Next Up with Mark Halperin
What Gets Ignored By the Partisans, Plus Sen. Ted Cruz on Two Different Tariff Paths Ahead for Trump
Tue, 29 Apr 2025
On the debut of “Next Up with Mark Halperin,” Mark starts with the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, the reality of the polls, what gets ignored by the partisans, how Biden's mental acuity decline cover-up destroyed the press’ credibility, the latest on Pete Hegseth and what could happen to him, and more. Plus, Sen. Ted Cruz joins to discuss the historic opportunity the Trump administration has to change the country, the two different paths for Trump’s tariff plan, what DOGE can do with the budget, 2028 Democratic contenders and more. Then Emma-Jo Morris and Marc Caputo join to discuss how the Trump administration is handling immigration and the economy after the first 100 days, the successes and failures on the border and trade, the top 5 Trump administration officials who have more power since the start of the term, and more.
Chapter 1: What is the purpose and focus of the debut episode of Next Up with Mark Halperin?
Welcome to my debut episode. Thank you for joining. It's also the hundredth day of the Trump administration and the first day of the rest of our lives together. Grateful to you for being part of NextUp. The show will come out now on Tuesdays and Thursdays. You can watch it on YouTube or listen to it on any podcast platform you prefer.
This will be a program that will bring you my best reporting and analysis. Also great guests today. We have Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a round table conversation that I hope you'll find to be a little bit different than what you see on cable and elsewhere. I'm booking some of the smartest people I know today, Emma Jo Morris and Mark Caputo.
And as always, super interested in trying to tell you what's really going on, as I said, through my reporting and my analysis and the folks we bring to you. So grateful to you for being a part of this first episode and hope you'll join us every Tuesday and Thursday right here. 100th day is, as people like to point out, an artificial construct. But there's lots going on in this administration.
It has been historic. And of course, it started well before the president took office from Election Day through the transition. And people generally see a tipping point from a period where he was active and and was dominating the conversation and getting a lot done. People now, I think, are seeing something different. The terrorists are part of it. Signalgate's part of it.
People I talk to every day can look at this administration as has been true of almost anything connected to Donald Trump in different ways.
And I'm lucky, fortunate, I get to talk every day, literally every day, including on the weekends, with smart people who think the Trump administration, flaws and all, is off to a fast start and is revolutionizing America and the world in really important and positive ways. And I talk to really smart people who think this is a disaster.
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Chapter 2: What are the challenges of truth and polarization in the Trump administration's first 100 days?
And that the first hundred days have illustrated not just the limits of Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, but their doom. Um, and it's a disconcerting thing for me because my role is not to pick between those two sides, but to try to understand it and to explain it and hopefully to bridge between the two sides as best I can.
And it's particularly confusing because as I said, I'm talking about, and two smart people, not dumb people, but smart people. And. What I generally find is that we're having what the country western star called trouble with the truth. That's to me a big part of the polarization, a big part of the failure to have any consensus. President's poll numbers are down, but they're not through the floor.
And he continues to dominate not just the Republican Party, but Washington and the national and international conversation. Doesn't seem particularly hampered by his declined poll numbers, although Democrats say that foreshadows doom in the midterms next year.
When I talk about truth, a story that continues to be so emotional for both sides is the question of this man who was deported, who here illegally, to El Salvador, Abrego Garcia. We still don't know if he's a gang member, right? Now, There are some MAGA people who say to me, of course he's a gang member and evidence has been presented that case.
But it's true, as people on the left will say, he's never been convicted. I don't quite understand the left's celebration of him. I don't quite understand the right's cavalier attitude towards the mistake that was made in sending him to El Salvador where he was put in a prison. The one country, his home country, that the American system had said he shouldn't be sent to.
But it's that not knowing the truth about whether he was a gang member. I've not had time to do a lot of original reporting on that. But from what's been reported, it's not clear. That's frustrating to me. And that's true about a lot of things having to do with the Trump agenda where there's fights. But what really bothers me more is both sides' denial of truth. Both sides' denial of truth.
Now, I'm going to talk about some examples of denial of obvious truth. Some for the left. blue, some for the right, red. And ironically, that will inflame many of you. People on the red side will not like me calling them out. People on the blue side won't like me calling them out. But I firmly believe we need a fidelity to the truth.
Now, one of the big stories about which there's dispute about the facts are it currently involves the Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth. And I'm going to talk a little bit about some news I have about Pete Hegseth and his status as defense secretary.
