More or Less
Episodes
US election: facts or fiction
24 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford hears about the sheer volume of false claims made during the campaign. President Trump is well known for making wild statements, but has h...
Auction Theory - Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson
17 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Paul Milgrom and his former tutor Robert Wilson worked together for years developing ways to run complicated auctions for large resources. This month ...
A short history of probability
10 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford speaks to Jacob Goldstein about the unholy marriage of mathematicians, gamblers, and actuaries at the dawn of modern finance.
Spreadsheet snafu, ‘Long Covid’ quantified, and the birth of probability
07 Oct 2020
Contributed by Lukas
After nearly 16,000 cases disappeared off coronaviruses spreadsheets, we ask what went wrong. How common are lasting symptoms from Covid-19? If you su...
“Record” Covid cases, Trump on the death count, and ant pheromones
30 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Case counts in perspective, a suspect stat from the US, and life lessons from insects.
Covid curve queried, false positives, and the Queen’s head
23 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A scary government graph this week showed what would happen if coronavirus cases doubled every seven days. But is that what’s happening? There’s m...
The magical maths of pool testing
19 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford speaks to Israeli researcher, Tomer Hertz, about how the mathematical magic of pool testing could help countries to ramp up their Covid-19...
Covid testing capacity, refugee numbers, and mascara
16 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Amid reports of problems with coronavirus testing across the UK, we interrogate the numbers on laboratory capacity. Does the government’s Operation ...
Covid cases rising, a guide to life’s risks, and racing jelly-fish
09 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A jump in the number of UK Covid-19 cases reported by the government has led to fears coronavirus is now spreading quickly again. What do the numbers ...
Schools and coronavirus, test and trace, maths and reality
02 Sep 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As children return to school in England and Wales, we hear about what we know and what we don’t when it comes to Covid-19 risks in school settings. ...
Covid plasma therapy
26 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Donald Trump says allowing the emergency use of blood plasma therapy for coronavirus patients will save “countless lives” and is “proven to redu...
A-level algorithms, poker and buses
19 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
We unpick the A-level algoshambles, discover why 1.3 million Covid tests disappeared from the government's statistics last week, and for reasons that ...
Belarus’ contested election
15 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Autocratic leader Alexander Lukashenko claims to have won a landslide in the country’s presidential elections. But how can we know what really happ...
Hawaiian Pizza, obesity and a second wave?
12 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Covid-19 cases are rising in the UK - is it a sign of a second wave of the virus? We’re picking apart the data and asking how concerned we should be...
Melting Antarctic ice
08 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
One More or Less listener has heard that if all the ice in Antarctica melted, global sea levels would rise by 70 metres. But it would take 361 billion...
Covid in Africa
01 Aug 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Do we have enough data to know what’s happening on the continent? We talk to Dr Justin Maeda from the Africa Centre for Disease Control and Ghanaian...
Data in the time of cholera
25 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford speaks to Steven Johnson about William Farr and the birth of epidemiology in the 1800s.
Covid misconceptions and US deaths
18 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford talks to statistician Ola Rosling about his research into misconceptions about Covid-19. And an update on the epidemic in the US.
Sweden’s lockdown lite
11 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Unlike its Nordic neighbours, Sweden never imposed a lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus. Tim Harford speaks to statistician Ola Rosling to fin...
Why Trump is wrong about the USA’s coronavirus case comeback
04 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Are cases really rising in the US or are they just testing more? Tim digs into the data.
Why did the UK have such a bad Covid-19 epidemic?
01 Jul 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The UK has suffered one of the worst outbreaks of coronavirus anywhere in the world. We’ve been tracking and analysing the numbers for the last 14 w...
A new Covid-19 drug and a second wave
27 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The steroid Dexamethasone has been hailed a “major breakthrough” in the treatment of Covid-19. But what does the data say? Plus, why haven’t mas...
Child Poverty, School Inequality and a Second Wave
24 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As lockdown eases, why hasn't there been a spike in infections? We get a first look at the evidence for the much-trumpeted Covid-19 treatment, Dexamet...
