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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Be the right club. Be the right club today. Johnny, that's better than most. How about him? That is better than most. Better than most! Expect anything different? Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the No Laying Up Live Show, presented as always by our friends at Titleist. We have made it to U.S. Open week. Solly here, joined, going clockwise by Mr. Neil Schuster. Hello, Neil.
Hola, good to be here. The only remaining member of the Strapped Brethren after the run, Neil, has been on. Big Randy is here. Hello, Mr. Big. Hello, hello, hello. Top 100 Randy, I believe is his proper title. DJ Pi is here. Hello, DJ. Hello, guys. Great, great week on tap. Neil, I'm glad to see Mock Neck Monday is out in full force. I see you, man. I appreciate that. We had a good run.
Good run this year on Mock Neck Monday. And we are five wide as Mr. TC is here as well. Hello, TC.
ola toros guys we have a lot to cover we are going to cover a couple rounds of our top storylines like we usually do on major championship previews uh in that of course we're going to talk some scotty we're going to talk shinnecock we're going to talk rory set up fleetwood fits all kinds of stuff uh up top we're going to cover a couple news items how to watch where to watch uh what we've learned so far in the week not a lot so far it's very early in the week uh other
the wind is absolutely whipping we are going to draft rosters and teams uh for this week winner just gets a round of applause on sunday night fifth place loser has has some stakes involved uh as well uh we're gonna dj's got a little game cooked up for us as well we have a
bunch of twitter questions sent in uh and a little bit of housekeeping stuff on the back end uh before we get there this week's live shows are brought to you by Titleist the number one ball in golf and the number one ball at the U.S. Open for what will be 78 straight years and counting that streak goes back to 1949 at Medina when for the first time more players the U.S.
Open teed up a Titleist golf ball than any other brand nothing tests a player's precision and control like a U.S. Open
conditions like the ones we'll see this week put even more of a premium on things like spin and trajectory to control the ability to hit your number on command execute in the wind just a quick as fast as you can answer what shot and what hole are you looking forward to seeing all of those things on display at once i think we might all say the same one all at the same time if we did it's 11. like i cannot wait cannot wait a shout for seven as well right you know
10 greens. Ridiculous. It's outrageous. I think they might move seven to a temporary green based on what I've seen out of the forecast. But you can visit titles.com to find out which titles golf ball is right for your game. Quick announcement off the top here. We had teased that we were going to be doing a live show in New York City this week. That's not happening, thanks to the New York Knicks.
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Chapter 2: What are the key storylines for the 2026 U.S. Open?
I continue to not be very worried about Scotty. You mentioned his windless drought. He still plays good golf, even when he's not playing good golf for himself, if that makes sense. And I think this is a venue that... This is a proper U.S. Open venue. I think it stands apart even from some of the other U.S. Open venues. So I think it's...
it works if scotty can rise to the moment at shinnecock i think that's a great uh that's a great historical pairing as far as scotty in the wind scotty's battle against the wind at merefield does a constant wind does he need a 16th club in teddy he has a 16th club it just you know it hasn't been cooperating with him it looked like at least going back to to memorial but I don't know, man.
I go back to it's kind of like those those tests where it's like, oh, everybody's going to miss greens this week. But Scott, he's the best chipper. It's kind of one of those where it's like you got to control your spin. And Scotty seemingly is. I don't know if he's the best. I know Rory's gotten a lot better in this regard as well. Xander players like that are have become much more shot makers.
But I still think. When you start stacking up the six, seven, eight, nine skills, the sit and reach, Neil, that you were shouting out in the preview as well, when it becomes the academic decathlon, Scotty's the best at the 10 cumulative things is where I net out. At his best, he is, though.
That's what kind of makes this a little bit more interesting is like, well, is he the best at that right now? I don't think we can definitively say that as much as we could at this time around this time last year. You know, it is. And I'm so torn on this with Shinnecock and what we're about to get, I think, in terms of course, set up and wind and everything of like.
