Chapter 1: What are the current job market trends affecting workers?
Tariffs are back on the program today after a short time away. We'll do jobs as well. And one more visit to Altadena. From American Public Media, this is Marketplace. In Los Angeles, I'm Kyle Rizdahl. It is Wednesday today. This one is the 7th of January. Good as always to have you along, everybody.
Hey, don't look now, but come Friday, we're going to get the December jobs report on time, which is nice. Today, we got some hints as to what it might look like. The payroll processing company ADP said private sector companies added jobs last month, 41,000 of them. Not a ton in an economy the size of this one, but... We'll take it. Also, jolts came out today.
That is, of course, the job openings and labor turnover survey, which show job openings fell to a more than one year low in November, but layoffs fell as well. It's more of that low fire, low hire labor market we keep hearing about. There is, though, something else that's important as well, and it cannot be ignored. How worried people might be about holding on to their jobs and their income.
Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman starts us off with that one.
All through the latter part of 2025, the job market was losing steam, says Bill Adams at Comerica Bank. Job growth hit an air pocket and has really been in low gear since April of this past year. And he says the working public has noticed. People are more worried about job security. They're less upbeat about the prospects of being able to find a new job.
And that is weighing on how they're thinking about their own personal finances. This is evident in the University of Michigan's consumer surveys, says director Joanne Hsu.
One of the big overarching patterns of 2025 was a broad deterioration in views and expectations for labor markets, a pretty substantial increase in people expecting unemployment to get worse in the future.
People are worried about their own incomes falling or jobs getting eliminated, or they may know someone.
Even if the consumer themselves is stable in their job, they talk about how hard the labor market is for a young person in their family trying to look for a job right now.
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Chapter 2: How are job seekers feeling about their job security?
Are they ever going to equalize?
Well, what we've seen recently actually is the Trump administration cutting back some of the tariffs, right, on food like beef and coffee and so on, because it is actually affecting people's cost of living. Again, a lot depends on what happens after the Supreme Court decision and how they decide to react to that.
But what we're seeing in terms of this gap seems like something that could be quite resilient, right?
Yeah. And that case in the Supreme Court, maybe, maybe, maybe coming on Friday. We don't know. They said they're going to have a decision on something. You obviously been doing this for a long time, general macroeconomic stuff. And you went into this with a bunch of, you know, presuppositions and expectations. Did did did your expectation did your results match your expectations?
Was there anything that surprised you?
I think the first question we had was, what exactly is the tariff rate of the US? Usually in the past, this is a fairly uninteresting question because there's very few changes in tariff rates and it's easy to just download from any site. But this past year has been crazy in terms of the number of announcements and scrapping and then exemptions and so on.
So a bit of the exercise was literally just to figure out, and we had to do that somewhat creatively, to figure out what exactly is the tariff rate that U.S. importers are paying. And though the average tariff rate, which is, you know, once you take into account what people are actually paying is 14%. I don't want to downplay the size.
14% is a hell of a lot higher than the 3% that it was before all these tariffs were imposed. And that has had an important effect on US producers and also on US consumers.
This next question, which I promise will be the last one, is it ventures into the political. But, you know, you've been around a long time. You can probably answer it. What do you expect going forward with tariffs? Do you anticipate and the caveat here, of course, is that President Trump could wake up tomorrow and throw a whole new raft of these things on.
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Chapter 3: What insights do economists provide about the job market outlook?
And I think there's another 50% in the pipeline. And that's usually how it works, right? It doesn't happen overnight. It takes a couple of years for the full effect to go through. And then after that, I don't think that is going to keep going up unless we have, you know, crazy policies at the Federal Reserve, which I'm hoping is not the case.
So this will still be one time, but it will take another round of price increases in 2026. I think we're halfway there.
Halfway there. All right. Geeta Gobindath is a professor of economics at Harvard University.
Chapter 4: What are the implications of Nvidia's new AI chips?
Her paper with her colleague at the University of Chicago is all about how much we're actually paying versus what the statutory rent on tariffs is. Dr. Gobindath, thanks for your time. I really do appreciate it.
Thanks, Guy.
I want you to turn around and tell me what you see right here on the corner of Mariposa and Lake, on this lot.
Okay, what do I see on this lot? I've been visualizing this lot for a lot of time, a long time, more than one year, years now, since I've been in this location. But what I see right now is a blank slate with sky is the limit.
Chalene Hearing lost her martial arts studio in the Eaton Fire a year ago today. We first met her back in March in front of what used to be the Two Dragons Martial Arts Studio on the corner of Mariposa and Lake Avenues in Altadena.
