't stick your head in the sand and say, I hate all of this stuff. That gives you a great feeling of moral superiority. And you can go on Blue Sky and shout at everybody about how evil AI is. Like, great, I'm happy for you. But that's not going to help. What helps is you diving into this and coming out understanding what you can do with it.
How is distribution becoming a critical competitive advantage in AI?
Today, my guest is Benedict Evans. Benedict was a longtime partner at A16Z as their in-house analyst and resident thinker. Before that, he was a longtime equity researcher. And for the past six years, he's been an independent analyst tracking the most important tech trends and sharing what he's learning. Most recently, as you'd expect, he's spending all his time on how AI is changing our lives. And in his words, AI is eating the world.
What should we understand about the job transformation caused by AI?
In this conversation, we go deep on what we're still not pricing in on the impact that AI is going to have on our lives and our work. The rise of anti-AI sentiment, the impact on jobs, where in the value chain most of the value will accrue, and tons more. If you are worried about AI or just confused about where things are heading, this conversation will teach you a lot and also make you feel better. Before we get into it, don't forget to check out lenny'sproductpass.com for a year free of some of the most amazing, hottest, most well-crafted AI products in the world, available exclusively to Lenny's Newsletter subscribers.
How are definitions of AGI evolving in the AI landscape?
With that, I bring you Benedict Evans. Benedict, thank you so much for being here. Welcome to the podcast.
Thank you for inviting me.
You just put out this deck called AI is eating the world. I want to ask you kind of the flip side of this. We all know it's a big deal. Like knowing that, what do you think people are still not fully pricing in when they think about the change that they're going to experience to their lives and their work?
An interesting way of thinking about it, I did a podcast last year with someone where I said, you know, my most controversial opinion is that I think that AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile, and only as big a deal as the internet or mobile, because clearly there's a bunch of people in tech who think, no, this is more like the industrial revolution or something. And there are a whole bunch of people underneath saying, well, he thinks this is just as big as, does he not understand how big this is? And I'm like...
Where is the real value expected to accrue in the AI stack?
smartphones were quite a big deal. The internet was quite a big deal. We wouldn't be doing this if it wasn't for the internet. So there's like one layer of, but then if you dig into that, like, If you're going to make the internet comparison, it's like we're in 1997. It's very exciting. Most stuff kind of doesn't work yet. Most of the stuff that people are going to do hasn't been built yet, and it's not really clear how any of it's going to work when it does work.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:23
2
Why is the current moment for AI compared to 1997?
0:23–0:34
3
What unexpected trends are emerging in professional services due to AI?
0:34–1:15
4
How is distribution becoming a critical competitive advantage in AI?
1:15–1:40
5
What should we understand about the job transformation caused by AI?
1:40–2:17
6
How are definitions of AGI evolving in the AI landscape?
2:17–3:11
7
Where is the real value expected to accrue in the AI stack?
3:11–3:53
8
What are the implications of the anti-AI backlash?
3:53–1:19:48
Speakers
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