Markets, Mystics and Mayhem
Episodes
Desensitised
29 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The conflict in the Middle East is keeping us in limbo. We’re waiting for things to change. The fuel shortage we were bracing for seems less likely ...
Consumer says no. 404 error, economic relief not found
22 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Our inflation forecasts are on point, but we aren’t celebrating. CPI numbers out this week tell an uncomfortable story. Inflation at 3.1% is just ab...
A fragile ceasefire, a volatile market, and much more
14 Apr 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The recent cyclone has us thinking about climate change, flood maps, and insurance risk. Flood insurance is one of those administered costs that has s...
Chicken & Eggs, Tacos & Rosé
31 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
He’s back again, our reoccurring special guest Hamish Wilkinson (aka Wiklie), Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, joins us to talk...
From "low and stable" to "high and uncertain"
24 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We’re sitting down to talk about the current events in the Middle East. (And hope that nothing we say becomes (too) dated in the 48-hours it takes u...
Out of the box solutions for kiwi housing. Ft Box Design & Build
16 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Bringing external guests onto our podcast always makes for some of the best conversations. And our chat with Dan Hayworth, owner and co-founder of Box...
Just what we don’t need… more inflation
10 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We need to talk… about the war in the Middle East and the impacts on the global and Kiwi economy. Shipping traffic remains at a standstill at one of...
A simple, sensible, steady message from the RBNZ
24 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve sat down to discuss all about the RBNZ’s latest Monetary Policy Statement. February’s meeting was the first of the year, and first for new...
Talking migration, an aging population, and inflation
16 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
It’s a bit of a mix and match episode this week. We start with discussing the ugly move higher across inflation expectations. Then switch to the lat...
Dusting off the CVs
10 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
This week we’ve delved into the latest labour market stats. A fitting topic as we farewell MJ on her last episode on the podcast and her time at Kiw...
Gold and silver gains Warshed away
03 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
The gold rush has gone bust. We’ve seen a savage sell off in precious metals, just after seeing some shiny record highs. Kevin Warsh becoming the ne...
Inflation hits 3.1% but the devil's in the dirty details
28 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
New year, and we're back at it! Kicking us off - hot inflation. To a bit of dismay, Kiwi inflation ended 2025 above the RBNZ’s 1-3% target band....
Crystal ball gazing: We see a grand fix in ‘26
17 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve pulled out the crystal ball, quite literally, and gazed deep into the mists to see what 2026 has in store for the Kiwi economy!Our inner mysti...
Hammers over handbags: What Kiwi bought this Black Friday
09 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwiba...
Hammers over handbags: What Kiwi bought this Black Friday
09 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
From spam in inboxes to flooded social media feeds, we’ve just been through that time of year again – Black Friday. We’ve trawled through Kiwiba...
Is this the low in interest rates?
02 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Is this the end of the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle? We think (and hope) it is. In this episode we’re diving right into the RBNZ’s latest Monetar...
The lay of the land in lending ft Belinda Newman
18 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this episode, we’re joined by Kiwibank Treasurer Belinda Newman to unpack the current lending landscape and the state of credit demand across New...
It’s unfair. Inflation hurts some more than others
11 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In part two of our Phillips Curve double-header, we’re diving into inflation—but not in the usual way. This time, we’re looking through the lens...
Is the Kiwi jobs market at a turning point?
06 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Tune in for part one of a double-header episode - we're looking at both sides of the Phillips Curve. This week: the unemployment rate. There’s s...
Unlocking efficiency one robot at a time: How the world of logistics is changing
28 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve taken Markets, Mystics, & Mayhem on the road!In this episode, we’re live at DSL Logistics and joined by CEO John Widdows and COO Aaron H...
Biting Into budgets: The rising cost of essentials
21 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation has climbed to the top end of the RBNZ’s target band. But there is no need for panic. A reacceleration in imported inflation as well as st...
Businesses are finally being heard. The RBNZ delivers 50
14 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week, Elliot Smith, Kiwibank’s Chief Customer Officer – Business, joins us to unpack the mood across Kiwi businesses. We're diving into t...
Currency lowdown with the Kiwi southbound
30 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re celebrating our 50th episode with special guest Hamish Wilkinson, Senior Dealer in Kiwibank’s Financial Markets team, to unpack our latest F...