Who Should be Quarantined?
20 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Some countries are requiring new arrivals to self-isolate, a policy designed to stop infection spreading from areas of high prevalence to low prevalen...
Quarantine, Test and Trace and BODMAS
17 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The UK has introduced new rules requiring all people arriving in the country to self-isolate for 14 days. But given the severity of the UK’s outbrea...
Antibody tests, early lockdown advice and European deaths
10 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
At the start of March the government's Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said that the UK’s coronavirus outbreak was four weeks behind t...
Keep your distance
06 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
What difference does a metre make? The World Health Organisation recommends that people keep at least 1 metre apart from each other to stop the spread...
False negatives, testing capacity and pheasants
03 Jun 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As lockdowns begin to lift the government is relying on testing and contact tracing programmes to prevent a second wave of Covid-19 infections. But ho...
Obeying lockdown, flight arrivals and is this wave of the epidemic waning?
27 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
More than 35,000 people in the UK have now officially died from Covid-19, but what does the data show about whether this wave of the epidemic is wanin...
60 Harvests and statistically savvy parrots
23 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A listener asks if there can really only be 60 harvests left in Earth's soil. Are we heading for an agricultural Armageddon? Plus we meet the parrots ...
School re-opening, Germany’s Covid-19 success and statistically savvy parrots
20 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Risk expert David Spiegelhalter discusses whether re-opening some schools could be dangerous for children or their teachers. We ask what’s behind Ge...
Social Distancing and Government Borrowing
16 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
As lockdowns start to lift, many countries are relying on social distancing to continue to slow the spread of coronavirus. The UK says we should stay ...
Vitamin D, explaining R and the 2 metre rule
13 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
R is one of the most important numbers of the pandemic. But what is it? And how is it estimated? We return to the topic of testing and ask again wheth...
Covid-19 fatality rate
09 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The question of just how dangerous Covid-19 really is, is absolutely crucial. If a large number of those who are infected go on to die, there could be...
Testing truth, fatality rates, obesity risk and trampolines.
06 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The Health Minister Matt Hancock promised the UK would carry out 100,000 coronavirus tests a day by the end of April. He claims he succeeded. Did he? ...
Climate change and birdsong
02 May 2020
Contributed by Lukas
With much of the world’s population staying indoors, there are fewer cars on the roads, planes in the skies and workplaces and factories open. Will ...
Ethnic minority deaths, climate change and lockdown
29 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
We continue our mission to use numbers to make sense of the world - pandemic or no pandemic. Are doctors from ethnic minority backgrounds disproportio...
Comparing countries' coronavirus performance
25 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Many articles in the media compare countries with one another - who’s faring better or worse in the fight against coronavirus? But is this helpful ...
Bonus Podcast: Professor John Horton Conway
23 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
John Horton Conway died in April this year at the age of 82 from Covid-19 related complications. An influential figure in mathematics, Conway’s idea...
Comparing countries, the risk to NHS staff, and birdsong
22 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
We compare Covid-19 rates around the world. Headlines say NHS staff are dying in large numbers, how bad is it? And is it just us, or have the birds st...
Superforecasting the Coronavirus
18 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Scientific models disagree wildly as to what the course of the coronavirus pandemic might be. With epidemiologists at odds, Tim Harford asks if profes...
Should you wear a face mask?
11 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Do face masks stop you getting coronavirus? You might instinctively think that covering your mouth and nose with cloth must offer protection from Covi...
Coronavirus deaths, face masks and a potential baby boom
08 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Is the coronavirus related death count misleading because of delays in reporting? Do face masks help prevent the spread of the virus? Was a London par...
Are more men dying from coronavirus?
04 Apr 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford and Ruth Alexander examine the statistics around the world to see if more men are dying as a result of Covid-19, and why different sexes w...
Supermarket stockpiling, A-level results and Covid-19 gender disparity
31 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
This week, we examine criticisms of Imperial College’s epidemiologists. We ask how A-Level and GCSE grades will be allocated, given that the exams h...