It's going to be an incredible test. It's going to be an absolute, like, final exam-worthy, you know, PhD-level test. At the same time, it feels like something really random might happen with the wind as strong as it is. And so I don't know.
I could see the wind putting Scottie in a complete blender, and I could see him winning by six shots because he's just clearly the best with everything you just said. Which I think is what makes it so captivating, right? I think that's why it is by far the, you know, the, the grand slam stuff is, has, I think almost snuck up on us because it's happened so fast.
Whereas you have the other guys, when you, when you look at who's been going forward, it's like, I'll fill at the USO. It's like, well, he's, I mean, he's probably not going to win, you know, but so you kind of like let yourself, uh, he's probably not going to win this week for sure. But you let yourself kind of, you know, yeah, that story's going on, but it's not the main thing.
Spieth at the PGA, I feel like we always talk ourselves into, oh, this is the number one story. And even myself included, I don't think anybody's coming in being like, this is the time. We are for sure going to knock this one off, you know? And so I just think other than Rory...
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Chapter 3: How does Shinnecock Hills GC challenge players?
He adjusts to conditions, and whether or not he passes the test or not, I feel differently. It wasn't so much his game, though, Solly. It's more like the, I don't know, I feel like he's beating himself with his attitude a little bit this year. A lot of times. That's more what I was referring to, of kind of just getting Randy Hangdog. And we don't want that. Okay. Jeez.
It's been 11 starts since his last win. I will point out he hasn't finished worse than 25th in those 11 starts. So it's just the floor. We've never seen a higher floor. We might need to come up with a new Brownstone nickname, Neal. We've got to think on that.
The one concern I have is we always get sucked in with the favorites for good reason, but you take away Bryson, really, and we're on a string of some first-time major winners at U.S. Opens between Spahn, Wyndham Clark. Dubbed.
uh gary woodland going back to 2019 it's patrick it's patrick so yeah i'm i'm as much as you know we're all saying scotty's the guy it's like man these u.s open especially it's like you'd never know but i certainly hope that he's in the mix good point where do you want to go next out there a lot of good grape on out on long island out in the hamptons Don't play some G right now.
The Wolfer Estate, I believe. God, I might have butchered that name. There's a popular vineyard out there. Anyway, next topic. I was talking more cellars. Oh, sure, sure, sure. They do make a lot of wine on Long Island, though. I'm going to go... Who I think is, I think Xander Shoffley is a bit of the forgotten man. Reach! I say that. Ah, Neil, stick with me here.
I think you might come around on this. What if I told you with a top 10 this week, Xander Shoffley would have as many career U.S. Open top 10s as Tiger Woods? That's how good Xander has been in the U S open. He has made nine starts in this championship in his career. His worst finish is a tie for 14 in 2022 at the country club. He has, uh, seven top tens in nine starts, uh,
It goes back to 2017 at Aaron Hills was his first U.S. Open. So he has played Shinnecock back in 2018. He finished in a tie for six. I think that the fascinating question with Zander, if you look at his results, I mean, I think Jack Nicklaus is the only person I could find. And Ben Hogan, too, were the two guys I could find with longer runs at the U.S. Open of top 14 or better.
Zander, obviously, being nine years. Got a historic Blandy going on. I think Jack had a 12-year run, and then Hogan had something ridiculous. But he missed some starts in there. Anyway... The question with Xander is, is he bound to win a couple of these? Is that what this is showing us? Or does he just have an extremely high floor?
You'll notice he hasn't... His best finish, I believe, is a tie for third there. He hasn't had any runner-ups. He hasn't really had the close, close call even at the U.S. Open. And so I'm not sure if it's a game that's just...
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Chapter 4: Who are the top players to watch at the U.S. Open?
It's incredible. I mean, he's got that going for him, and he's finished top 10 of the last three majors, four majors. I mean, there you go. Deej, I can't let the Aquaman comment slide. I would say that Xanderā I said he might be. No, he might not be. No, I want to build on that. I would say he's more like the salt air in Jacksonville Beach that would just crush the air conditioning unit.
