Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hello, everyone. I'm Kimberly Adams. Welcome back to Make Me Smart, where none of us is as smart as all of us. Primary season for the 2026 midterm elections is well underway, with votes to winnow down party candidates already held in Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Illinois. There's another wave of elections coming up in May, with other states mostly in June and August.
So today we're taking a look at the money that's shaping the races so far and what those inside the world of campaign finance and campaigns in general are watching as the midterms get closer. So here to make us smart about this is Democratic strategist Tim Lim, president of Lim Consulting Services. Tim, welcome to the show. Thanks for having me.
So, Tim, you and I have spoken about campaign strategies and money in politics several times over the years. What's different about this cycle?
There's so many things, but I think the big storyline and what's getting the most coverage is the growth of super PAC spending in primaries and in politics in general.
Chapter 2: What is the current state of super PAC spending in the 2026 primaries?
I think that we're on pace this year to have more outside spending happen than actual coordinated or campaign spending happen.
Remind folks the difference between PACs and super PACs, why it matters and how that does differ from the money that the campaigns are spending.
Sure. So you have campaign spending, which is money raised through federal or state committees that are regulated by bodies such as the federal elections commissions or state elections commissions within states. the particular state, those have contribution caps.
Those have limits on how much can be given, who can give, and also how coordinated you can have the spending between a campaign and a party committee. a super PAC or outside spending, an independent expenditure, after Citizens United, the Supreme Court case that allowed for outside spenders to come in.
Basically, any entity, any corporation can give as well as there's unlimited contributions allowed as well as unlimited spending allowed.
But one of the downsides, if you want to call it that, is that technically the super PACs are not supposed to coordinate directly with the campaigns, whereas, say, a campaign committee can work directly with the campaign on a strategy and ads and things. Yes. So generally speaking, how are Democrats feeling going into the midterms in terms of the money situation as well as their prospects?
I think Democrats right now, with everything that's happening both in the country as well as globally, seeing the polling numbers, the responses from the Trump administration to the ever-rising costs and the pains that people are going through, we're feeling very confident about our chances this cycle to take back the House and we might even take back the Senate.
But at the same time, the Republican National Committee came into this year with about $100 million more in cash on hand than, say, the Democratic National Committee. What is the mood like for, as best you can tell as a Democratic strategist, for Republicans heading into the midterms?
Well, I think 2024 taught us one very huge lesson, which is that you can't outspend your way out of a bad national environment. And so, you know, Democrats fully expect to be outspent by Republicans in totality this cycle. There is no doubt that the Republicans have more money than us going into it. But we're fairly confident that even though we're going to be outspent
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Chapter 3: How do PACs and super PACs differ in campaign financing?
And I think that it's going to get even more chaotic as we see these incoming decisions.
Anything else that you think regular folks should be watching for? Like, I know people really probably don't even want to pay attention to politics and campaigns this early in the cycle. But what else do you think people should be watching for this midterm cycle?
we expect more money to be spent this cycle, this midterm than other midterms. The amount of outside spending coming in will be unprecedented. And yet we might, you know, probably see results that are pretty normal for a midterm election with a president's party in power. I think it just goes to show that you can't spend your way out of people feeling pretty awful.
Really, you know, they're going to, you know, Everyday voters are going to be pummeled with so many ads, so many direct mail pieces, so many both TV and digital. And it's really going to be fascinating to see if any of that spending or any amount of those ads is going to be able to change the result in a significant way.
Tim Lim is a Democratic strategist and president of Lim Consulting Services. Thanks so much. Thank you. That's it for today. Definitely reach out if you have more questions about Campaign 2026 or campaign finance. But also, if you have questions about our ongoing conflict and war with Iran and what it means for the global economy, you can send those our way, too.
We're going to be answering some of those questions on social media soon. We're at 508-UBSmart, or you can email us at makemesmart at marketplace.org. Make Me Smart is produced by Courtney Bergseeker. Today's program was engineered by Montana Johnson. Ben Tolliday and Daniel Ramirez composed our theme music. Our supervisory senior producer is Daisy Palacios.
Nancy Fargali is executive producer of Marketplace Shows. And Marketplace's vice president and general manager is Neil Scarborough.
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