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Chapter 1: What insights does Paddy share about his trip to Makerfield?
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Hotel Matsissa rakennat lomasi juuri sellaiseksi kuin haluat. Aamu meren rannalla, päivä kaupungin sykkeessä. Ostoksia tai ei suunnitelmia lainkaan. Hotel Mats Espoon Matinkylässä. Skandinaavista tyylikkyyttä, merenläheisyyttä ja pääkaupunki vain metromatkan päässä. Viivi pidempään, koe enemmän. Katso majoitustarjoukset hotelmats.fi.
And now we are four.
It's Saturday's newscast with three people who've been to make a field. And somebody who's returned from their holidays, I'm delighted to see. Yes, I'm back. Thank you very much for having me back because so much happened. You could easily give me a test to make sure I can even talk about the news. But I went to Makefield and we're here with two experts on Makefield.
Luke Trill from the pollsters, more in common. Great to be here. And Joe Pike, Joe's been keeping me company a lot while you've been away, Paddy. So don't introduce Joe like he's some kind of expert that has never been in the studio before. I'm the understudy. And we were in Makefield with Luke yesterday doing a focus group of different voters.
Now, we don't like cliches on Saturday's newscast, but Paddy, you went to the North West and something happened with a pie. Yes, so Makerfield's between Manchester, Liverpool and Blackpool. It's in the northwest of England. And I was born in Surrey and I went to buy a pie. But I was doing it at the express request of Makerfield local hero Lem Sissy, who gave me a tour. Can I ask you a question?
Just asked, there was a customer went by, said, can I ask you a question? He said, I'm busy. Do you think people are heartily fed up of talking about you know what? There is a by-election fatigue, I think, that's setting in now. Now it's, you know, a woman said to me, she couldn't go to buy a pasty without somebody asking her which way she was going to vote.
But this is the heat of election, the heat of a by-election. It's been really nice of you to stop and talk to me. and obviously you didn't really want to. So I think I must buy something. But what?
Go for a butter pie or a potato meat pie.
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Chapter 2: How could Restore Britain impact Andy Burnham's chances in the by-election?
Blimey. It's Laura in the studio. Paddy in the studio. It's Joe Pike in the studio. And hello to Luke Trill. Great to be with you. Very nice to have you here. So before we get into Makerfield, Makerfield or Breakerfield, another excuse to say, and I'm really intrigued to hear what you guys found when you were there. I haven't been, so I really want to hear what you found.
And I'm going to get busy also reading all the transcripts from all the focus groups that you've done because it's really important to hear about that. But let's look at the numbers that we have. on the possible ways where people are going to vote. Luke Trill. Yeah, so we did a constituency poll over the past couple of weeks.
So that's asking people in Makerfield how they would vote in a by-election. We spoke to around 500 people, which is about standard for that type of poll. And what we found was that Andy Burnham got 45% of the vote. Robert Kenyon was just five points behind. He's the reform candidate on 40%.
But interestingly, Rebecca Sheppard, the Restore Britain candidate, that party led by Rupert Lowe, was on 8%. So in fact, the Restore vote share was bigger than the gap between Labour and Reform. The Greens, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are all under 5%, so not keeping their deposit there. And the other thing that we found is even at this stage in the contest...
around one in eight voters still hadn't made up their mind. And they're not people who might sit it out. They were people who said, I'm going to vote, but I still haven't decided how. So, you know, there's a big margin of error on a poll like that. Lots of undecideds, a close race, Restore, you know, their vote bigger than the gap. So, you know, basically lots to play for in the final week.
So interesting for lots of reasons. But just apart from anything else, a few weeks ago, I think we talked about Restore a little bit. And if you haven't been following this closely, Restore are a party on the right of reform who came about because their leader, Rupert Lowe, had a big fallout with Nigel Farage.
And until really recently, whenever we were talking about it, they're kind of an online creation, really. But we're seeing here a sort of online froth and excitement and particular bits of the Internet actually turn into something that might be a party that gets lots and lots of real votes. Is that surprised you, Luke? It has. And I think it points to something bigger than just restore.
I think it's the changing nature of our politics, actually, that the barriers to entry, social media has basically broken down the barriers to entry to what is essentially a one man band, political parties, you say, you know, founded because. Rupert Lowe fell out with Nigel Farage and Zia Youssef.