It's going to break you down. It's not as powerful as water, but it's going to have an effect over time for sure. I like that. Neil, where are you going next? Oh, man, you know I'm going with Rory. Come on. Randy, I was fishing in the same pond. Okay, so U.S. Open winner. Still has the scoring record from his win at Congressional. And talk about close calls.
He had a streak going six consecutive top ten finishes from 2019 to 2024. He kind of blew it last year with a no-show. Well, a T19, still top 20 at Oakmont. Uh, but obviously just like two pretty heartbreaking losses at, at LACC and then at Pinehurst, of course. Um, and yeah, I think there could be a narrative brewing.
I mean, he's got the monkey off his back with the career grand slam, but you know, Roy's missed some opportunities. I think the U S open is other than, you know, the open at St. Andrews, like that, that kind of screams like the biggest heartbreaks for him. So feels like some unfinished business there. Um,
So the six consecutive top ten finishes, the record's held by Bob Jones and Stuart Gardner, just old school, and Ben Hogan, those four. Rory's also fourth all-time on the list in total subpar rounds at the U.S. Open with 24. With a good week this week, he'll jump over Phil, who's third, with 26, and then Watson has 27, and Jack has 37.
So that's some pretty esteemed company of just being under par and having a knack for playing U.S. Open course as well. The other thing I'd say is I got to think, me projecting here, Shinnecock feels like it's one of those pedestals. It's a true pelt for a ā a guy chasing history.
And it feels like, you know, Rory in his own words over the years recently has kind of been like, I'm struggling to get up for PGA tour events. You know, majors is, is, uh, you know, he's big game hunting at this point and, and to knock off a venue like Shinnecock. I mean, I gotta think even he thinks like congressional may not have been like the, uh, the premier venue for a U S open.
When we, we might need to get a better venue, uh, on the resume. So I, I have to think he has this week circled. Um, now, uh, his golf game, the, the scatterplot on data golf looks fantastic, except his accuracy has stunk like off the tee. He just, his driving accuracy is terrible since he had a, he kind of had a blip of above average accuracy during the players this year.
And he was kind of on the rise coming out of last year. But it's just kind of cratered since then. So you can make the argument that, Hey, wide fairways. We've talked about it on the preview pod. Um, This could be a good fit for someone that's a little squirrely off the tee, and the rest of his game is really tight.
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Chapter 5: What unique strategies are needed for windy conditions?
I got to think... TC, to your point on just how comfy he got with the Augusta membership and how I feel like I'm a member up here and all that, I got to think the next vein to tap is the Shinnecock squad, right? I mean, that's like a whole new frontier up there, I think. I think he's, I don't know. I'm with you, Neil. I think he's got this one mega circled. TC, what's on your list?
uh listen i think we've talked a lot about wind and all that we can get there but for me when i'm looking at what's going on in the golf course um i'm looking at 9 10 and 11. i think it's one of the coolest stretches obviously they do split t starts that kind of messes it up a little bit but if you're teeing off one you got to get through especially if it's a south wind or a southwest wind 9 10 and 11 are fascinating
to me where you're you're getting your doors blown off on nine up the hill uh it's one of the strongest three hole stretches and like most variety three hole stretches i've i've ever encountered on a golf course 10 um you know it'll be playing downwind 10 and then you've got uh you've got the finicky little 11th hole as well it's just three very different wind directions on three very different holes
So weigh in on that. I think guys can have a very good opportunity to wreck their rigs and just, you know, make it, Make it pretty fly-by-the-seat-of-your-pants midday there.
The wind is predicted to blow out of the south on Thursday, on opening day, at really ridiculous levels, moving to south-southwest in the afternoon, which will be off your right on 9 and 10, and then 11 is going to play downwind. And gusts at 35, 36, 37 miles an hour at 130, downwind on 11, I... Don't fall for it. I'm worried. Well, I'm worried in the opposite way, Randy.
