Chapter 1: What are the highlights of the 2026 F1 season predictions?
Hello everybody and welcome back to the P1 podcast with Matt and Tommy. The 2026 Formula One season is just around the corner. How? And, I mean, yeah, ridiculous. The corner wasn't very long, let's put it that way, was it? Like the actual straight towards the corner. It's been a short break, but...
Look, Tommy, it's been nice to turn our brains off a little bit, you know, reset, you know, spend some time with family and friends. But then there's also a part of me when the weekends come around where I'm like, I should be doing something. I should be cheering on that glorious red team, even though I'm wearing black today because I'm mourning everything because, you know, it's so over.
Spoilers. Like, you don't know. You don't know what's going to come up my mouth, Tommy, once we get to the predictions. But how excited are you to be back? I'm very excited. It feels like the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix finished 20 minutes ago. Now I'm sat here recording with you, but I'm excited for the new season.
I mean, it is quite literally the 7th of January, so this is the earliest we've ever done content ever, I think. Yeah, definitely, because we're basically going to be getting car launches very, very soon, which is insane. They're very rarely this early, because they think all the cars are going to break down and private tests and all that kind of stuff, so it means...
very very early predictions but it means we can get into the f1 excitement even earlier which i'm certainly not going to complain about yes the first car launch is under a week away now and when this goes out it'd be like three days time yeah i guess when it goes out of course time of recording is about a week but yeah it's uh it's crazy to see the amount of car launches we're even going to one as well we won't see any more than that but we are going to a car launch
Very excited for that. But I know you're all here for one thing and one thing only, and that's our predictions for the 2026 F1 season. Something we like to do if you're new to P1, we do our predictions before testing, and then we revisit after we've learned a little bit to see how we would sit with a first to 20, or sorry, 22 now. 22 cars. And then still be wrong.
And then still be wrong after testing. Categorically, catastrophically even. Wrong. But that's the beauty of P1. And if everybody was correct, they'd all be making a lot of money. And this is even more fun because we've got new regulations, which means the pecking order should be shaken up. We don't know. It's only Twitter rumors and all that kind of stuff.
So, yeah, should be interesting to see what we go for because we're basically, you know, we've made these predictions before. You know, we always do before testing, like you say. But normally it's kind of like same reg, so you kind of know who's going to be up there to a point, whereas this is like, whoa. This is so many changes.
I'm sure we'll talk about everything that's coming for 2026 at some point and give our opinions. One thing I want to clarify right here and right now, Tommy, is of course we're doing these predictions. It's very similar format to what we have for our main race podcast stuff and our predictions. Are we allowed to go for the same thing at any point?
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Chapter 2: How will the new regulations impact team performances in 2026?
And I think he's going to do a good job and he's only going to be better having that rookie year under his belt. So I do genuinely think he is a really special talent and could have a very high ceiling. And I think he's going to have a really bright future. And I don't think that 19th last year in the championship reflects his talent at all. So I'm going to go for Portoletti.
Gosh, was he 19th in the end? Yeah, crazy. He was last of the point scorers, which is mad because he scored 19 points, which last year would have put you quite high up the championship. The beauty of the midfield and the way it chopped and changed. Yeah, it's a fair one. I think it was also, as I say, a backup for me to potentially say Gabriel. So best of luck to him.
Now, something we have included as well in this predictions for the season episode, which I think adds a nice little new feature, is that we got all of you to vote. as to who you believe would be the good surprise. And we've got the top three. So in third place, with 9.3% of the vote, was Carlos Sainz. Carlos Sainz. Good to see that. Is it a good surprise? Yeah, this is the thing.
Obviously, people are expecting Williams to be good. They've got the Mercedes power. I think they'll be good. But would it be a surprise if Carlos Sainz is getting the odd podium? We had a couple of podiums last year. Well, yeah, same. He'd need a good five or six, I think. I think he'll do well for sure. Maybe even a cheeky win. That would be a good surprise locked in.
In second place, with 10.6% of the vote, Kimi Antonelli. This one I can see. Again, it's funny the way you measure a surprise because everybody's expecting Mercedes to be very quick. Kimi Antonelli would have to win a couple of races at the very least, I would say. Yeah, exactly.
It's funny how you measure a surprise and this is why we have the conversations after and makes it fun in the podcast that we can have a little bit of banter about it. Because you can say, oh, well, they only scored this many points the year before. Because you can argue that we've spoken about Mercedes and potential advantage they could have.
George Russell is going to be obviously one of those people that's very...
favoured but if you said George Russell's going to be a surprise people would be like wasn't it a surprise but then you could go well he finished fourth in the championship and 100 points off last time so yeah it could change but Kimi Antonelli yeah he's going to have a very good car you'd imagine underneath him and could see him certainly getting wins and things for sure
And first place for the fans, an overwhelming 20% of the vote, is Isaac Hadjar. Now, this one, I think, is free real estate. As long as he doesn't finish 17th in the first four races. So he doesn't get 24 road, basically. Yeah, pretty much. And I can agree with this one. I think it's a very fair shout.
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Chapter 3: Who are the predicted surprise drivers for the upcoming season?