But the interesting thing is if you look at Rupert Lowe, he has about 1.2, 1.3 million Facebook followers. It's almost twice as many as the prime minister has got. And when you speak to people, it's on social media everywhere. that they have heard about him. And that has allowed him to cut through.
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Chapter 3: What were the results of the recent constituency poll?
And so what was said to me very eloquently was... people in the north of England and in Scotland and in Wales, they look down at London and think that's what London does. London does all the sort of chattering bits that make the decisions. But actually, guess what? This is Makerfield who could pick the prime minister. So one woman put it really eloquently to me.
She stopped Lem City on the street. He's a poet. And she came up with two words or one hyphenated word, Laura, for what it feels like to be a voter right now in the Makerfield constituency. Let's Nice to see you.
Nice to see you. Yeah, I'm from the Ashton Grammar School before it was Birchall.
Okay, I was the first year of Birchall High School.
Yeah, good to see you.
We're here because your maker feels in the middle of the news. Are you fed up with it as kind of living here? I'm not fed up with it.
I'm quite excited by the buzz, but it's quite a burden, privilege to be able to vote at this time and needs to be taken seriously.
That's a poetic word, Lem. That's your job. Oh, that's beautiful. Burden privilege. Gorgeous. It's really interesting that, isn't it? I mean, forget Iowa and the States. The primary's all over there. I mean, this is an extraordinary thing, actually, by any measure.
A by-election where a man who we know wants to be the prime minister is trying to get his way back to parliament, who will probably, at some point, if he wins, maybe quite quickly say, all right, Keir, jobs are good and I managed to win a by-election. If he does, see you later. Everyone was talking about leaflets as well, Laura.
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Chapter 4: How do voters perceive Andy Burnham's intentions?
Because we focus group most by-elections, not quite as much as we've done in Mayfield. And most of the time, people won't be able to name the candidates. Most of the time, people are like, I might vote, I might not vote. And that's obviously reflecting the turnout for these by-elections. Because they tend to be lower than a general election. This is totally different.
people have views on the candidates and you've also got, and actually I think it's a slightly unhealthy way, I think a degree of disengagement is usually a sign that people are broadly content, whereas at the moment you've got people playing sort of 3D chess, people who aren't ordinarily in politics. One guy said,
Look, I would never vote Labour normally, but I know I can't get Labour out in the next few years, but I can get Keir Starmer out if I vote Labour this time. But I had someone else in another group who said basically the entire opposite of that. She said, I love Keir Starmer. I think she was the only one we found. But, you know, she said, I love Keir Starmer.
And I'm prepared to have a dud MP in Robert Kenyon, because she was a Labour supporter, rather than a dud prime minister. So she was going to tactically vote reform to help Keir Starmer. As I say, she was the only one like that. But you've got people who basically don't engage in politics really thinking this through.
And I think in general, most people kind of welcome the kind of privilege of being able to pick this and think it's very important and think there's going to be a change. But at the same time, there is a feeling, and I've heard from more than one person, Friday the 19th of June, does the circus just pack up and are we just, you know, forgotten about again?
Either because Andy Burnham becomes prime minister, doesn't come back, or Robert Kenyon is just a backbench MP. Shall we three commit to going back within three, six, nine months? Should we not be those people? Should we do the same thing all over again? Definitely. I mean, it's certainly good for scrutiny whoever wins the by-election. Because we hardly ever talk about Josh Simons anymore, do we?
And he was the MP until fairly recently.
He was the MP who said, oh, here's the thing.
You can have my seat, Andy Burnham. That's how our system works. Well, if he wins it. But the weird thing... The weird thing is, and again, this is another quirk of this by-election, almost every focus group I've done, people have had good things to say about Josh Simons. Again, you know, I've done tons of focus groups in Labour's 2024 intake seat.
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Chapter 5: What challenges does Robert Kenyon face as the Reform UK candidate?
I think the one thing everybody in the group agreed on was... having some form of scepticism about Keir Starmer. So these people were not saying necessarily you think he's a bad person or he has bad intentions, but the phrases or the words, the language that came up a lot were he's not charismatic, he's not a leader, someone said he's a middle manager, over-promoted, and there was just this...
pretty relentless negativity about his leadership and in particular also awareness about what happened this week and John Healey's resignation as the Defence Secretary. I think he has the best intent. I have a son in the army. I have a big, big interest in this and I think he's done the right thing.
