Chapter 1: What are the Super Bowl LX matchup details?
Welcome to the Super Bowl special of NFL versus the spread. We are back once again from patreon.com slash NFL pick six. I always got to, like, there's 50 different patrons. I got to figure out which one it is. I'm Cab Manning.
I'm along with the man from lockbetting.com, which is going to have a ton of bets other than what you're going to get on patreon.com slash NFL pick six from lockbetting.com. That's Mr. Billy Boddy. Get going.
So, I mean... well thought out bets that I think can genuinely win. I took issue today with these guys from the Sports Gambling Podcast. They put out some content going, have fun, let your hair down.
Just spit the coin toss.
And the girls like saying, this is where the only time of the year where Spuns have like hundreds and hundreds out on like a load of like shit. And it's like, Okay, but like, this is exactly why gambling's not allowed, and why people can't do it in certain states.
And then you're not going to say what won and lost, there'll be no accountability, there'll be no spreadsheet like I'm going to put out. Like, you know, I always say people go to work, you don't know who's fucking around, and you don't know who went to work all week, and then they'd turn around and was like, I'm working all week for the Super Bowl.
You shouldn't do that, but people are not going to listen to you. Otherwise, people would not smoke and not do drugs and not do alcohol. So somebody is going to go to work all week, and someone is going to bet their entire week's wages on the Super Bowl. So you need to kind of... navigate around that.
So if you're on my service, I work under the assumption that you did work a week, and now you're relying on me to double your wages on the Super Bowl. You have to function in that capacity if you're doing gambling content. The opposite of that is, let's have fun. Let your hair down. And the guys are going, everybody says this is their Super Bowl. This is their Super Bowl.
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Chapter 2: How did the New England Patriots reach the Super Bowl?
The Super Bowl is my Super Bowl. This is where I'm just going to go nuts and bet on everything. It's like, yeah, but you're a fucking moron because you do that every week anyway. You don't have any accountability. You don't have any spreadsheets. You don't have... any kind of remorse for what you do. Like, you're not fucking betting with Monopoly money. It's real.
There's no consideration for real people. And as I said, I'm not defending people's stupidity, but you just have to assume that everybody listening is an idiot to the point where they will bet everything on what you say. So just...
I always go with that as opposed to we've got millionaires, like millionaires are listening to us and that they, you know, if they spend 40 grand, it won't matter to them. Like, that's not how I work. I don't think millionaires are listening to this. I know my subscriber numbers. I know how many people listen and how many of those convert to buying our picks.
So I already know that there's no millionaires listening to this at all.
So, yeah, I mean, I got quite a few bets out already that I wanted to jump on, which I'll be giving out and stuff like that. Like I gave out my Super Bowl pick soon as this thing happened because I thought the line would change a bit. I've seen it change a little bit, but for not, you know, drastic. The line right now is Seattle four and a half and the total is forty five and a half.
I think this line would be much bigger if people weren't scared to death of Darnold still. I don't trust May still. I don't think... May should have lost every game if there was another quarterback on the other side. They sucked against Houston. If they had Mills playing, they lose the game. If Nix isn't hurt, Denver wins the game. I think the luck finally fucking runs out here.
I don't think it's a close game either.
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Chapter 3: What path did the Seattle Seahawks take to the Super Bowl?
I don't see May doing much... when it is a real defense that he's playing. And now he has to go against a capable offense. Sean Payton, if they would have just kicked a goddamn field goal, everybody's into the fourth down craziness, which during playoffs, I get it during the regular season, you can fuck around a little bit.
But Jesus Christ, when you're in the playoffs and you need every damn point and he's not going for it and then it becomes a blizzard in the fourth, you're like, you just fucked yourself. They should have won that game. It was ridiculous. But I don't buy May. I know his season stats are great, but then look who they played and where his stats went crazy.
I don't think he has a 3,000-yard game this year. I mean, a 300-yard game this season. But when you see his stats against good teams and good defenses... It's not fucking great. So I'm looking for a lot of problems that he might have here. I'm looking at his over total for rushing because I think that's going to happen. Killed me the other week when I was making my bets.
