Dan Ivascyn Is Excited About a New Era in Fixed Income
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Hi, I'm David Weston. Join me every week for the Wall Street Week Podcast to hear stories of capitalism from around the world. From geopolitical tensions and central bank decisions to artificial intelligence, energy, and infrastructure, we sit down with the CEOs, economists, policymakers, and thought leaders whose decisions are shaping markets everywhere we find them. Subscribe to the Wall Street Week Podcast on Apple, Spotify. Five or anywhere you listen.
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Hello and welcome to another episode of the Oddlots Podcast. I'm Jill Weisenthal.
And I'm Tracy Alloway.
Tracy, you know we've been doing this podcast for 10 years.
I am aware. As you know. A whole decade.
And we've been t doing episodes talking about big picture things and things that have changed and what's different now in twenty twenty five or twenty fifteen when we started. And some things are the same, some things are different, et cetera. But I think, and we've mentioned this before, I think the one thing that could not be more different. Is the rates environment. We were right in the middle of like the ZERP decade or the ZERP era, or maybe in 2015, maybe at that point the Fed had tried to hike one time already, and then the market sort of slapped it down and said, Oh, we're no no no no more we're not ready for more rate hikes, et cetera. The rate environment could not be more different than when we first started this podcast.
Absolutely. Can I say one thing about the anniversary? Yeah. So we started the podcast in November twenty fifteen. Yeah. We were gonna celebrate for the month of November, but we're now in December. So are we gonna make this a two month celebration?
Well, you know, we're having our ten year anniversary party in December, so I think it's allowed. We'll just keep going. It's it's allowed to bleed the ten years into both months given that we're s formally celebrating in December. I think this is how I'm rationalizing this framing for this per uh conversation. Since yes, we're no longer we're technically no longer an anniversary month.
I guess it's our party and we can celebrate as long as we want to. Celebrate as long as we want to
however we want.
But you're absolutely right about the rates environment. And you know, you could see that if you go back and look at some of the old episodes. The other thing that strikes me looking back at the old podcast episodes is how many of them were about shadow banking. Which of course nowadays we call private credit. And that's another thing that's changed enormously. So the private credit market now basically rivals the public credit market in terms of size. And there's obviously a lot of concern about what that means, the outlook. So lots of differences.
Lots of differences. Yeah, completely dramatic. And setting aside the big picture questions, there are also some small picture questions, is maybe how you put it.
Immediate questions
At the time we were recording this, it looks like the December meeting is basically a lock, that there's going to be a cut, uh but up until recently there was a lot of market uncertainty.
If we recorded this two weeks ago, it would have looked very different. It
would have looked very different. And you know what happens after December? Highly uncertain on many dimensions, the follow-through for the rate cutting cycle. There have been increases in various credit concerns of various sorts. We've had a few small blow-ups with uh, but you know, nothing that big, but like what Jamie Diamond called the cockroaches. We've mentioned it on the show that suddenly people are talking about credit default swaps on certain high tech. Tech companies, which is very unusual, but there's a
That's a Star Wars meme. I haven't heard that word in a long time. That's right.
But with the AI build out and how much that's getting financed by various forms of credit, uh suddenly people are talking about the fact that big tech companies are credits, which we don't really think about very much. And so there are some big picture things, but also some things happening right here and right now that warrant further understanding and further explanation from the people who really understand it much.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–4:32
2
Why is the current rates environment so different from the ZIRP era?
4:32–21:15
3
What are the expectations for the Fed’s rate‑cut cycle in 2025‑2026?
21:15–39:29
4
How does Fed independence (or lack of it) affect bond‑market investing?
39:29–1:00:11
5
Why does Dan Ivascyn believe the term premium is still relevant for bond investors?
1:00:11–1:00:30
Speakers
7 identifiedMore from Odd Lots
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