First, I was hurting and sad and could not believe that 30 years was gone. And then I became very... by the outpouring of people that called me and told me they were crying with me as we watched that building burn on TV.
We're standing in that exact same spot now, across the street from Joey Galloway's two buildings and Jimmy Orlandini's hardware store. Instead of scattered debris and melted steel beams, though, we're looking at what, to me, is just a smooth, dirt-covered lot. Chalene, though, sees possibility.
Down below, there's commercial businesses. And up above, there's residential spaces, apartments. Lots of windows, lots of light. Because we have a view of the mountains.
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Chapter 5: How did car sales perform in 2025 despite economic challenges?
And all the way down to downtown L.A.
She started Two Dragons with her late husband more than 30 years ago. She teaches classes now with her son. It's another of Altadena's multi-generational family businesses. Before the fire, she rented space in her building. Now she wants to own it. How are you going to make that happen? You have to raise a whole ton of money to make that happen.
Absolutely. You know it costs money.
Chapter 6: What factors are influencing consumer sentiment in the current economy?
Everything costs money.
Right?
Absolutely. Absolutely. But we will.
So right now I'm working with Greenline. Greenline Housing Foundation is a nonprofit based in Los Angeles County that provides financial assistance and education to people of color. They've bought the lot and given Chalene the right of first refusal to buy it from them.
We got the purchase of the lot done, and we are going to be coming together to work on the resources that we need to help build this thing out.
You're still teaching.
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Chapter 7: What does the future hold for the job market and consumer spending?
You're still working. You're still doing your thing, though, right?
Absolutely. Yes. Yes, I am.
Altogether, Greenline spent around $500,000 to buy the lot. That's $500,000 that Chalene's eventually going to have to pay back. She's raised more than $100,000 of that through GoFundMe. And in the meanwhile, she's teaching about a dozen classes a week online and at a park in Altadena, which has basically become her temporary location until she can get back in her studio.
When you think about what this place can be, what are you thinking about? Not just the building, but about what it's going to do.
This is the start of what this whole community is going to do. It's not just me. The small businesses here, we're working together to set up some type of collaboration. With that vision I just talked about, everybody wants it. We're all wanting it. We all need it. We all have to survive. And we have to go for the change.
Was there ever a doubt in your mind that you were going to do this? That you were going to rebuild it and start all over again?
You know... Maybe? Okay, so... Like I said, I said before this fire happened that I was going to own this. I was trying to buy it from the previous owner. So they weren't ready to sell. With the fire, it needed to be sold, and they put it up for sale. And I thought, okay, it's time. I just jumped before I even thought about, oh, how much is this going to cost me? Yeah, well. But I just jumped.
I'm like, okay. We have the energy and the capacity as people. When you lose everything and you have nothing left, then you know what? You either get busy living or get busy dying.
And we should say you've had loss, right? I mean, not just this place, but you're out of your home and you're living in an apartment. Yes, yes, yes.
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Chapter 8: How have tariffs impacted the economy recently?
You got a clean slate. It's empty. And either I sit down and cry about it or I say, what's next?
What's next hasn't changed in the past year. Businesses in this town need to come back so that the people can come back. Businesses like Chalene's and Joey Galloway's and Jimmy Orlandini's. That is how Altadena is going to recover.
Over on our morning show, David Boncaccio has been covering the residential recovery from the Eaton Fire, people on his block looking to rebuild like he is, but also people who want and need to remediate the toxic residue.
We know what we have tested positive for, which includes, oh my gosh, I couldn't even tell you all the things, asbestos, lead, beryllium, cyanide.
Lead, asbestos, cadmium. Ellen's husband, Eric, is a senior engineer for NASA.
Chromium, manganese, lithium. I may be missing a heavy metal in there somewhere. That's tomorrow on the Marketplace Morning Report on the radio, online. or, of course, on the podcast platform of your choice.
Coming up... We saw a lot of upheaval throughout the year.
You can say that again, pal. First, though, let's do the numbers. Dow Industrials down 466 today. That's nine-tenths percent, 48,996. The Nasdaq found 37 points in the couch cushions. That's about two-tenths percent, 23,584. The S&P 500 down 24 points, a third of one percent, 69 and 20 for the day.
Chevron is teaming up with the private equity firm Quantum Energy Partners to buy the international assets of the sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil. The deal is valued at $22 billion. It includes gas production, refining facilities, and 2,000 gas stations across Europe. Chevron, which is, as of course you know by now, the only U.S.
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