Macro Minutes
Episodes
Searching for EM opportunities
28 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Uncertainty on the path of the Iran conflict remains. The second and third order effects for the global economy have yet to be seen, but FX markets ar...
To hike, or not, that is the question
15 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Market pricing for central bank policy rates has been on wild ride. Front-end yield spiked to extreme levels during the initial phase of the oil shock...
Private Credit - a public affair?
09 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
In this European episode of Macro Minutes, Peter is joined by Marc Sanchez who is RBC’s Head of European Financials Sector Strategy and recently wro...
Weakest links!
02 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode, we examine how the Middle East conflict transmits economic shocks beyond energy markets, focusing on supply chain disruptions in Asia...
Stress Testing EMFX for Oil
26 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The episode examines the Iran conflict through an emerging markets lens, analyzing recent&...
Deja vu
11 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
In this European edition of Macro Minutes, we discuss the rise in energy prices in the wake of the Middle East conflict brings back painful memories o...
A New Circularity
06 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Concerns over the spending and investment circularity of the AI Ecosystem between chip makers, hyperscalers and data centers has shifted to a New Circ...
SCOTUS ruling EM-positive, risks remain
25 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Participants: Richard Cochinos (Desk Strategy), FX StrategistAbbas Keshvani (Desk Strategy), Asia Macro StrategistDaria Parkhomenko (Desk Strategy), F...
Diversify the Buy
19 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Over the past 6-12 months Treasury yields are rangebound, gold surged, but the USD has weakened. Despite the de-dollarization narrative, investors hav...
Introducing the new European Edition
12 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition’ we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the un...
Golden opportunity?
05 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
There seems to be a confluence of factors that have conspired to be the perfect storm for gold. Prices gains have been parabolic, the recent correctio...
Introducing RBC’s EM Pulse
28 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We are introducing our new EM Pulse publication, highlighting our views across Asia, EMEA, and LatAm in 2026. This episode features discussions from o...
Beware the cracks!
22 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Geopolitical tensions are on the rise again and have lately filtered into markets more clearly. Global bond yields started rising again, the yield cur...
2026 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates
05 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
As central banks chart divergent paths into 2026, regional opportunities and risks emerge across markets. Join our rates experts from the US, Canada, ...
Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Building success through culture and scale
19 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
RBC BlueBay CEO Eric Gerth discusses the asset manager's $700B global growth, industry consolidation drivers, and the strategic importance of scale, c...
Less Support
04 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
With the Fed signaling meaningful changes to their policy stance, what will be the cascading effects across US rates, equities, and global FX markets ...
Shutdown
02 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The US government shutdown is the latest in a long list of developments in 2025 that has injected heightened uncertainty into macro and markets. There...
Ready, Set, Slow
11 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We delve in the key macro themes driving monetary policy decisions and discuss when/if policy easing cycles will re-start, how fast they could proceed...
Gradual Easing or Bold Moves?
13 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode, we explore how central banks in Australia, the UK, and the US are responding to evolving inflation dynamics and labor market shifts. ...
Deficit Defying Spending Plans
15 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode, fiscal loosening has been a feature across many geographies and is getting an increasing amount of attention from financial markets. ...
Continental Drift
02 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode, Elsa, Peter, and Blake discuss the weakening of the USD, the outlook for the Fed and UST markets as well as the cross implications of...
Pivot Time
11 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
US policy uncertainty is sky high. Global investors own a lot of US assets, mostly unhedged currency exposure, and the natural implication is that the...
Limited Series I Special Edition Episode: Systematic Protection: How QIS Enables Responsive Defensive Overlap Strategies
28 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Strategies promising to remove human emotion from investing were once niche. Now a growing number of institutions are finding them valuable. Where wil...
Go Your Own Way
20 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Both the Bank of England (BoE) and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered 25bps rate cuts at their latest meetings but with very differing messages...
Minority Report
06 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Canadian federal election produced the third straight Liberal minority government. The pre-election campaign incorporated sizable new fiscal measu...