Just do it: 75bps needed now
23 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve changed our call. We now expect a 50bps cut in October, followed by a 25bps cut in November. The cash rate should end the year at 2.25%. Why? ...
The economics of rhinos, elephants, and crocodiles
15 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re back with part two of our special episode featuring Wildlife Economist and Massey University lecturer, Brendan Moyle. And this time we’re de...
The economics of climate change
10 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week we’re joined by a very special guest: Brendan Moyle, an environmental and wildlife economist (and lecturer) from Massey University, to del...
The Kiwi loses flight. Helpful for some, headache for others
02 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Adrian Lodge – Senior Financial Markets Dealer – is back on the pod (in familiar attire), and a lot has happened since last September. Back then, ...
Game on! The RBNZ signals 2.5%.
25 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
After two years of forecasting, praying and rain dancing for a 2.5% cash rate, the RBNZ finally signalled such a move at their August MPS. And they di...
The Tasman tug-of-war: NZ vs OZ
19 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwi exodus continues. Net migration flows are dropping fast, and departures from Aotearoa are nearing all-time highs. It’s a clear sign of the ...
Beneath the bonnet: The Kiwi job market is weaker than it seems
12 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re delving into the details of the latest labour market report. Unemployment has lifted to a five-year high. And it would have been higher if not...
The stars are aligned. Cuts to come.
05 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It’s a market-focused episode this week because, after a couple of—dare we say—boring weeks of watching markets, we’re finally seeing some big...
The regional divide widens as everything just gets better the further you go south.
28 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This has to be our favourite episode yet. Because we're talking about our favourite report - the Regional. From the top of the North Island to the...
Headline heads north. But core matters more.
22 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Inflation accelerated over the June quarter. But it wasn’t as bad as many had feared. And context is key. A strengthening in imported inflation is d...
RBNZ takes a breather. What happens next?
15 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
After six straight meetings delivering rate cuts, the RBNZ kept the cash rate unchanged at their July meeting. So, what does it all mean? Is this the ...
Why the mood is up, but momentum isn't? The state of Kiwi business
08 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Greg Byrne, General Manager of Commercial Banking, joins us on this week’s episode to share insights into how Kiwi businesses are faring in the curr...
A rich tapestry of complicated currency issues
01 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Our Financial Markets Trader, Mieneke Perniskie, joins us on this week’s episode to dive into the world of currency. Recent events and headlines sug...
Inflation is eye-watering to look through
23 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re seeing a short-term spike in inflation right now. Food prices have reaccelerated, household energy costs are climbing, and rising tensions in ...
3 mystics, 3 scenarios, and one clouded crystal ball. Revised outlook
17 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve just refreshed our forecasts for the Kiwi economy.  And by no surprises, heightened global uncertainty and a likely slowdown in global trade ...
Firms frontload, Fed waits, and friends fall out: a US special
11 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
It’s a US special this week. We know. These days most of our episodes already touch on some aspect of what’s going on over in the States, but this...
A hawk and a dove at the same time. The RBNZ cuts 25
03 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Hawkish here, dovish there. There was a bit of everything in the Reserve Bank's latest Monetary Policy Statement. And we’re delving into all the...
Behind the scenes and behind the numbers: Budget 2025
26 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ever wondered what it’s like in the day of a life as an economist on a major data release day? Well, consider this week's episode your backstage...
Urgent couriers front run an economy without green shoots
20 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This is an episode you don’t want to miss! We’re joined by Steve Bonnici, Managing Director of Urgent Couriers, for some great insights on the cou...
All labour market indicators point to weakness
12 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week we’re delving into the details of the latest Kiwi labour market report. The scars of the recession we’ve been through are still raw with...
Hitting pause. Investment decisions gathering dust on the shelf
07 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
In this week’s episode we’re joined by David Moore, Kiwibank's Head of Corporate and Wholesale Credit, to discuss the ongoing uncertain enviro...
It’s mayhem, messy and melodramatic in markets
28 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re back after a week off, and we’re still sitting, waiting, wishing for tariff de-escalation. Trade talks remain underway between several count...
Kiss the ring. Trade talks begin
14 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The US’s reciprocal tariffs have been put on ice for 90 days. Several countries are coming to the negotiating table. It’s still incredibly difficu...