But the question of the facts of Pete Hegseth, some of the things that he's done or been accused of doing that could lead to his being forced out of the Pentagon is very frustrating to me because public debate should be about discussing the facts and what they mean and what to do about them rather than debating the facts. First, let me talk about Team Red.
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Chapter 3: What is the controversy surrounding Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's position?
It feels like August and September. It feels exactly what happened. It's like, oh, we got a new entrant into the race, Kamala Harris. Let's see how the polling is going to do. And my numbers, it tightened a little bit, went from Trump plus five down to about Trump plus two. And my numbers stopped there and everybody else just kept going.
So Here are these guys saying basically the polls are all wrong. They're in denial. Okay. Here's more denial. Okay. I read a tweet this morning from a conservative who wrote this. The media hates Trump more than it values the truth. The media hates Trump more than it values the truth. Okay.
There's some irony there because I've just given you an example of things where Republicans are in denial about the truth. Okay. I talked about polling. There's other examples I could give you. And if you're fair-minded, you could come up with a lot of them. The president himself said these polls are fake. They're not fake.
Doesn't mean the organizations that conducted them aren't habitually liberally biased. And that gets to where I think we have a real problem right now in trying to grapple with this question of the trouble with the truth. Because we can give lots of examples of the Democrats and the media not telling the truth.
The biggest story that the Democrats have not been honest about is Joe Biden's mental decline. And we saw that on vivid display at the White House Correspondents' Dinner this weekend. A guy named Alex Thompson won an award as one of the few reporters who wrote anything about Biden's mental acuity decline. Even he acknowledged in his remarks that he fell short and said the media fell short.
President Biden's decline? and its cover-up by the people around him is a reminder that every White House, regardless of party, is capable of deception. But being truth-tellers also means telling the truth about ourselves. We, myself included, missed a lot of this story, and some people trust us less because of it. We bear some responsibility for faith in the media being at such lows?
The problem with that is he's not being honest about what actually happened. It wasn't that the press kind of fell down on the job and wasn't aggressive enough. They actively participated with the Biden administration in covering up Biden's mental acuity decline, which was plain for all to see. They pretended it wasn't happening.
In some cases, they allowed themselves to be intimidated by the Biden team into not writing about it. And this was no small thing. This was no small thing. It was an effort to help Joe Biden win, to keep Donald Trump from going back to the White House. And it not just put their finger and thumb and forearm and kneecap on the scale,
But it destroyed the credibility with the press, with lots of people. And I heard from people all throughout the election season who said, I voted Democrat in the past, but I'm voting for Donald Trump because the press bias on the mental acuity thing was so pronounced.
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Chapter 4: How do partisans on both sides deny or distort the truth regarding polls and media coverage?
And he's done a very good job of playing by the rules that the president expects of being aggressive. What I can report here today is that his his standing in the administration is not as solid as some people believe. And it's the president and the White House press secretary have tried to signal.
There are people at the senior most levels of this administration, not counting the president necessarily, but the senior most levels under him who believe that the next time Pete Hegseth makes a mistake or is exposed to have made a mistake, he needs to go. And there are already plans underway to figure that out. Now, what are the public clues to that?
Because MAGA has been pretty supportive of Pete Hegseth. Two people who are part of the very strong outside support group of the president, Tucker Carlson, And Megyn Kelly here at the Megyn Kelly Network, they've both now done interviews with the advisors who were forced out of their Pentagon jobs and who both have said things about Pete Hegseth that are not fully supportive. They like him.
They're close to him. But they both have made it clear that they see real problems in his governance and his stewardship at the Pentagon. That's a clue. And I keep being pointed to that clue by folks to say, if two allies of the president and two people very close to Pete Hegseth, Meghan and Tucker, are doing these interviews, something is afoot.
And so what's going on behind the scenes now is a very carefully orchestrated move to say, When can he go? How do we deal with MAGA? Having told MAGA Pete must stay, that the people coming after Pete are deep staters and the liberal media and the Democrats. How do you then move the guy out without inciting some cognitive dissonance with MAGA? You need a replacement.
You need some sort of narrative that MAGA is comfortable with. Watch closely, three people. Watch Don Jr., watch Susie Wiles, and watch the vice president. All three close to Pete Hegseth. All three in a position, if they decide he needs to go, to make that happen. Watch it closely and watch for the truth. Watch for the truth. Don't listen to the lies of each side.
