The super PAC spending flooding the primaries
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Hello, everyone. I'm Kimberly Adams. Welcome back to Make Me Smart, where none of us is as smart as all of us. Primary season for the 2026 midterm elections is well underway, with votes to winnow down party candidates already held in Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Illinois. There's another wave of elections coming up in May, with other states mostly in June and August. So today we're taking a look at the money that's shaping the races so far and what those inside the world of campaign finance and campaigns in general are watching as the midterms get closer. So here to make us smart about this is Democratic strategist Tim Lim, president of Lim Consulting Services. Tim, welcome to the show.
Thanks for having me. So, Tim, you and I have spoken about campaign strategies and money in politics several times over the years. What's different about this cycle?
There's so many things, but I think the big storyline and what's getting the most coverage is the growth of super PAC spending in primaries and in politics in general.
What is the current state of super PAC spending in the 2026 primaries?
I think that we're on pace this year to have more outside spending happen than actual coordinated or campaign spending happen.
Remind folks the difference between PACs and super PACs, why it matters and how that does differ from the money that the campaigns are spending.
Sure. So you have campaign spending, which is money raised through federal or state committees that are regulated by bodies such as the federal elections commissions or state elections commissions within states. the particular state, those have contribution caps. Those have limits on how much can be given, who can give, and also how coordinated you can have the spending between a campaign and a party committee. a super PAC or outside spending, an independent expenditure, after Citizens United, the Supreme Court case that allowed for outside spenders to come in. Basically, any entity, any corporation can give as well as there's unlimited contributions allowed as well as unlimited spending allowed.
But one of the downsides, if you want to call it that, is that technically the super PACs are not supposed to coordinate directly with the campaigns, whereas, say, a campaign committee can work directly with the campaign on a strategy and ads and things. Yes. So generally speaking, how are Democrats feeling going into the midterms in terms of the money situation as well as their prospects?
I think Democrats right now, with everything that's happening both in the country as well as globally, seeing the polling numbers, the responses from the Trump administration to the ever-rising costs and the pains that people are going through, we're feeling very confident about our chances this cycle to take back the House and we might even take back the Senate.
But at the same time, the Republican National Committee came into this year with about $100 million more in cash on hand than, say, the Democratic National Committee. What is the mood like for, as best you can tell as a Democratic strategist, for Republicans heading into the midterms?
Well, I think 2024 taught us one very huge lesson, which is that you can't outspend your way out of a bad national environment. And so, you know, Democrats fully expect to be outspent by Republicans in totality this cycle. There is no doubt that the Republicans have more money than us going into it. But we're fairly confident that even though we're going to be outspent because of the prevailing winds and where things are headed from a pulling direction that we're still going to have really great results in November and that they're not going to be able to spend their way out of a pretty horrible environment that they've created.
Is there anything different about the way that money is being spent in the midterms so far, particularly in the primary races we've seen up to this point?
Yes. I mean, in cases like New Jersey 11, as well as the Illinois primaries, we're seeing a pretty outsized involvement by super PACs in these House primaries on a level that really hasn't been seen in a while.
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