However, that's the worry for me is that we're going to go through this period of turmoil in this dangerous period. So when he says he, he means Healy's done the right thing. He was supportive of Healy's decision to jump over defence funding. And you, Laura, have been digging into all of this. Yeah, I mean, so there's a piece on the website which we got some new details about.
What happened, and also we've just been talking to people about whether or not this Healey domino falling means that actually after this by-election next week, that could be kaput for Keir Starmer, because there is nothing worse for a prime minister who's put your safety and security at the top of the list to have his defence secretary, who basically everybody kind of likes in Westminster, which is very unusual, to say, you're making us less safe with your decisions here.
So what I'm told is on Tuesday... John Healy and the MOD went to see Downing Street and said, this is not enough. This is not OK. We're not going to be able to do this figure. And the figure was bouncing between 10 billion, 13 and a half billion and 15 billion, literally depending which way you counted it. But the MOD and Healy were incredibly unhappy.
On Wednesday, John Healy had a conversation with Keir Starmer about it and basically said, up with this, I cannot put. They had a late night call where I'm told that John Healy said, I will quit if you go ahead with this, if you don't budge. Recollections then vary slightly. So Healy's camp suggests that Keir Starmer kind of said, OK, well, let's both think about it overnight.
Number 10's camp say Starmer was clear that was his final decision and he wasn't going to budge. However, then on Thursday morning, John Healey didn't hear anything more. He'd been expecting and trying to get back some more feedback from Downing Street.
But by mid-morning, managed to get one of the political team on the phone, not Keir Starmer himself, but one of his team told him the prime minister wasn't budging and Healey's path and resignation was then set. But there's a lot of interesting background to this.
And I think from talking to defence sources and people kind of around the place, and you and I have talked a lot about defence spending, actually, haven't we, at weekend newscasts. The rot set in, as it was put to me, not just when the prime minister made... that promise of extra funding at the NATO summit was actually when the Strategic Defence Review, the big piece, was done anyway.
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Chapter 6: What are the voters' opinions on the candidates' past comments?
I do believe he is passionate about the people and the area.
I think he's done a lot for Manchester as such, but not so much for the fringes like ourselves.
How do you think he'd do as an MP?
I think he's charismatic, but I think he's saying a lot. I'd like to know what he's actually going to do.
So interesting, the opportunist angle there. Is that like saying I won't vote for him? Is that the same as saying I won't vote for him? Can you vote for him and think he's an opportunist? Yeah, I mean, there are certainly some people who did think that, saying what's the problem with a politician who's ambitious? And they're all like this. They're all thinking about themselves in some way.
Yeah, and again, this has been fairly consistent across the conversations we've been having with voters. There's a group who think opportunist, and I don't like it. There's a group who think opportunist, and I do like it.
And there's a group who think, no, I just think he's genuine and wants to do... And that is about the one thing that I would say, and I don't think enough people have taken this into account, but I can say quite confidently, I don't normally make predictions, but if Andy Burnham were not the candidate, this would not be a close race. Mm-hmm.
He clearly has the sort of personal vote that you don't really see in politics anymore. In fact, in that constituency poll, we also asked people about the favourability of different figures. And think of this contrast. Keir Starmer's favourability in Makerfield was net minus 48. Andy Burnham's is plus seven. So it's a 55 point net gap there.
And actually, even to be positive, I keep saying this to people, even to be positive in our current era of anti-politics, it just doesn't happen anymore. So he's clearly got something, but he's fighting against those who don't like the opportunism and the fact that, you know, demographically, this is right up there on reform's target list.
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Chapter 7: How does social media influence voter perceptions in this election?
Now, Robert Kenyon denies he is sexist, but it is the comments that some people interpret as sexist, which everyone in this focus group seemed to be really aware of, although they had different approaches to whether that mattered or not. So, in other words, they're polling very strongly. So it's not the same as saying they're down with the Greens on 3%. They're still up there.
I mean, yeah, I mean, they're still doing very well in that poll. They're within a whisker of taking the seat. What I would say is, again, I think you get a variety of camps when it comes to the comedy camp. Some people say, well, we all say silly things. You know, if we saw everyone's social media history, we'd all be unemployable.
