The Phantom Toll Booth
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Why is the Strait of Hormuz closure affecting global oil prices?
So could the upshot be things are similar to where they were before, but with everyone paying a passage fee for the Strait of Hormuz? Really? Well, uh Iran is asking a lot and Donald Trump wants a resolution. But markets are behaving like a solution is close. They're certainly not expecting things to get worse. So what will happen in the talks in Pakistan this weekend? It's Friday, it's the 10th of April 2026. It's the morning call from NAM. Good morning. So oil has climbed back up. WTI has gained four point three percent up around f uh ninety-eight fifty a bowl now. Brent is up two percent, getting up around ninety-seven, but it did peak close to ninety-nine fifty earlier. The US dollar has fallen further, it's down to ninety-eight point eight on the DXY, the Aussie up another half a percent to seventy point eight US cents.
That's more than the euro or the pound, both up about 0.3%. The yen is down. And US equities continue to climb up 0.6% for the Nasdaq, 0.4% for the SP, but down in Europe. So the DAX closed uh down one point one percent. Nabs Rodrigo Cotrill is with me today. So oil session oil prices in this session, they were climbing back up, presumably because the straight remained closed, and Israel was continuing to attack Lebanon. Uh so that obviously was uh
What are the main demands Iran is making in the proposed cease‑fire deal?
a risk for this peace deal. But now Benjamin Benjamin Yanyah has agreed to hold talks with Lebanon because he got a phone call from Donald Trump trying to rein him in and oil started heading down again. So I presume that's why we've seen oil on a bit of a roller coaster the last twenty four hours.
Uh yeah, morning Phil. The the oil prices remain quite volatile. Um and as as you know, it's the the sort of the good news is that they have gone started going down again, but um they're still higher relative to yesterday's levels. Um the the Israeli news uh in terms of uh Lebanon has been seen as a positive. Um although the language coming from Letaniahu is still very much um uh you know Yeah. Bombing them still and uh we haven't yet agreed to a ceasefire. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, we
continue to bomb 'em until the northern Israel is secure, is basically what he's saying. Yeah, so so what
is interesting is that from a price action, you look at these positive vibes coming from weaker US dollar uh uh equities going up. Um but you look at sort of the the news flow coming from Iran and um it's still you know not really major developments. You know, the positive ones of course is that the the US and Iran are still planning to talk uh tomorrow in uh Pakistan. Uh But the tensions between Lebanon and Israel are are still there. Um and uh Israel is still very, very adamant that this is not part of the ceasefire deal. Um and then when you look at the Strait of Amus, uh there's still very little flow. Only eight Iranian linked uh vessels have gone through, so it remains shut for for everyone else.
How likely is a one‑sided peace agreement between Iran, Israel and the U.S.?
Um and then when we look at the terms of the ceasefire that i you know, Iran Is proposing is is very, if you like, one sided in the sense that they still want to have protection or the the right to continue to work on the um enriched uranium. They want to charge through the Strait of Hamoose, uh they want to stop any any sort of attacks on on or guarantees that they won't be attacked again. And they also want the the Americans to leave the Middle East. So uh It it all sounds great in the sense that sure, we want to cease fire. Yeah,
we but we want it to be better for us than it was before, basically is what they're saying.
And that
as well. Yeah, ex absolutely we want to troll on its on its crossing.
So for now the good news is that th th there's a scale down intentions, but um it's difficult to see where they're gonna find a common ground.
Yeah, very difficult, isn't it? There's been a statement from the Supreme Leader, Iran's Supreme Leader Mant Yarbo Hameni, uh who's still alive, clearly, um although it was just read out on state TV, Iran is not seeking war, but will not forfeit its rights and considers all resistant fronts as a unified entity.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is the Strait of Hormuz closure affecting global oil prices?
0:01–1:19
2
What are the main demands Iran is making in the proposed cease‑fire deal?
1:19–2:52
3
How likely is a one‑sided peace agreement between Iran, Israel and the U.S.?
2:52–4:29
4
What does the “Phantom Toll Booth” metaphor suggest for the upcoming negotiations?
4:29–5:52
5
Why is Core PCE inflation rising while real consumer spending is falling in the U.S.?
5:52–7:44
6
What impact could higher oil prices have on global inflation expectations?
7:44–9:08
7
How are China’s CPI trends and German CPI revisions influencing the inflation outlook?
9:08–10:57
8
What should listeners watch for in the Pakistan talks and upcoming data releases?
10:57–12:43