Many Happy Returns
Episodes
Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts
15 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Designing a retirement portfolio is one of the thorniest problems in investing. The mix of assets you choose dramatically affects how much you can saf...
Earnings Season: Can US Stocks Deliver the Goods?
08 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With valuations stretched, American stocks need to deliver the goods this earnings season. Companies must grow their profits and defend their margins ...
Payout Puzzle: Does Dividend Investing Make Sense?
01 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Many investors favour stocks that pay a high dividend, opting to live off the cash they generate. Even stingy US tech companies have started to pay di...
Should you de-risk your portfolio before retirement?
24 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A stock market crash early in retirement can leave you struggling to live off your investments. We discuss de-risking our portfolios and how to manage...
Is The Bank of England Broken?
17 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Bank of England has been criticised for its failure to foresee high inflation. A damning new report takes aim at the central bank’s forecasting ...
How To Invest a Lump Sum in 2024
10 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Investing a lump sum is a big decision that comes with great responsibility. Should you be conservative with your newfound wealth? Should you pile int...
Are Investors Rational? Lessons From the Late Daniel Kahneman
03 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Daniel Kahneman was the pioneer of behavioural economics and won a Nobel Prize for his work on cognitive biases. By explaining how a litany of psychol...
Bad Apple: The Trustbusters Target Big Tech
27 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
US regulators have swung for the fences, accusing Apple of running an illegal smartphone monopoly. But will the legal cases facing big tech firms hurt...
Bubble Trouble: Are Investors Right to be Worried?
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Stock markets have hit all-time highs in recent weeks, with bitcoin and gold joining the party. Inevitably, people ask, “Is this a bubble?!” And i...
Sustainable Investing: The End of ESG?
13 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
ESG funds lured investors with the promise of simultaneously saving the planet and achieving higher returns. But after years of inflows, investors are...
9 Things to Do Before the End of the Tax Year
06 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
With just one month until the end of the UK tax year, it’s time to review our family finances, make the most of our annual allowances and optimise o...
The Rise and Rise of Nvidia: AI Breakthrough or Bubble?
28 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Excitement about AI is powering a new bull market. Nvidia smashed earnings expectations, catapulting the company towards a two-trillion dollar valuati...
UK Recession: Investing During an Economic Downturn
21 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The UK and Japan slipped into recession at the end of 2023, and growth remains weak in Europe and China. While the US economy is booming, much of the ...
Schrödinger's Flat: How Big a Problem is Commercial Real Estate?
14 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Banks stocks have tumbled as losses mount on property loans, forcing them to set aside extra cash and slash dividends. Is the commercial real estate p...
Are UK Stocks Really a Bargain?
07 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
UK stocks have lagged global markets in recent years. Unloved by investors and underweighted by institutions, is the UK really a bargain hiding in pla...
The Best Free Investing Tools
31 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
There’s never been more information available to investors, but how do you avoid drowning in data? We’ve gathered our favourite investing tools fr...
Weird Portfolios and Wonderful Companies, with Value Stock Geek
24 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The "Weird Portfolio" seeks to sidestep market crashes while still achieving attractive long-term returns. We talk to its creator, Value Stock Geek. W...
10 Things They Don't Tell You About Stocks
17 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
To succeed at investing, you need to get the big decisions right. But the details matter too. We explore ten under-appreciated aspects of stock market...
What I learned from talking to 1,000 people about their investments
10 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Since starting PensionCraft, I’ve spoken to more than a thousand people about their finances, helping with their investing goals, strategies, and fe...
Demographic Shifts: Will Population Ageing Derail Stock Returns?
03 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
After a century of rapid population growth, the world is getting older. But with fewer workers to subsidise healthcare and pensions, some speculate th...
Soft Landings Are Hard: How Has the US Economy Achieved the Impossible?
27 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Despite all the predictions of doom, the American economy has achieved a macro miracle. Inflation has been tamed without the insidious side-effects of...
Merry Market Quizmas: Can You Outsmart Ramin?
20 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
12 tricky questions to test anyone's knowledge about money, markets and investing in 2023. Can you triumph in our Christmas pub quiz?! And in today’...
Charlie Munger's Wisdom: Profit, Polemics and Peanut Brittle
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We celebrate the life of Charlie Munger and look to learn from his wisdom. Warren Buffett's long-time right-hand man helped build Berkshire Hathaway a...
