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Marketplace

Consumers might see some tariff refunds — in 2036

04 May 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

0.031 - 16.237 Kyle Risdall

Marketplace is brought to you by you. Yes, the most important piece of our budget is donations from you, our listeners. We call the people who donate Marketplace investors because every dollar you give comes back to you in the form of trustworthy, grounded reporting with a sense of humor.

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16.898 - 52.171 Kyle Risdall

So please become a Marketplace investor today at marketplace.org slash donate or just click the link in our show notes. Ah, Monday, a fresh start to the week. Let's look at what lies ahead, shall we? From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdal. It is Monday today, the fourth day of May. Good as always to have you along, everybody.

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52.191 - 75.086 Kyle Risdall

I will tell you what, whatever this week brings by way of news out of the Middle East and the global economy, of which we have already had quite a bit, thank you very much, and it is only Monday. One thing the next five days are not going to lack for is economic data. The Labor Department's April jobs report upon us Friday morning is the biggie. There will be productivity numbers, also important.

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75.326 - 98.43 Kyle Risdall

Never sleep on productivity. Data on new home sales as well. This morning, we were delivered by the Census Bureau some insights into the state of American manufacturing. To wit, new orders for manufactured goods were up 1.5% last month from a month earlier. And the thing is about that data? It is no outlier. We've had some other news of late showing orders rose in April as well.

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99.311 - 117.417 Kyle Risdall

And remember, that's despite all the uncertainty surrounding the war and energy costs and tariffs, which are still very much a thing. So while you ponder why the manufacturing sector has been so upbeat lately, Marketplace's Justin Ho is on it. One category where orders have been especially strong is electronics.

117.515 - 122.524 Kristen Schwab

That category includes computers, computer storage devices, peripheral equipment.

122.904 - 125.369 Justin Ho

That's Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

125.689 - 129.496 Abhi Rajendran

He says orders of those kinds of goods are typical of business spending in general right now.

129.977 - 138.371 Kristen Schwab

Where everything that's kind of even tangentially related to this AI build-out is seeing a bid in activity.

Chapter 2: How do President Trump's tariffs impact consumers?

1245.857 - 1254.126 Justin Ho

And so if states don't have enough capacity, enough staff in those roles, or if they don't have experienced staff, It could lead these tax gaps to get even bigger.

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1254.406 - 1274.391 Kyle Risdall

Right. You say something really interesting near the end of this report that you put out. You point out that, you know, if if revenue in a given state suddenly fell by like 12 or 13 percent, which is sort of Connecticut did a study and that's what it came up with. But if revenue was down 12 or 13 percent out of nowhere, lawmakers would be going crazy.

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1274.451 - 1277.775 Kyle Risdall

And that's kind of the tax gap right in Connecticut.

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1277.958 - 1296.241 Justin Ho

Absolutely. It's in Connecticut and in the federal estimates. So out of every $8 that should be paid, only seven are. And I think the size of those numbers really shows why this is a topic that deserves more attention than it has received, that governments are always making hard choices.

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1296.301 - 1314.981 Justin Ho

Right now, they have especially hard choices because many states have budget shortfalls or long-term budget deficits, and they're talking about things like raising taxes and or cutting services such as Medicaid. And if instead governments could collect more of what they're already owed, they'd have money to spend on their priorities. They could avoid some of those unpleasant choices.

1315.362 - 1319.086 Justin Ho

But the starting point of that is really figuring out how big of a problem it actually is.

Chapter 3: What challenges are businesses facing with tariff refunds?

1319.426 - 1329.236 Kyle Risdall

Can't manage what you don't measure, right? Absolutely. Josh Goodman, he is a senior officer of state fiscal policy at the Butte Charitable Trust. Mr. Goodman, thanks for your time, sir. I appreciate it.

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1329.256 - 1330.257 Justin Ho

Absolutely. Anytime.

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1357.962 - 1384.003 Kyle Risdall

Spring has sprung, the calendar has turned, and peak wedding season is upon us once again. May through October are typically the high months, and according to the wedding planning site, The Knot, the average cost per wedding guest in 2026 is close to $300. Cue the standard warning here, by the way, about inflation possibly driving that number higher.

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1383.983 - 1392.473 Kyle Risdall

What if, though, you could offset some of that cost with paying guests? Here's today's installment of our series, My Economy.

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1393.033 - 1394.075 Kristen Schwab

My name is Jeff Besson.

1394.295 - 1395.596 Justin Ho

And my name is Karina Besson.

1396.057 - 1399.901 Kristen Schwab

We've been married for almost 20 years and we're based in San Diego, California.

1400.242 - 1427.652 Justin Ho

And we're the co-founders of Not A Wedding Crasher. So we're always trying to do weekly date nights. We usually go to the movies, the beach, comedy, and we started running out of things to do. Jeff was like, hey, I wish that we could go to a wedding. And I would reply with, well, we don't know anyone getting married, Jeff.

1428.994 - 1447.462 Kristen Schwab

And I said, wait a minute, what if there's a way you could just go to a wedding, but you're not actually crashing it, you're intentionally invited? got a developer, and we formally launched Not A Wedding Crasher in the middle of March. So couples that have extra seats at their wedding put those, let's say it's 10 seats that are available on our platform.

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