Let's try and get a team working and firing in the next few years. I may well eat my words with this and they get loads of podiums. But for me, the big flop is Cadillac.
interesting yeah i i'm not i can see why you've gone for this one in the live shows i remember people mentioning about cadillac and i said with my chest like i don't think they're going to be as bad as some people think because they're basically doing the right thing of not starting from scratch with an engine and stuff
I'm more concerned now that it doesn't sound like the Ferrari engine is going to be that good. Had they got a Mercedes engine in the back? Maybe. So they're doing the right thing in that sense.
And I think my initial thinking was, well, if Ferrari build a good engine and it's all looking good for Ferrari, they're taking parts from them and then it's not going to be as bad and it's going to be an engine formula. It's certainly not looking as good for Cadillac. It is going to be a big ask, I think. And
based on i mean at the end of the day this could all age really badly we're we're obviously of a similar opinion with engines and things but there is there is you know things can surprise us and and you you never know until we get to that first test you know it could be a complete surprise and we might you know ferrari or cadillac might turn up and do a brawn gp and i'll accidentally we've built a car half a second quicker than everyone and who knows
And then you'll bring in the Tommy's tech talk and be like, well, actually, they've got a one in 21 compression now. Yeah. And yeah, fantastic. Well, but for now, we're both thinking that anything Ferrari powered might well struggle. So the fans top three for a big flop in third position with 9% of the vote. Lance Stroll. How bad does it need to be?
Yeah, I was going to say, does he just not turn up for half the season? Maybe. Rage quits. Adrian Newey doesn't cook and he goes, Dad, I've had enough. You promised. To be fair as well, if he out-qualifies Alonso once, that is almost good surprise territory for Lance Stroll. So 9% for Lance. In second place, with 14.6% of the vote, Lando Norris. We've not even mentioned McLaren.
The champion, the reigning champ. Yeah, the reigning champion, the constructors champions, McLaren. And we've not mentioned them in this entire podcast so far. So a lot of fans thinking that Lando will not win the world championship, clearly with this flop vote and perhaps not much confidence in McLaren. Yeah, that's a bold one to flop Lando.
Are people forgetting that McLaren also will have a Mercedes engine and they beat Mercedes with their own engine last year? And also had a lot of the year. Obviously, they only just got it over the line, but there was talk that they could develop their car a lot more because they were like, well, we're clear. We can focus on 26. So, yeah, I don't see Lando flopping, but you never know.
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Chapter 4: What teams are expected to flop in the 2026 F1 season?
Is this just you? No. Actually, as I read this out, you'll think it's even more me. Charles Leclerc leaves Ferrari, announced that he's leaving Ferrari during the season. During the season? As in, like, it's announced that he's leaving during the season. Not that he... Leaves. Yeah, it's not a mid-season change. It's not a mid-season swap. That's not going to happen, is it?
He goes to Haas to see if the Ferrari engine is better there. Yeah. Wow. I've just picked that one on a fly. I read it straight away and I didn't even look for it. Ah, Charles Leclerc slander about his season. I will sign up to that one. I've gone all in on the Ferrari. Again. Again. Boring Bellingham. Back at it once again. Is it boring? No. Well, it's boring to me. Boring is really dull.
It's really dull for me. Why don't you just... It's one year. Why don't you predict Charles Leclerc World Champion? See how it feels when it comes out of your mouth. That's it. Right, Tommy, let's move on. Let's go to our family top three, shall we? Shall we do that? Let's do it. Okay. Go on then. So I am fielding my father. Okay. Who I have told should be on the line ready.
But that was about three hours. Dropped my phone. Good. Three hours ago. Hello. Hi, Dad. Welcome to the P1 Podcast 2026 Season Predictions. Happy New Year first to you.
thank you you sound like Lewis Hamilton who says first and foremost just want to thank the fans thank the best fans that's okay dad so you know well I've just been talking to your sister and she's given me her top three I don't want them I don't want them I didn't ring my sister that's how bad it is tell me Alonso's Alonso's first ask if Alonso's first and then scrunch him up and pull him out did Georgina mention Fernando Alonso at any point no she didn't no she didn't okay alright that's all we need to know right dad please let's get into your top three starting with third position in the Drivers World Championship
Top three, Max Verstappen. Third place for Max Verstappen. Okay. All right. In second place? Lando Norris. Lando Norris. And in first position? George Russell. Okay. George.
Yes, we've been speaking a lot about Mercedes in this podcast, and you would think that maybe that would be a surprising sort of left-field shot, but everybody's voting for George Russell and Mercedes to win it all, which is crazy. And guess who I went for for world champion? Oh, Charles and Kurt, I reckon. Yeah, it was. It was Charles and Kurt. What a surprise. There you go.
All right, thanks so much, Dad. Before he goes, before he goes. Oh, no, hold on. Tommy wants a question. Sorry, Tommy. I want to hear Georgina's top three. You want Georgina's top three. And we can compare them and see who wins between the two of them. I love how Tommy just said, I've got graces. Georgina is 26 years old. Is she 26, 25? Wait, was it? 20, 25, she's 26. Jeez, she's old.
Yeah, she's 26 years old. And then Tommy's just compared her to Grace, who is three. So can we have the top three for Georgina, please? Do you have them? Georgina. In third place? Oh, third. It was Max Verstappen. Okay, second. Second was Oscar, I believe. Same as you then? No, he went for Lando. Oh, he went for Lando. Oh, sorry. And then first? And she went for Lando to win. Did she?
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