Liberation day or obliteration day...it's mayhem in markets
08 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We’re delving into the aftershock of Trump’s Obliteration, sorry Liberation, Day. Markets are in mayhem with HUGE drops across equities, commodity...
Tariff turmoil drives currency markets. Where will the Kiwi dollar go from here?
01 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Our Financial Markets Trader Mieneke Perniskie joins us on this week’s episode to talk all about currency. Our call on the Kiwi hitting 55c played o...
One last goodbye to 2024. The Kiwi economy crawls out of recession
24 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We know, we know! Why are we still talking about 2024? Well, we promise this is the last time (maybe). We recently received the latest economic report...
Primary sector pulse picks up: Trade treks higher
17 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week’s episode is all about Kiwi trade. Specifically, looking at the positive movement we saw in our terms of trade at the end of last year. Hi...
Bonus episode: Investing in uncertain times. We navigate with Mike Taylor
12 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The same uncertainty and volatility from Trump 2.0 that is causing big swings in wholesale rates is also wreaking havoc across equities. We were very ...
Uncertainty, volatility, and interest rates
10 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Ross Weston, Kiwibank Head of Balance Sheet, is back on the podcast and it’s another jam-packed episode. In the wake of Trump 2.0, global uncertaint...
Unshackled property investors: Restraints lifted
03 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The housing market is prepped, primed and positioned for a pick up. Interest rates are the biggest driver of moves in the market. But recent changes t...
The RBNZ cuts 50bps. More please. The economy needs help
25 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The RBNZ cut the cash rate to 3.75%, and signalled more cuts to come. With inflation now stabilising, the economy needs relief. In this episode, we ru...
Expectations become reality. That’s the magic of inflation targeting
17 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week we’re diving into the power of inflation expectations. History has proven expectations of inflation are self-reinforcing. Expect low infla...
32,000 jobs lost in 2024, RBNZ - What are you waiting for?
10 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Unemployment is higher, employment growth remains in contraction, workers are being forced to the exits, and even total hours worked are in decline. T...
To fix or not to fix, mortgage rates in question
04 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
This week we take a look at the mortgage book across Aotearoa. In anticipation of further rate cuts from the RBNZ the book has shortened up with 81% o...
Twenty-twenty-Thrive
28 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We're back from break and feeling good about 2025. In this episode, we cover our expectations for the Kiwi economy this year - a year of two halves. T...
Keep Calm and carry Kiwi as currency crumbles
17 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
In the last episode of the year, Hamish Wilkinson is back to talk to Jarrod and Mary Jo about the Kiwi currency. They go through how the Kiwi is holdi...
Breaking down Black Friday
10 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Black Friday deals are everywhere, and it’s been hard to escape the ads since mid-November. But what’s the real impact on consumer behaviour? Join...
The Reserve Bank delivers more and less
02 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 13th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is a detailed run-down of the Reserve Bank's Nove...
It's all about commercial property
25 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 12th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi commercial property. Just l...
It's all about housing
18 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 11th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This episode is all about the Kiwi housing market.As Kiwi, we'...
A consequential cooling in the Kiwi labour market
11 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 10th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. In this episode, the Economists are talking about the cooling...
Counting the climbing cost of climate change
05 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their 9th episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. In this episode they're talking about one of the biggest iss...
How does Aotearoa compare to Australia?
29 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their eighth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The RBNZ was among the first and most aggressive central b...
The cost of living crisis comes to an end
22 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their seventh episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team cover the cost of living crisis which ha...
The RBNZ goes 50, more to come
14 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their sixth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.This week the team cover the RBNZ’s October policy decision ...
Business confidence climbing with cuts
07 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their fifth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about the confidence of Kiwi ...
Beyond China, beyond the Greenback
01 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their fourth episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.This week the team are talking about New Zealand's largest tr...
Fed leapfrogs the RBNZ and shipping's expensive
24 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their third episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem.They're talking about the US Federal Reserve, a little bit abo...
Massive migration, hindered housing & confusing currencies
17 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Kiwibank Economists are back for their second episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. This week the team are talking about the massive migration f...
Central Banks in focus
10 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Join the Kiwibank Economists and the occasional special guest on the first episode of Markets, Mystics and Mayhem. The team will delve into data, deci...