I'm worried that, like, I'm going to have to. Well, it's either going to be set up benign, all locations, pins, and greens soft as they possibly can with some hair on them to last an entire day with that wind level. Or the alternative is they stop playing. I want to see them throwing out Scotty and Rory. Give your strongest soldiers your strongest battle. Get them out there in the afternoon.
Tee them off on 10, midday on Thursday. Mornings, no cakewalk either. I mean, 9.40 in the morning, 17 sustained gusts at 28, gusting over 30 miles an hour by 10 a.m. And, like, if anybody saw any videos from out there today, I mean, Rory had his hat off because the wind was blowing so strong. The projected wind today was more out of the north, but it was 14 miles an hour with gusts up to 21.
Like, we are talking, like, almost double a super windy day. The flags were absolutely whipping and everything that was posted today, like... It's enough to get extremely excited, but it's enough to be a little concerned with how they're going to adjust for that. And they're going to play it safe on Thursday, Friday. First round tomorrow, second round Wednesday, third round Thursday.
That's what I'm talking about. Maybe a 36-hole day Thursday, TC. Let's throw it back to the way we used to do it. Couldn't agree more. The good news is there is no light wind days. There are no days when it's projected in the single digits. And even a 10, 15 mile an hour wind out there blows hard because there's no trees to stop it. So we're going to get wind.
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Chapter 6: How does course setup impact player performance?
It's like, all right, if it's lasted a couple weeks, all right, I got to get in on this. Just raise your hand and ask, man. No, I'm good. I don't need to know everything. I don't need to know everything. You're one of the loots. You got to know we're talking to you. We're talking to you. Yeah. Yeah, just say my name. I'll get my attention. I'll probably respond. So... All right.
I'm going to slow things down here. Four quarters offense here. We're going to finally dive into Shinnecock. We are going to talk about the thing that's got me the most excited, which is the ultimate test that Shinnecock provides. I got a little data, a little info here to support some of this, but there will be no confusion this week of what are these guys actually like in a golf course?
What do they want to see? I, a lot of it's going to depend on setup in terms of how this all plays out, but as it is, as it is designed and laid out, I think Shinnecock is as close as we can get to the best possible test of golf that we have in this country. You heard Jeff Hall say that, uh, on our preview last week as well. I tend to agree.
I have a different appreciation for this golf course, uh, eight years later than I did at the time. Um, I think it is the best blend of ā we have sandy soil, which is going to lead to firm conditions, which gets me excited. They've opened up that landscape over the last decade to the point where the wind absolutely whips through there.
Seeing it on a really windy day like the one me and Neil were at gave me another level of appreciation for it because we get to the part where they've widened the fairways or set another way like they ā when Coren Crenshaw ā restored this course. They widened the fairways to an average length of 48 yards, but at the 2018 US Open, they freaked out right before it.
They pinched in a bunch of the fairways, 10 of the fairways.
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Chapter 7: What are the predictions for scoring at this year's U.S. Open?
They narrowed them down to an average of 41 yards. This time around, Jeff Hall said they are letting the cock be the cock and they are playing it to the true width, which I think in a different world, you know, can can cause some alarm bells to say, like, is this going to be too easy? Is it going to be a bomber's paradise?
But there's a bunch of information out there that supports why it likely will not be a bomber's paradise. Now. It's also been pointed out that the last go-around at this golf course, a lot of the best, longest drivers of the ball had really bad putting weeks.
But there's also something to be said for how Shinnecock plays, and this graphic here on the screen is from DataGolf, how it plays compared to a normal U.S. Open that's from 2017 onward, where we actually have a lot more uh, data on these. It is wider fairways, much wider fairways and wider fairways than we see on the PGA tour. But look at the missed fairway penalty in 2018 for Shinnecock.