The Most Important Number in Investing
06 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Markets are full of numbers. Big ones. Small ones. Nonsensical ones. But what is the most influential number in investing? Is it the oil price? Or the...
How to Fight Investing FOMO
29 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The Fear of Missing Out tempts us all. Amid fast-moving markets and 24-hour news, FOMO can be an investor's worst enemy, derailing decision-making and...
Treasury Doom Loop: The World's Most Dangerous Trade?
22 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
What do you get if you combine the world’s most important financial market, hedge funds, enormous leverage, and doom loop dynamics? Welcome to the T...
Passive Power: Do Index Funds Hurt the Economy?
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Over decades, index funds have delivered superior returns and surged in popularity. But some claim the rise of passive investing has come at the cost ...
The Magnificent Seven: What if Big Tech Starts to Shrink?
08 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have reigned supreme this year, accounting for almost all of the S&P 500’s returns. But what if these titans ...
Are UK Investment Trusts A Bargain?
01 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Ever feel like investing in something unusual? From unlisted shares to commercial property to infrastructure, Investment Trusts could be your answer. ...
Is Buy-to-Let Investing Dead?
25 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Regulatory changes and rising interest rates have squeezed rental yields, leaving investors to wonder: Is the buy-to-let dream over? And in today’s ...
Are Government Bonds Really Risk-Free?
18 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Government bonds are considered the world's safest asset, setting the "risk-free rate" against which all other investments are judged. But with rising...
The King of Passive Investing: No Longer at the Vanguard?
11 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Is Vanguard still the king of passive investing? Vanguard pioneered passive index funds, driving down fees and maximising returns for ordinary investo...
Small caps are cheap. Why do they keep getting cheaper!?
04 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Smaller companies look much better value than the giants of the S&P 500. Yet despite attractive prices, small cap indices continue to get cheaper,...
Has the Bank of England Bottled It?
27 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, an unexpected cooling of inflation allowed the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged. But with CPI still running more than thre...
Macro Mysteries: The Shocking Revision to UK GDP
20 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised GDP figures, upending the post-pandemic economic narrative. It turns out that Britain’s e...
Advice to My Younger Self: What I Wish I'd Known About Investing
06 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
You don’t get to invest with the benefit of hindsight. Mistakes are made, and you have to live with them. But it begs the question: if you could tra...
BRICS: Bigger Is Better?
30 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
In the early 2000s, the BRICS nations were the pick of emerging markets: vast, rapidly growing economies that promised stellar long-term returns. But ...
Tales from the Trading Floor: The Truth About Investment Banks
23 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
During my 15 years in investment banking, I witnessed the brilliance of analysts, the buzz of the trading floor, and the chaos of the financial crisis...
Is Value Investing Dead?
16 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
For the best part of a century, buying cheap stocks was a reliable way to beat the market. But since the financial crisis, value investing has signifi...
The Upside of Down Earnings: Plummeting Profits and Soaring Stocks
09 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Stock markets go up because companies grow their earnings over the long term. But this year, the S&P 500 is rallying despite stocks reporting thei...
Is the China Growth Story Over?
02 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
For decades, China has been the engine of global growth, doubling its GDP every eight years. But now it faces weak demand, slowing productivity and an...
Structured Products: An Expensive Free Lunch?
26 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
What if you could invest in the stock market but not risk losing money? Yes, yes, your alarm bells should be ringing! But that's exactly what some new...
How To Stress Test Your Portfolio
19 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
How would your portfolio cope with a severe economic shock? We’ve picked out five different scenarios to stress test our finances, including recessi...
Politics vs Economics: What Politicians Misunderstand About Markets
12 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Politicians are tasked with steering the economy and spreading prosperity. But, shockingly, not all of their claims about money and markets stack up. ...
How To Live Off Your Investments In Retirement
05 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
How can we maintain our quality of life in retirement without exhausting our funds? We don’t know how long we will live, and the unpredictability of...
Mid-Year Market Review: Time To Get Off The Bull?
28 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. Central banks are approaching the end of the hiking cycle. The S&P 500 has entere...
How High Will Interest Rates Go?
20 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The UK has the highest inflation of any major economy, and markets expect the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates in response. But how high ...