Now, coming up in the next segment is Texas Senator Ted Cruz, someone I've known since the 2000 Bush campaign when he was a simple, simple staffer on that campaign. I covered his presidential campaign when he ran against Donald Trump in 2016. And I had the opportunity to test his mettle. It was the game that champions play out in their dreams. Right from the kickoff, it was a bloodbath.
You know what I say right now? Dying Ted. Dying Ted. We shall see. Oh!
From the back. From the back.
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Chapter 5: How did the media cover-up of Joe Biden's mental acuity decline affect press credibility?
Mayan Ted, is that like human sacrifice? I guess that'd be Aztecs, but actually the Mayans did that too.
It didn't work. It was quick. You doing all right, Mark? Now it was down to just one goal, and there was no room for any mistakes. Moral of the story is Ted Cruz falls behind early.
There you go, and in second place builds the delegates, and this was Cleveland right here.
Life is full of moments. Some of them fly by, you forget them in an instant. Others live on with you forever. All right, that was Senator Cruz then. When we come back right after this, you're going to see Senator Cruz now. My interview with Senator Cruz right after this. Let me tell you a story now about a guy named Leo Grillo. Leo was on a road trip and he came across a Doberman.
This dog was severely underweight and clearly in a lot of trouble. Leo rescued that Doberman and he gave him a name, Delta. Well, sadly, Delta was just one of many animals that needed help, which inspired Leo to create Delta Rescue. It's the largest no-kill, care-for-life animal sanctuary in the entire world.
They've rescued thousands of dogs, cats, and horses from the wilderness, and they provide their animals with shelter, love, safety, and a home. This dedication and everlasting love to animals is Leo's mission and his legacy. Delta Rescue relies solely on contributions from people like all of us. And if you want caring for these animals to be part of your legacy, you've got an opportunity now.
Speak with your estate planner because there are tax savings estate planning benefits to being part of this program. You can grow your estate while letting your love for animals live well into the future. So check out the estate planning tab on their website to learn more and speak with an advisor. We call dog man's best friend for a good reason.
You can help those who need it the most by being part of this. So please visit DeltaRescue.org today to learn more. Again, that's DeltaRescue.org. And now joining me on next up, our first episode, the Texas Senator Ted Cruz. Senator, very grateful to you for making time.
Mark, great to be with you. Thanks for having me.
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Chapter 6: What are Senator Ted Cruz's views on Trump's tariff paths and their economic impact?
They don't see them as means to an end. They see the tariffs as the end, and they want them to be a permanent feature of our economic system, the United States having very, very high tariffs, our trading partners all having very high retaliatory tariffs. I think that would be a terrible outcome. I think that would be terrible for my home state of Texas. I think it would be terrible for the country.
And I'll tell you candidly, I don't know which path we're going to go down. I am trying very hard and I'm repeatedly urging the president go down path number one, but he's got voices that are urging path number two as well. And so I think that uncertainty is going to persist for some time.
You and I have not led exactly parallel lives since we met in the 2000 Bush campaign, but we're both focused on being dads. We both host video programs, and we both sometimes look in wonder at the Trump administration and try to figure out exactly what's going on. And the last thing is, you and I are both talking regularly to owners of large corporations.
small businesses and CEOs of corporations, probably some of the same people, who are really worried about path two. Paint a picture. If your influence doesn't pervade and those of the administration agree with you, what does path two look like in Q2, Q3, Q4 this year for the American economy and the American family?
Look, I think if we see high tariffs in perpetuity, you see a lot of businesses, their costs go up dramatically. I think you'd see businesses going out of business. I think you'd see prices going up significantly. I think there's a real risk of going into a recession, all of which is a terrible outcome. I don't want to see that happen. But I want to underscore, you know, it's interesting.
There's been a fair amount of press coverage saying, oh, Cruz is critical of the Trump tariffs. Let me be very clear. I think Trump has an opportunity to do something that no other president in our lifetimes has done, which is to have real leverage to finally get our trading partners to lower the barriers they have to U.S. goods and services.
President Trump is exactly right that there are lots of countries across this globe that trade ridiculously unfairly with us. that we opened up our market wide open to them, and they put huge barriers that stop us from selling our goods and services in their country. And listen, it's not complicated what President Trump's negotiating strategy is.
He often will walk up, smack someone in the head but with a two by four, and then negotiate from there. And with the tariffs he's announced, he's done the smack. Now, what I've been urging him to do is cut the deals. Come and cut the deals. get the other countries to dramatically lower their barriers.