A Little Less Tarrified
01 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Today we break down the trade war, the dollar, equities, rates, earnings season, and what it all means for markets—plus a quick dive into Treasury r...
It's Politics, Stupid.
22 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It is a unique time for economies and financial markets - political decisions are increasingly driving economic outcomes and asset markets rather than...
Chaos Theory
11 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Today is 11-April-2025 and my name is Peter Schaffrik. We have labelled this edition ‘Chaos Theory’ and I trust most listeners do not need and exp...
Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Can Europe’s Bank Equities and AT1s comeback be sustained?
03 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A twin resurgence is reshaping European financial markets. Bank equities and AT1 bonds are both surging—can the momentum last?Participants:Janet Wil...
Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Trump’s Policies: Reshaping the Defense Landscape
02 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Explore how Trump's policies are reshaping global defense. Experts from RBC Capital Markets analyze the economic and strategic shifts in UK, European,...
Butterfly Effect
26 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The butterfly effect is where a change in a complex system can have large effects elsewhere. Indeed, US trade policies are having significant intended...
Limited Series | Special Edition Episode: Softening Regulation Supports a Positive Dividend Outlook for U.K. Banks
06 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The signals are mixed, but the outlook for the U.K economy is uncertain at best, while geopolitical risks add further potential volatility. So why is ...
Return of the Living Spread
26 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The degree to which lingering tariff uncertainty impacts both market and general economic outcomes remains unclear. Economies are evolving regardless,...
The Aftermath
04 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This weekend and the start of the trading week were heavily impacted by President Trump announcing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. They were ulti...
The Art of the Deal
28 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The biggest known unknown for economies and financial markets is what will happen with tariffs – are they just being threatened as a bargaining chip...
Bark or Bite?
15 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Will Trump’s bite match his bark on tariffs? If it does, the economic damage could be severe but central bank responses are not clear cut in the sho...
Let It Slow! Let It Slow! Let It Slow!
17 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The BoC ended the year with another large rate cut but they are expected to SLOW the pace in 2025, while the Fed has already SLOWed down after an outs...
Different Trajectories
03 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We are approaching final central bank decisions of 2024 with uncertainty about ultimate outcomes, but clear differences across jurisdictions on where ...
2025 Outlook: Macro, Monetary Policy & Rates
15 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
For macro and bond investors, 2024 has been challenging. Despite central banks cutting rates, bond yields have remained high, and country-specific mac...
Stimulus (Almost) Everywhere
17 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The ECB delivered another cut today and there is more to come, the BoC is primed to start cutting in 50bp increments and do a lot over the cycle, the ...
Super-Sized
24 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Fed delivered a super-sized rate cut to the start of the cycle last week. More likely they go back to smaller 25bp moves if labour data remains re...
Back in Sync
10 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With the Fed and ECB set to follow the BoC’s lead with 25bp cuts of their own, a number of the major central banks are now back in sync. So far, the...
Is This Time Different?
28 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There are nuances in every economic cycle but this one continues to feel different. Central banks are firmly in easing mode - the Fed will join the ra...
Volatility Galore!
07 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We have seen very large market moves triggered by the US labour market report over the last few days that have also led to quite a few market particip...
Well Telegraphed?
17 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have been pricing more rate cuts again on the back of somewhat weaker data releases, specifically in the US. Yet, central banks remain reticen...
Green Light, Yellow Light, Red Light
26 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Two G7 central banks have already cut – the ECB & BoC . Both should cut more as the year progresses while the BoE and Fed are likely to join the...
Cuts For Thee, But Not For Me
11 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The BOC and ECB both kicked off long-awaited cutting cycles last week with questions about the depth and duration of these cycles likely to drive mark...
Ready, Set, Go - Policy Divergence
28 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Two developed market central banks have already cut - Riksbank and SNB - and the BoC, ECB and BoE should follow suit over the next couple of months. B...
Data Determination
14 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have been ultra-sensitive to data for some time now, going back to market pricing for hikes starting in late 2021. More recently, several stro...
Divergence - Real or Imagined?!