It's a half shot on the PGA tour on a week to week basis. It's a 0.36. That's a massive difference at aeronomic, which was, uh, you know, part of the reason we, uh, some of us had issue with that setup was that penalty was even less than an average PGA tour stop. So when you get really wide fairways, uh,
When you have a massive rough penalty, a massive missed fairway penalty, that is going to play into the hands of the more accurate players and give them a fighting chance. Based on their data and whatnot, the bomb-o-meter, the one that shows, like, hey, blinking red lights, is this a bomber's paradise?
said it favored accuracy despite the fairways being super wide and that's counterintuitive but i think the balance they get between the penalty for when you do miss those fairways and the fact that winds are going to blow in the 30 miles an hour is often crosswinds on a lot of these holes creates a really interesting element of being in control of your golf ball and paying a price when you are not uh i think some of the worst setups can be narrow fairways long holes like wing foot where guys are bombing it and the play is just hitting it
Hit up there as far as you can because everybody's going to be in the rough anyways. The Torrey Pines model that frustrates a lot of us. Shinnecock tends or seems to me to get this balance right. A lot of that is reflected also in the hit that players get in their approach numbers from these advantageous spots in the fairway. You see how it plays. Again, the numbers... can mean whatever.
Just look at the trend of it. It plays a tenth of a shot harder almost on strokes gained approach, despite the fact that you're in the fairway way more often at Shinnecock. That's just straight up the effect of the conditions of Shinnecock and the design of the course that lead to iron play dipping. Guys are not able to get it as close to the hole. So
Super wide fairways, guys can stop and spin it from wherever in the fairways can be a problem on a lot of not well-designed golf courses. We do not have that problem at Shinnecock. When you factor in the contouring, when you factor in the short grass around all the greens, and you factor in the conditions they're going to play in, it makes it more fun.
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Chapter 8: Who are the standout amateurs competing this week?
That I have no fucking clue. I mean, that's going to depend on how we just win. Well, no, but that's where I'm like, they've also said out loud that they are going to pace the course better throughout the course of the week. They're going to have the Ascension into Sunday. That's the goal.
In previous years, they've made mistakes of getting the course too dialed too early and having to dial it back as the week goes on. So I think, I mean, again, the wind's going to fucking pump on Thursday. And I would expect high scores based on that. But if they're going to be cautious with it, there's still a chance of a freak.
And if the wind doesn't blow, there's a chance people will, you know, there's 62s and people will freak the fuck out. That can happen. I don't think it will, but it can happen. Randy, you buying this? You guys will freak out. Yeah, I'm not getting sucked up in any of this. I'm not getting sucked up in any of it. It's Monday. We're just going to see what happens.
This feels a little bit like Sully's Jim Cantore just pumping out weather warnings. He's got his baseball helmet on and his jacket. I'm preparing to be disappointed. They're juicing the warnings to juice ratings. Randy will not evacuate. I mean, God forbid we just have a really freaking difficult USM thing. Yeah, that's...
good stuff randy you stay put okay hunker down i've been through so many of these storms you don't have to go anywhere uh deej you want to take us to the next uh your next storyline sure i feel like i should go with uh the big golfer but i find myself uh more captivated by the the continuing story of of johnny rombo uh and just not knowing what we're gonna get
coming off of a runner-up at the PGA. I mean, it just remains fascinating. We've said it before every major preview here or during every major preview. It just remains such a fascinating year for Jon Rahm at the majors, especially now that Liv seemingly is about to be lobotomized or turned into a zombie of some sort. It's just very funny that
I think he's got to be squeezing the bat harder than ever at these majors, and this week is no exception. He should be the same course fit that he is for every other major. It should all make sense on paper, and I think what we're going to see is the wind and the human element, and we're going to see him get mad as hell, or maybe he's going to control his emotions. I don't know.
I don't know what we're going to get from Jon Rahm. I think that's what makes it so fascinating, so I can't wait. Randy. Yeah, just a plug.
It seems like this amateur field that we have, I just wanted to shout out that I think the race for low-am this week could be fun and perhaps historically significant if some of these names that we all have big expectations for end up really panning out in their careers over the next decade, two decades. But obviously...
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