The War on Crypto
14 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Binance and Coinbase with operating illegal securities exchanges. These are the two biggest names in...
Markets Are Quiet. Too Quiet.
07 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Markets are eerily calm. Stock volatility is low, and the Vix fear gauge has plunged to pre-pandemic levels. But is this the quiet before the storm? W...
How Late Is Too Late To Get Started Investing?
31 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
When it comes to investing, time is your friend. If you get started early, compound returns do a lot of the heavy lifting for you! But what if you did...
Japanese Stocks Surge: Is It Time To Buy?
24 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Japanese stocks have hit their highest level in 33 years. With markets closing in on record highs seen in the 1980s, are Japanese stocks finally about...
What Will Cause The Next Market Crash?
17 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Investing is said to involve climbing a wall of worry… so where will the next crisis come from? A good place to look for clues is the Fed’s twice-...
Stock Market Rally: Fundamentals vs FOMO
10 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The stock market has been on a tear, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% since its October lows. But is the rally supported by the fundamentals? Or ...
Has inflation finally peaked?
03 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation has started to subside but remains worryingly high across the world. Will central banks need to raise rates higher still? Will inflation fal...
Active Stock Picking Is Getting Harder
19 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Some people claim that active managers can capitalise on market crashes to beat the benchmark. But do they really save us from being savaged by bears?...
Rain or Shine: Building an All Weather Portfolio
12 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
An all-weather portfolio aims to deliver steady growth while minimising risk. Pioneered by Ray Dalio, the strategy emphasises diversification across a...
Stunted Growth: Scottish Mortgage vs ARK
05 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Growth stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride — soaring during the pandemic, only to plunge as interest rates climbed. We consider two prime examp...
Contagion: Chain Reactions and the CoCo Powder Keg
22 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Contagion can be rapid, unpredictable and destabilising. When a financial institution gets into trouble, it can cause a chain reaction, punishing inve...
Silicon Valley Bank collapse: The Fallout and the Bailout
13 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
On Friday last week, Silicon Valley Bank—the 16th biggest bank in the United States—succumbed to a bank run and was declared insolvent. With marke...
Dry Powder: Where to Park Your Cash
08 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
After more than a decade of near zero interest rates, it is now possible to earn some income from cash and short-term investments. But where should yo...
Raging Bullion: Is Gold a Good Investment?
01 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Forged in the final moments of exploding neutron stars, gold has the best origin story of any asset. To some, gold’s scarcity and history make it th...
Seven Ways to Slice the Stock Market
22 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Does growth beat value? Does equal weighting outperform? Will the US always be the leading market? Over the last 100 years, simply buying and holding ...
Love Contractually: How to Invest as a Couple
15 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
One in five couples identify money as their greatest relationship challenge. And when it comes to investing, 40% of couples disagree on how much risk ...
How to Make Better Investing Decisions
08 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
To be better investors, we need to make better decisions. With a few simple steps, we can structure our thinking and improve our investments. We all s...
Broken Records: Why are music catalogues so valuable?
01 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Justin Bieber sold his back catalogue for $200m. This follows eye-watering sales for megastars like Bob Dylan, Bruce Springsteen and Tina Turner. But ...
Smart Money: If you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy
25 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional managers dominate financial markets. Collectively, they make up 90% of trading and are sometime...
Defaulty Towers: How dangerous is the US Debt Ceiling?
18 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The United States is again toying with defaulting on its national debt. If the $31 trillion debt ceiling were breached without the limit being raised,...
Surreal Estate: How far will house prices fall?
11 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Global property is worth more than all the stocks and bonds in the world combined. It is a colossal asset class and the primary source of most people’...
Tesla: What goes up Musk come down
04 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Tesla's stock price fell almost 70% in 2022 and was among the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500. To some, Tesla is the poster child for innov...
Ready for a portfolio shakeup? What to consider before making a move
28 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
So you’ve decided it’s time to overhaul your investment portfolio. Out with the old assets and in with the new. But hold on, before you press the ...
2022 Merry Market Recap: Claus for concern
21 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
A festive round-up of the major investing stories of 2022. We consider the trends that moved the market and ask which will continue into the next year...
Don't be fooled by 'Dreamwashing'
07 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The investment world is full of attempts to milk us for fees and capital. But how is it done? Simply take a humdrum product, dress it up in exciting c...