The Risk
28 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. He fou...
Coronavirus Special
25 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
We’ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelh...
Mitigation or Suppression: What’s best to tackle Coronavirus?
21 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Last week, while schools and businesses across Europe closed in an attempt to halt the spread of Coronavirus the UK stood alone in a more relaxed appr...
The mystery of Iran’s coronavirus numbers
14 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Does Iran have a lot more covid-19 cases that its figures suggest?
How much heat do you lose from your head?
09 Mar 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Every winter its the same, someone will tell you to put a hat on to save your body from losing all of its heat. But how much heat do you actually lose...
Netflix vs the environment
29 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Does watching 30 minutes of Netflix have the same carbon footprint as driving four miles?
More or Less: Superforecasting, wood burning stoves and the real story of Hidden Figures
28 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Dipping into the archive for stories on the art of prediction and wood burner pollution
Artificial (not so) Intelligence
22 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Artificial Intelligence – or AI for short – is often depicted in films in the shape of helpful droids, all-knowing computers or even malevolent ‘...
WS More or Less: Coronavirus - The Numbers
15 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
A lot has changed since our last episode covering the numbers behind the coronavirus - for a start it now has a name, Covid-19. This week news has bro...
Coronavirus, jam, AI and tomatoes
14 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Covid-19 stats, spreading jam far and wide, cooking with AI, and James Wong on vegetables
WS More or Less: How fast are Alligators and Hippos?
08 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
We all know that you should never smile at a crocodile, but rumour has it that alligators are great perambulators – at least that’s what a booklet...
Tracking terror suspects
07 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Costing counter-terrorism, interrogating tomatoes, the UK's reading age, politics and GDP
WS More or Less: Coronavirus
01 Feb 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The WHO have declared a ‘Global Health Emergency’ as health officials are urgently trying to contain the spread of a new coronavirus in China and ...
Coronavirus, emotions and guns.
31 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Fact checking claims about coronavirus and whether more guns equal fewer homicides.
WS More or Less: Dozy Science
25 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Anxiety around sleep is widespread. Many of us feel we don’t get enough. An army of experts has sprung up to help, and this week we test some of the...
Netflix and Chill
24 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The list of ways campaigners say we need to change our behaviour in response to climate change seems to grow every week. Now, streaming video is in th...
WS More or Less: Japan’s 99% Conviction Rate
18 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
The fugitive former Nissan boss, Carlos Ghosn, has raised questions about justice in Japan. The government in Tokyo has defended its system, where 99%...
Weighing the Cost of Brexit
17 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Is it possible to calculate the cost of Brexit? Gemma Tetlow from the Institute for Government helps us weigh the arguments. How much does luck play ...
WS More or Less: Bushfire mystery
11 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Have a billion animals died in Australia’s fires? And which ones are likely to survive?
Australian Animal Deaths, Carbon Emissions, Election Mystery
10 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
Tim Harford on animal deaths in Australia's fires, how many Labour voters went Conservative and are UK carbon emissions really down 40%. Plus: have we...
C-sections and sharks
04 Jan 2020
Contributed by Lukas
How many women in China give birth in hospitals, and whether it was true that 50% of births there are delivered by caesarean section. Oh, and we also ...
Presidential candidates and dementia
28 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
We talk about the age of some of the frontrunners in the Democrat nomination race and President Donald Trump and the health risks they face.Also, More...
The Simpsons and maths
20 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
We explore the maths secrets of The Simpsons on their 30th anniversary.
Koalas
13 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
As bushfires rage in Australia, the plight of the koala made front-page news around the world. There were warnings that fires wiped out 80% of the ma...
Election Special (2/2)
10 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Labour's spending plans, Conservatives claims on homelessness, the SNP's education record
Tree Planting Pledges
06 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
The UK General Election is fast approaching, top of the agenda are the political parties green ambitions and one particular initiative is garnering a ...