30 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The latest resilience in the US has kick started a debate about how much other regions that appear to not show the same kind of underlying strength ca...
Breaking Rank
16 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Expectations for Fed rate cuts this year are wavering as US economic data continues to come in hot. But that economic performance hasn’t necessarily...
When?
02 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The question on everyone’s mind is when central banks will start cutting rates. Over the past month, market pricing has progressively gravitated fro...
The Right Balance (Sheet)
19 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
While markets are parsing through central bank communication for the timing and pace of rate cuts, the future of central bank balance sheets is increa...
Are We There Yet?
05 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
It appears that markets have retraced some of their expectations for central bank action much closer to where speakers are guiding investors - in othe...
Not So Fast
20 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Markets came into 2024 pricing in aggressive central bank cutting cycles. But continued resilience in growth and labor market data, along with some re...
Easing into Easing
06 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The narrative from central banks has decidedly shifted from the risk of further tightening to signaling the next move will be lower. To paraphrase the...
A Delicate Balance
23 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Focus continues on the timing and depth of central bank rate cuts as they try to engineer soft landings for economies across the globe. Central bank b...
Too Good to be True!
09 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Bond markets and equity markets have rallied sharply at the tail end of 2023 essentially based on a ‘soft landing’ scenario that sees inflation ba...
Let's Look Ahead
05 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As 2023 comes to a close, we shift focus to what to expect in 2024, with year-ahead outlooks released for Europe, the US, and Canada last week. Will m...
Riding the Chop
21 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The market environment over the last two weeks may be best described as chop. Yields have been bouncing around day-to-day but market narratives seem t...
U-Turn
07 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The trends in markets since June - higher yields, lower equities, wider credit spreads - pulled a sharp U-turn over the past week. Lower bond yields h...
Finding Footing
24 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Global yield curves have been moving higher and steeper despite new geopolitical risks and a dovish tilt in recent central bank rhetoric. Can bonds fi...
Higher, Wider, Steeper - What does the bond market sell-off tell us?
10 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Bond markets keep pushing higher and curves steeper - but why? It appears that a combination of better than expected macro data and central banks comm...
Bonds Unhinged
26 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The main story in financial markets is fixed income and the relentless surge in yields. We explore why yields have been rising and curves steepening, ...
Last Call
12 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We have a number of central bank events on deck, with the ECB meeting this week, followed by the Fed and BoE next week. Overall, it seems like it’s ...
Sunburnt Bonds
22 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Ouch! Bonds have been burned in low liquidity summer markets, adding to the pain (total return losses) of the past two years. The move in bond yields ...
How Long Will It Take?
25 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
With key central bank meetings due over the coming weeks at the same time, as economic sentiment data is weakening, the question of 'How Long Will It ...
Defying Gravity
11 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
A number of global fixed-income markets have broken higher as central banks are still left to deal with tight labor markets and core inflation that is...
Groundhog Day
27 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Groundhog Day was a film about the same day repeating itself over and over, which has some parallels to what is happening in markets - policy rates hi...
Extreme Dependence
13 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Hiking cycles are extending or re-starting later in 2023 than many expected for the BoC and Fed, with the terminal points heavily dependent on the evo...
Sticky Core & Right Tails
30 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Debt ceiling negotiations turned out to be a lot less dramatic than many had anticipated – still to come are congressional votes – but once the sm...
To the Limit
16 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Debt limit talks are ongoing in Washington, with financial markets already jittery on US banking concerns amid restrictive policy stances across many ...
Too much, or not enough?
02 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We have a number of major central banks meeting these next two weeks, including the RBA last night, the FOMC, ECB, later this week, and the BOE next w...
Ebbs and flows
18 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Rate volatility continues to be elevated, with policy rate expectations swinging around as determining the terminal rate and what happens afterwards i...
Seeking Calm!
04 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The last week felt much calmer than anything experienced since the SVB and CS induced turmoil over the prior weeks. Volatility is much reduced, credit...
Humpty Dumpty
21 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
It might be an overly simplistic argument, but in hindsight it should not be surprising that aggressive Fed rate hikes broke something in financial ma...