Tricks of the trade-off: How to balance priorities in investing
30 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Investment decisions always involve trade-offs. Spend vs save. Risk vs return. There's no way around them, no matter how many times you rejig your spr...
The Stock Market World Cup
23 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Which countries will deliver world-beating returns to shareholders over the next four years? That’s the question we ask in today's unofficial and un...
The worst week in crypto history... so far.
16 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Last week saw FTX implode in a storm of allegations that culminated in bankruptcy. The failure of the second-largest exchange and standard-bearer for ...
The Long Covid Economy: Will the pandemic permanently change our society and investments?
09 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The pandemic delivered a massive simultaneous shock to the world economy. But which changes will outlast the pandemic, and should they cause us to ret...
Banana skin in the game: How to learn from your investing mistakes
02 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
It is often said that failure is a better teacher than success. This week we discuss how to live with and learn from your investing mistakes. Spotting...
Trick or Treat: Which assets will rise from the dead?
26 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
2022 has been a horror show in markets. A nightmare on Wall Street. But every crisis presents opportunities for investors. This week we look at six di...
Gilt Trip: Did UK government bonds almost blow up the financial system?
19 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The gilt market was the last place anyone expected systemic risk to almost blow up the UK pensions industry, force the Bank of England into emergency ...
Rate accompli: Are rising interest rates bad for all assets?
12 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Interest rates are rising at breakneck speed and the impact on the value of assets is profound. We look at how stocks, bonds, gold and property respon...
The Ten Commandments of Investing
05 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Everyone loves a list: Buzzfeed, Santa, even God himself. But if you had to list the ten most important investing principles, what would you choose? T...
Mini budget. Major problems.
28 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
On Friday, the UK chancellor unveiled his ‘mini-budget’ with the most significant tax cuts in 50 years. The market reaction was swift and brutal. ...
The Bond King, with Mary Childs
16 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Mary Childs (financial journalist and co-host of NPR's Planet Money) joins us to discuss her recent book The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Bui...
How bad will the recession be?
14 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Many forecasters think that recession is imminent in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind. But how deep will the downturn be? How long will i...
Will artificial intelligence transform investing?
07 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get the free months of NOA premium. Some claim that artificial intelligence will trigger the fourth in...
Is it dumb to invest in IPOs?
31 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. 2021 was a record year for initial public offerings. More than 3,000 ...
Investing in China: Year of the Bear?
24 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. Few topics divide opinion more than investing in China. The incredibl...
Currency fluctuations: Take the hedge off?
17 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium. This year has seen remarkable shifts in currency markets, with the US...
Is inflation rigged?
10 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The cost of living always attracts controversy, even before the current surge in prices. Many people believe that the true rate of inflation is consis...
Baby Buffett: How to invest for children
03 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Kids are sometimes hard-work, often fun, and always expensive. But due to the magic of compounding, a small amount of money invested when they are you...
Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money.
27 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Does it pay to be an optimist?Volatile financial markets and flaws in human psychology can cause many investors to be unduly pessimistic.Yet, remainin...
The Weirdest ETFs: Moats, Goats and YOLO
20 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
VICE. UFO. COW. Welcome to the weird world of niche ETFs. Exchange Traded Funds are an easy way for investors to buy into a basket of stocks. The last...
The Big Shortage: What happens if Russia turns off the gas?
13 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry. Russia is the continen...
Leverage: No margin for error
06 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Leverage is borrowing money to invest. It can boost your returns in good times and amplify your losses when the market turns against you. This week we...
Government bonds just got interesting
29 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Government bonds are considered the steady - perhaps even boring - investment class. But this year has seen the biggest bond crash in a generation, as...
Market timing: Signs of the top and bottom
22 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022? An...
UK Stocks: No tech please, we're British
15 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The UK stock market has lagged global indices over the past decade and struggled to attract new companies. We look at the reasons for the underperform...
This is the new oil... honest.
08 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
For decades, oil has held a critical and unique place in the global economy. Many commodities are claimed to be “the new oil” for their importance...
What is risk?
01 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
There are many different risks we have to navigate as investors, from the volatility of markets to collapsing companies to our own behaviour. How we c...
How earnings season moves stock markets
25 May 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The S&P 500 has fallen to the brink of a bear market, with companies severely punished for missing their earnings forecasts. The price-to-earnings...