You get another group who say, no, no, if those comments... Speak for yourself. Well, not everyone has to follow BBC codes. There's another group who say, no, if I did that in my job, I'd lose my job. Interestingly, fathers of daughters, I've noticed, have been amongst the group who are most kind of upset by it. And then you get another group who say... Fine, you make mistakes.
And I think this is the key group, and I think this is where Reform have made an error, who say, I understand people make those comments. Why hasn't he apologised for it? If he apologised, it would show that he'd learn. And I just wonder whether Reform have made a mistake in trying to learn again.
I think Reform always make mistakes when they try and learn lessons from America, which don't translate here, because obviously the Trump mantra is, never apologise, plough forward, doesn't matter. Whereas actually British voters, an apology really matters to them. And I think if he'd done that, this would be less of an issue than it is now. But as you say, clearly not disqualifying.
He's clearly going to do very well, even if he doesn't win next week. Shall we have a listen to what people had to say about him? First thing we heard about his social media, I think, wow. Sexist. despicable views about a lot of things. makes me feel very uncomfortable. Let me bring in Lizzie because you look like you have a different point of view.
Yeah, so I disagree. First off, on the comments that have come out about him, so some of these comments were made such a long time ago and the issue we've got nowadays is the media, social media makes things sound so much worse.
He's a local lad, he's a local plumber, he knows the area, he's from the area and he's not overly ambitious like Andy. He doesn't have a clue what he's doing And in a way, I feel a tiny bit sorry for him because he's been put up there and he clearly can't handle it. But yet he's being left to flounder there. People are so reasonable.
And quite sympathetic in different ways. Like there weren't people really properly going for anyone. You have Jackie there was saying, you know, I think he's had a really tough campaign. He hasn't been very good. But there is empathy for the different politicians, a bit like we had around Starmer. We didn't really like him, but we're saying, look, I don't think he's a bad guy.
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Chapter 8: What predictions are made about the by-election turnout and results?
And that is so important because you don't just want really engaged people. And certainly the end of the focus group we did on Friday, we had some cameras, they're obviously filming it, and lots of microphones. And at the end they were saying, so what are you, who are you, what's it being filmed for?
So there was absolutely no awareness that they were going to be on BBC One at five past ten explaining their views, even though, of course, they'd given sort of consent to be filmed. And that, in a way, meant that I think we got something that was far more honest and human and wasn't people thinking, oh, I want to be on telly.
Yeah, because we're living in very tribal, polarised times and this kind of echo chamber where you are wrong and you're not going to change my mind. So the idea that people are sort of happily milling around, talking to each other without knowing that they were going in to have to give a particular pitch is perhaps why they've got that generosity that you're talking about. Yeah, maybe so.
And I think also when you say, and partly you're being very self-effacing, that people who talk about politics are weird and unusual. That's true. But also, I think that applies to capital P politics. I think if you think of politics as how good your kid's school is, whether or not there's potholes in your road, how much your energy bill is, who do you want your MP to be?
Maybe, maybe not quite so much on that one. But I think actually that is a small P political conversation. And I always kind of slightly rail at, you know, most people are not following Westminster or Holyrood or the Senate or what's happening in their local council obsessively in the way that we do. But small P politics is something everyone is engaged in. Maybe if they don't even...
I wouldn't describe it that way, which is why those conversations that you lead, and I've seen loads of them, they're so important because they actually are that interface, that coalface between punters and politics, even though it's not, oh, did you see what happened to the Select Committee last Thursday weekend when somebody from the Department of Paperclips was really under pressure?
How did that happen? I know, it was so amazing. I'll tell you later. Whole podcast on it tomorrow. But I've got, because I've got, I'll add another letter to your P, which is a W. My theory is, if you could make it work, you're going to get votes. If you can take any door-steppable issue and say, this broken thing, let's call it potholes, we're going to amend them. I think that generates votes.
But no one's asking me my opinion, Luke. No one's asking your opinion. I mean, you could do a focus group with you. I think you might be a bit unusual. But the interesting thing is, at the end, the number of times I've done focus groups, and at the end, people have said, and I think this should be a lesson to politicians, The number of people said, no one's ever asked me this stuff before.
It's so nice to be asked and to talk about it. And, you know, and as Joe saw, we had people on an issue like immigration, for instance, people had vastly different views in that focus group. You know, there was, you know, one gentleman, Andy, who thought it was the biggest challenge facing the country.
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