I was going to take a rushing touchdown from him. And I got worried and I didn't do it. Meanwhile, that was the touchdown that they fucking got.
I don't see the game the way you do. I really don't. I think this wide gap, which, by the way, isn't moving because nobody I've heard is taking the Patriots. Yeah. Why isn't it seven by now?
I think it's the whole I think it's Darnold. Everyone's scared to death that he's going to be a pumpkin. Like you're waiting for that Minnesota game, you know? Right. But you say that like he's definitely not going to be. I think he's gotten over it.
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Chapter 4: What historical context is there for the Patriots vs. Seahawks matchup?
I think he's gotten over it. I think the team is more capable. Okay. Why do you think he's gotten over it? Because he's gotten this far. And before it was like he couldn't get out of a playoff game. He played any quality and they turned to shit. Now he's played quality twice.
I don't think he has. This is the thing. So you've got a San Francisco team that had beaten the Eagles and celebrated like they won the Super Bowl. And they came into that game and lost it. Division game, though. They lost the game before Darnold touched the ball. It was over. So Darnold's first possession, he was already on the winning team.
And then the following week, you had a Rams team that had been regressing every single week since around about week 14. Since they lost to the Panthers, they were never the same team. Since they lost their regular season, they were ahead against Seattle. I think that was their best performance across the last six or seven weeks. They scraped past Carolina again. They scraped past...
the Bears, who were not doing Bears things. They were not putting up the number of points that the Bears were putting up in the other games. I mean, they survived the Bears' fourth quarter comeback stuff that they were doing. So the Bears weren't the Bears. The occasion got to them, and the Rams played a really poor game there. And then they were always behind against Seattle.
Now, did calls go against them? Yeah.
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Chapter 5: What betting insights do Billi and Cav provide for Super Bowl LX?
But the defense allowed Seattle to... move the ball and do whatever they wanted to do. And I don't think Darnold played the Rams that we saw in weeks 1 to 13. I certainly know he didn't play the 49ers at 100%. So... Where are Donald's victories? Where are Seattle's wins? What's to say that the Patriots couldn't beat the Rams? What's to say the Patriots couldn't get every win that they've done?
Because I have the defenses very equal. You can't run on the Patriots. I don't think Seattle can run on the Patriots. I don't think the Patriots can really run here either. We have two callbacks with big question marks over them. I just don't...
see the five here um i really don't i think it's just i think it's such an even game are you seeing five i'm seeing four and a half i've seen four and a half like since get go and then i saw it go to five and a half and now i see it at four and a half again Yeah, I see five, but like four and a half. I mean, four and a half, five and a half, it's all dead numbers.
Like three, three and a half, six, seven, you know, seven, seven and a half, they're all different numbers. But we're in this four to six dead zone, which doesn't normally matter too much. But, I mean... What was the stat that we had? You've probably seen it's the most quoted stat of the week. And I want to get it right because I don't want to misquote it. It's about the Super Bowl underdogs.
One second, let me bring it up. I actually was anticipating doing this show last week.
Yeah, I thought so too, and then I was like, you were gone, this and that, and I was like, ah, fuck it. Unless you were like, hey, let's go. I would have went then.
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Chapter 6: How do player performances impact betting predictions?
Here we go. This century, so it's 2000 onwards, underdogs of three or more are 14-4 ATS and 5-0 ATS in the last five Super Bowls. So filtering out games that closed on exactly three, so that takes out all the three-point underdogs. Underdogs of 3.5 or more since 2002 are 11-2 ATS, and they're 7-6 straight up. Additionally, these dogs are 7-0 ATS and 6-1 straight up since 2008.
So I've got some of the results here. The Bengals were plus four against the Rams. They lost by three points, 23-20. The Eagles were four and a half point underdogs against the Patriots. They won 41-33 in 2018. In 2016, the Broncos were four and a half point underdogs against Cam Newton's Panthers. They won 24-10. 2013, the Rams were four and a half point underdogs against the 49ers.