And I will say it will be a rich irony if Donald J. Trump ends up being the greatest free trade president of our lifetimes. But I think that's entirely possible if he ends up negotiating some phenomenal deals. I hope that's the path we go down.
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Chapter 7: What spending cuts and policy priorities does Senator Cruz advocate for in reconciliation?
But in terms of creating the line-by-line, I've let others focus on that, whereas I'm focused on the issues I just laid out.
I know you think school choice is a civil rights issue of our time, and I agree with you on that. And I think it's incredible what you've done in Texas. And as you have said, most senators don't get involved in state legislative business, but that's an issue you feel so strongly about that you've done.
It's a fascinating case study in how a federal official can actually impact their own constituents through the state. I love watching your podcast career, video podcast career, and people haven't sampled the show. You should. It's fascinating. And again, I knew you when you were a Bush staffer.
So to watch the trajectory, sure, United States Senator, whatever, successful video podcast host, that's something. Now, I watched a lot of your episodes, and I want to show you one thing, and I want to get your reaction to it. Guys, this is... This is a 101.
How real is the prospect of killer robots annihilating humanity?
20% likely. Maybe 10%.
On what time frame?
After 10 years.
So soon? You see a world where that's possible...
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Chapter 8: How does Senator Cruz balance family life with his political and media career?
And I told her, sweetheart, you don't appreciate this now, but you'll tell your grandkids you were at this game. I think about that now. I go to a lot of games, but now I always have a security detail with me because just the nature of the threat profile, you can't go to a game like that without security. 2017, barely even thought about it. That's an illustration.
And unfortunately, that puts a real price on the kids. By far, the worst part of the job.
One last question, because I know you got to go. You've run for president. And even before then, you were a student, as I am, of what it takes to run for president. Of all the Democrats who are discussed as potential 2028 presidential candidates, who do you see as the most formidable to win a general election?
To win a general election. Okay, that's a different, you know, obviously you've got an iterative process. In a primary, I'll say this. I think if we had, if in 2024 there had been an open primary, I think the top four on the Democrats would have been Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg.
And I think in an open primary, I actually think in 24, Elizabeth Warren would have won that. I think Elizabeth Warren right now is the id of the Democrat Party.
I appreciate that because I know you got to go. Who's the most formidable to win a general election? Who do you look at the way Democrats looked at George Bush in 98, 99 and said, if that person's their nominee, it's going to be tough to beat?
Oh, look, someone who is more moderate or reasonable. So you look at names like a Mark Kelly or a Josh Shapiro or an Andy Beshear. I think they could be formidable in a general. I don't know that they have a prayer of winning a Democrat primary. Gavin Newsom is clearly incandescently ambitious, so he is going to try to morph into whatever he thinks the Democrat primary base wants.
I don't know that it's impossible that AOC gets the nomination in 2028. I do think the id of the Democrat Party continues to be far left, so I don't see them going towards an attractive candidate. general election candidate right now. I think the crazies are still driving the train.
All right. The incandescently ambitious Gavin Newsom will be my guest on Thursday. And your podcast and his are ranked neck and neck. So maybe your appearance will push it over the top. Senator, very, very grateful to you for joining.
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Chapter 9: Who does Senator Cruz consider the most formidable 2028 Democratic presidential contenders?
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to be part of the inaugural episode than Mark Caputo of Axios, Emma Jo Morris, longtime journalist, and now a senior consultant at Beckenstone. Emma Jo, what do the junior consultants at Beckenstone do?
This is all confidential. I just can't get into it.
All right. Very grateful to you both for being part of this. And I want to start 100 days. Big deal, not big deal, meaningless, whatever. Emma Jo, what's the worst thing that's happened for Donald Trump and the country in the first 100 days? I like to start negative.
the worst thing. Well, from my perspective, there's maybe two worst things, which is the pace of the deportations. I don't see how it's humanly possible to get to the reparation that we need from the last four years at the pace that we're at right now. I don't think DHS is either able to get the capacity or taking it seriously enough on the leadership level to actually
be where Trump promised he would be and surely where he wants to be. And then maybe the second thing is obviously the situation with China doesn't seem to be, at least right now, going in the right direction and at the pace that Trump wants. I'm not sure if that is due to the order that the tariffs were implemented in or the the level of communication between the U.S.
government and the Chinese government, but there seems to be an issue that is impossible to get past.
But you're worried that it's not hawkish enough or it's too confrontational? What's your concern about it?
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