Election Special 1/2
03 Dec 2019
Contributed by Lukas
50,000 nurses? 40 new hospitals? Big corporate tax rises? Childcare promises? Election pledges might sound good, but do they stand up to scrutiny? In ...
Testing tomatoes
29 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Have these saucy fruits become less healthy over time?
The world’s busiest shipping lanes
23 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
A listener wrote in asking which is the busiest shipping lane in the world. Ruth Alexander tries to find out with sea traffic analyst and former capta...
Bolivia: Can statistics help detect electoral fraud?
15 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Evo Morales, Bolivia’s longest-serving leader and first indigenous president, stepped down last week amid weeks of protests sparked by a dispute ove...
Reducing your risk of death
09 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Two statistics about reducing your risk of an early death made headlines around the world recently. The first seems to be a great reason to add a four...
Unbelievable: The forgotten rape data
01 Nov 2019
Contributed by Lukas
In the United States, some police jurisdictions didn’t send off DNA evidence from people who were raped for testing in a crime lab and for uploading...
Edith Abbott and crime statistics
28 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Social worker and economist Edith Abbott and her contribution to crime statistics.
Esther Duflo and women in economics
18 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Discussing Esther Duflo, Abhijit Banerjee and Michael Kremer’s economics Nobel Prize.
The Extra Episode: Minimum wage, drinking in Scotland and identical twins.
11 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
We explore the numbers behind the new minimum wage announcements, whether drinking is going up or down in Scotland, the truth about squeezing people o...
WS More or Less: Does San Francisco have more rough sleepers than Britain?
07 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Are the shocking statistics true? and how do you count people who don't wish to be found?
New hospitals promised, aid to Ukraine, and bacon sandwiches
04 Oct 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Dissecting the government’s hospitals announcement and President Trump’s Ukraine claims.
WS More or Less: Who fought in World War 1?
30 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Were a third of those that fought for Britain in WW1 black or Asian?
Austerity Deaths, C-Sections and being struck by lightning
27 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Has Austerity caused 120 thousand deaths in the UK and does God hate men?
WS More or Less: Peaty v. Bolt: Which is the greatest world record?
23 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Using statistics to compare world records in athletics and swimming.
Dementia, inflation and shark deaths
20 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Health risks for Presidential hopefuls, falling inflation, shark deaths and salary claims
WS More or Less: Cape Town murders
16 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Are eight people a day murdered in Cape Town and is that number unusually high?
Maternal deaths, taxi driver earnings and statistical pop music
13 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Are black women five times more likely to die in childbirth? Plus making pop music.
WS More or Less: Deforestation in Brazil
09 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Has it increased significantly since President Bolsonaro took office in January?
Climate deaths, austerity and pet food
06 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Challenging the idea of six billion deaths due to climate change; plus what pets eat.
WS More or Less: Amazon forest fires
02 Sep 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Are they really 85 percent worse than last year?
Amazon fires, state pension and American burgers
30 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Are forest fires in Brazil the worst in recent times? What is the state pension worth?
WS More or Less: Ethiopia’s 350m trees in a day
26 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Were millions of trees planted in just one day in Ethiopia?
Exam grades, Chernobyl and Ethiopian trees
23 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Was your A Level grade correct? Plus were 350m trees planted in one day in Ethiopia?
Mice and mind blowing maths
16 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Re-inserting a caveat and discussing a really cool numbers trick.
Immigrant Crime Rate in the US
09 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Do immigrants commit more crime than native-born Americans in the United States?
The spread of fact-checking in Africa
02 Aug 2019
Contributed by Lukas
With misinformation so easy to spread, how can it be stopped or challenged?
Pregnancy prohibitions – the evidence
26 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
Taking a statistical look at what expectant mothers should avoid.
Missing women from drug trials
19 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
How medical testing on just men causes problems.
Zimbabwe’s economy: Are sanctions to blame?
19 Jul 2019
Contributed by Lukas
We look at politicians’ claims that sanctions are to blame for Zimbabwe’s difficulties.