They won 34-10. They fought, they won. 2010, the Saints were five-point underdogs against the Colts. They won 31-17. 2009, the Cardinals were seven-point dogs against the Steelers, but they lost by four, 27-23. 2008, the Giants were 12-point underdogs against the Patriots. You remember that? And they won 17-14.
In 2007, the Bears got to the Super Bowl, and they were seven-point underdogs, but they did lose 17-14. 29-17. I'll do one more. 2006, the Seattle Seahawks were four-point underdogs against the Steelers, and they did lose 21-10. I'll do one more because it covers the spread. Eagles were seven-point underdogs against the Patriots, and they only lost by three, 24-21. So that's kind
Sorry, I lost for a second. They don't get these blowouts that you're suggesting.
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Chapter 7: What are the key statistics influencing the betting line?
I mean, that's not to say they won't, because there's always a... Yeah, I mean, everything's possible, sure.
I think it's by a seven at least, though. That's my thought.
So now 14 and four, there are four. In the 11 and two, there are two. So, you know, that can happen. And if you think this is so... out of whack, that it could be in that category where it's the two in the 11-2 or the four in the 4-14, then, you know, by all means, like, that's your opinion. But I just don't see the wide gap between these two. Seattle, to me, haven't been this...
you know, this dominant force to come through, like the year the New England Patriots played the Giants. I'm trying to, like, maybe look at sort of parallel lines where teams were four, four and a half, five-point favourites. I'll look more into that closer to the game, but I don't think it matters.
I don't think this historical data matters too much, other than kind of looking into the fact that when we have these teams here and we look at these post-season records, they haven't mattered too much. I think it matters that it hasn't mattered game.
And when you look at how the coaches are going to prepare for it, and when you look at the matchup edges, I give a narrow, narrow edge to the Seahawks defense, but I don't give them any quarterback edge at all. They have the best receiver in the game in Injigba. But yeah, these are very small, very, very small edges that don't get me to five points.
Where a lot of people are going to make their money is a lot of props, and that's what we're going to have a lot of on the website. Not necessarily, you know, just winner of the game, obviously. I put money on Seattle to win, like, when the playoffs started, I bet money on Seattle. So that one's building for me with... you know, the odds and all that good stuff.
I have to do this thing called Kalshi in California because God forbid, we're able to fucking gamble fucking bullshit. I bet on Trump the other day and I won money, which was great. That's what you can do on that fucking site. It was, he had to say the word Epstein within a week and it was like five bucks got you 20. And I thought maybe he would say he and not the name ever, but he said his name.
So I won.
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Chapter 8: What final predictions do the hosts make for the Super Bowl?
You can bet on everything. It's the stupidest shit in the world. But yeah, I'll be putting up bets.
A lot of stuff I saw early was kind of looking at Kenneth Walker to just kind of keep doing what he's doing. And it was all like, he can't rush on his team, so his rushing yards line was set too high. The 80 did not stick around. The 77 I got did not stick around. It's up to you now whether you want to take player 73. I still think that's fine.
But then also they were looking at him, but he is catching the ball. He is coming up as a short receiver option, but everybody's seen it. But is it enough that he was available at one point, I think at 21.5 open? I'm not sure what it is now. It could be 25, 26, but is it really moved enough? If you have a real clear way of thinking that,
he's not going to be able to run for even... You might not even think he'll be able to rush for 60 yards. So this line's never going to move enough. But if he is coming up as a dump-off option, then how far can he move the line? Is he going to go over 30 yards? Would you still play at 29 and a half? Because there comes a point... where the books can't move anymore.
Yeah.
So it is eventually going to stabilize. I think I had a 21.5 on... And I can say this because I have to make decisions now as to whether it goes on my card for the six-pack and new customers or non-customers have to make a decision as to whether they want to play the new numbers. The numbers I have are 20.5 receiving and 77.5... over on the receiving, but
The reason why I can just come in and say this on the show is because every fucker, good or bad, came up with the same props in the first three days. So now it really comes down to, at the end, what's your alternative opinion to everybody else? Because this player in particular was hit on everything and so was Drake May's rushing yards as well.
Drake May is seen as someone who will rush around in these big games and he's going to find it difficult to throw the ball.
What's his number at now for rushing?
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