Running for Cover
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What was the market reaction to the Tehran attacks on oil, gold and major currencies?
Well, too early to tell the full extent of the market reaction to the attacks on Tehran, but obviously it was bigger than anyone had expected and much sooner than expected. We'll look at all of that and the impact of the collapse of a mortgage lender in the UK on Friday. China's move to stop the rise and rise of the renminbi. And the week ahead, it's Q4 GDP for Australia and non-farm payrolls for the US this week. It's Monday, it's the 2nd of March, 2026. It's the Morning Call from NAB. Good morning. Good morning. Well, maybe a little meaningless to talk about how things were at the close on Friday. But even then, the Dow was down 1%. The Nasdaq had lost 0.9% and the Eurostoxx 50 was down 0.4% for the day.
Bond yields were also heading lower. So losing seven basis points for 10-year treasuries, down five for German bunds. Aussie 10-years lost five basis points. down to 4.65%. The US dollar was down 0.2% on Friday. The Aussie was up 0.2% to just under 71.2 US cents. That might change today, mightn't it? And the oil was already higher on Friday. So Brent and WTI both up around 2.8% and spot gold at 1.8%, silver up 6.5%. That was Friday before the attacks. The first attacks happened around 6.30 on Friday evening, U.S. Eastern Time. The only indication, well, there was a notable spike in pizza orders near the Pentagon at lunchtime on Friday. So maybe that gave people a bit of an idea. Then again at 1 o'clock in the morning when the mission was already well underway, big spikes then.
And Bitcoin, we can tell you what happened there because that saw a 3.7% fall in price after the attacks. But then it quickly reclaimed all of that and more so over the rest of the weekend. So that was then. For us, it's a little over 5.30 in the morning on Monday morning. That's when we record this. Here's NAB's Taylor Nugent. A bit too early really to tell too much, but presumably there's going to be quite a shift in markets today.
Yeah, good morning, Phil. So, yes, we're watching the open to see exactly what the wash up from all of the news over the weekend will be in terms of, you know, the market implications. As you mentioned, they're kind of Bitcoin. One thing that was trading through through the weekend initially was lower, but, you know, touched got close to 63,000, but, you know, recovered back some of those gains. Other markets, you know, Saudi Arabian equities were trading on Sunday. They were initially 5% lower. Some of those were paired, but still ended the day down 2%. So I think, you know, a risk-off reaction of some form is obviously likely, and a move higher in oil prices has to be expected
as
well.
How are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil, gas and fertilizer supplies?
As you said, there was kind of already some moves in that direction on Friday with oil prices up. up around 3%, continuing to kind of factor in the risk that we might see something like we saw over the weekend. But we're likely to see that extend. Certainly some reporting from Reuters suggests that Brent was quoted around $80 a barrel or a bit over the counter on Sunday. So we'll see how that washes up.
And a lot of that is going to be the Straits of Hormuz story, isn't it? Because 20 or 30 percent of global crude goes through the Straits of Hormuz. And whether it's closed or not doesn't really matter because insurance isn't going to cover it. So no one's going to go through. I actually looked at one of these places where you can track shipping. You can see some cargo ships all going through, but that's all. I mean, no oil vessels seem to be making it.
Yeah, that's right. So, you know, Iran is a reasonably large oil producer, but it exports around 2% of global oil supply. It's the disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz that are front and centre in people's thinking, I think. And yeah, as you say, that's about it. about a fifth of global oil supply going through there. You know, there has been some comments from Iran's foreign minister saying that his country has no intention to close the Strait of Hormuz. But certainly in practice, there's, you know, nothing, very little happening at the moment. And those kind of insurance premier implications and other things mean that, you know, that kind of, you know, the official policy may not be the most important driver of what's happening in terms of those flows in the short term.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What was the market reaction to the Tehran attacks on oil, gold and major currencies?
0:01–2:34
2
How are disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting global oil, gas and fertilizer supplies?
2:34–6:34
3
What are the implications of the UK mortgage‑lender collapse (Market Financial Solutions) for banks such as Barclays?
6:34–8:21
4
How might AI‑driven employment concerns influence inflation pressures and credit quality?
8:21–9:51
5
Why is the People’s Bank of China removing the 20% FX reserve requirement and what does it mean for the renminbi and the Australian dollar?
9:51–11:07
6
Which key economic data releases this week (Japan CPI, US PPI, European inflation) are shaping market expectations?
11:07–11:52
7
What does the upcoming week’s payrolls, Q4 GDP and RBA commentary mean for risk and asset prices?
11:52–15:32
8
How are currencies moving this morning after the geopolitical turmoil and what are the early market trends?
15:32–15:41