Stretch Run
07 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
As hockey and basketball enter the last weeks of the regular season, central banks themselves are approaching the end of their hiking cycles. There is...
Fooled by lags?
21 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Are markets being fooled by lags? Not unusual for this point in the cycle, some data is coming stronger and some weaker. Recently the market has taken...
What Now?
07 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The US payroll report sent shock waves through the fixed income market. Market pricing shifted aggressively - terminal pricing is now the highest in t...
Emerging Divergence?
24 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Recent months have seen widespread hikes across most G10 central banks, but the potential for divergence is high in the coming months as some central ...
Can't, Won't, Don't Stop
10 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
While upcoming policy increments and terminal values for various countries are highly debatable, Can't, Won't, Don't Stop seems like an appropriate ch...
Final Countdown
06 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
BoC/Fed/BoE/ECB are all on tap over the coming week. How high rates will go, whether there will be a quick U-turn to rate cuts in 2023 and by how much...
It's Complicated
22 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
2022 was complicated, but it was dominated by a one-sided risk event - how high would rates go. 2023 should be even more complicated; policy scenarios...
Where's Terminal?
08 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
All year market pricing for terminal rates in most countries has been a moving target and one directional - higher. Last week the Fed signaled a slowe...
Let's Get Restrictive
25 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Most central banks are at a maturing stage of the hiking cycle, putting terminal policy rates firmly in focus at upcoming meetings both sides of the A...
A Gilt Edged Crisis
11 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
A made in UK fiscal crisis has led to sharp rises in gilt yields, with the BoE's buyer of last resort interventions disappointing those expecting more...
Fault Lines
27 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Fiscal policy has cracked the UK bond market, opened fissures in the Pound, causing ruptures in other bond markets and by extension risk and cyclicall...
Full Throttle
13 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Central banks are going full throttle to fight inflation by delivering outsized rate increases over multiple meetings. Their job isn't over, and more ...
The Bears are Back in Town
30 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Many G10 central banks have moved policy rates to a neutral policy setting and are set to send them into restrictive territory with further super-size...
Yo-Yo Yields
09 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The bond market overreacted to inflation fears in June and yields overshot on the topside. July was a complete reversal (and some) as growth fears esc...
The Need For Speed
26 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Central banks are full throttle on rate increases in a throwback to the early 1980's inflation fighting era. The ultimate end game of current central ...
Dog Days of Summer
12 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The weather isn't the only thing heating up; North American central banks are expected to deliver large rate increases in July and the ECB should hike...
Too Soon To Focus On Growth Risks?
28 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
We continue in an ebb and flow between market focus on inflation and growth risks, with the latter taking more prominence in recent sessions as concer...
Aggressive Tightening And Its Impacts
14 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
After markets started to shift attention towards growth risks, hawkish central banks and still elevated inflation have re-focused attention on inflati...
Abrupt Reversals – Can They Be Sustained?
31 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Markets have sharply reserved course. Is this the start of a new trend, a consolidation phase, or just a pause before past trends resume? In this epis...
Shifting Sands in Macro & Markets
17 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Participants: Jason Daw (Desk Strategy), Head of North American Rates StrategySimon Deeley (Desk Strategy), Canada Rates StrategyBlake ...
Central Banks Strike Back
03 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Central banks Strike Back! There are clear parallels (rates vol, inflation uncertainty, aggressive central bank tightening) to the early 1980's when V...
Curve Chaos: Bond, Equity, FX Implications
19 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Bond markets have gone wild - the sell-off has intensified and the new dimension of the move higher in rates has been dramatic curve steepening. In th...
Central Banks – The Road Ahead
05 Apr 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Global central banks continue to shift more hawkish, but can lofty market pricing for tightening be realized? What are the risks and opportunities in ...
Up, Up and Away
22 Mar 2022
Contributed by Lukas
A hawkish Fed added fuel to the bond market sell off, which is having repercussions across global asset markets. In this episode, RBC experts discuss ...