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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
What's up? What's up, everyone? Welcome to a brand new episode of Part of the Problem. I am Dave Smith. He is Robbie the Fire Bernstein. We are back from a wonderful weekend in Denver, Colorado. And next up is another one I'm looking forward to, Rob Houston, Texas. We'll be at the Houston Punchline July 9th, 10th, and 11th. So come see us out there, comicdavesmith.com for tickets.
How are you, Rob? How was the rest of your weekend? How was your other show out there in Denver?
I had a great time out in Denver. I'm having a lot of fun running my FBI thing. It's cooking and upcoming gigs is this weekend, Raleigh, North Carolina, Hampstead, North Carolina, and Myrtle beach. And then after that, I got Galveston, Texas, Lebanon, Tennessee, Chickamauga, Atlanta, a whole bunch of stuff. Find it all at porch store.com.
All right, very good. All right, well, let's get into it, man. So me and you have a, it's always a weird situation we get into, but me and you have really not talked that much on air about all the latest dynamics in the last week. We were hollering out of green rooms. Yeah.
we spent the whole weekend together so me and you have talked it to death but we haven't we almost have an obligation now to go over some of this stuff for the audience here but uh so what let's kind of talk about the the latest news and then we'll get into a bunch of stuff from over the weekend and really over the last week this crazy pivot which is um
look been really really great uh one of the things i think we've been pretty accurate in our uh in our coverage of this war so far one of the things that i got wrong um about which we talked about this weekend was that donald trump i did not think donald trump was ready to eat this much crow
already like i didn't think he was there yet um and it seems we can get into this it seems as if he got you know like some some adults in the room sat him down and explained to him just how dire these consequences were and how much we had been licked in this war and that's that's a theme we're going to get into for the whole show and probably for the whole next year um
But it's really great that he was ready to turn around this early. So we're in this situation where there's actually a lot of positives here that potentially could come of this. At the same time, we have whatever you want to call this right now, Rob. the loosest of frameworks for a ceasefire that have been agreed upon for a two-month negotiation period. This is hanging on by a thread.
I mean, the latest on this, Rob, is that the Iranians essentially did. They walked away at the negotiations. They announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They then came back. And there were some negotiations that took place. And J.D. Vance was trying to at least spin it in a positive way that, no, it's pretty good. We're getting somewhere.
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Chapter 2: What recent developments are affecting negotiations with Iran?
And what you were talking to of Donald Trump threatening him, I believe there's a line in the MOU that neither side is allowed to threaten each other. But Donald Trump has made it clear, hey, this is only an MOU. I know I made a big stink out of signing this thing, but at the end of the day, it's not an actual formalized agreement.
And, you know, it seems like he might actually need to restrain the Israelis to get this thing pushed through and done, which is the promising thing. But the line that you have to walk back from 40 chess, we're winning. trust the plan to where we are now. I think it is important to recognize the failure of this.
A lot of people have been arguing to celebrate it because otherwise Donald Trump might walk away. But in my opinion, it's Donald Trump's hubris, his awareness of his own common sense that got us into these messes. And to just pretend like this is an outstanding American victory, I don't care to lie on his behalf.
Yeah, well, look, I would take it even a step further than that. I mean, I agree with everything you're saying. Well, I don't know... Maybe I should catch you up because the last episode was solo and I had a conversation with MAGA. That was when you were out, my guest was MAGA. And so we had a whole conversation. We worked it out by the end of the show.
So the deal is that we're going to tag in kind of like as mercenaries for them. We're going to help them fight this battle against the Israel lobby who's trying to spoil this deal for the good of the country. And and then in return, they're all going to support Thomas Massey for president. So that's the deal.
But because we're not like getting back together, but we'll reform the coalition under our leadership and they can support us. But anyway, in exchange for that, we'll give them some services, which we really don't owe them. You know what I mean? Like, I mean, they they betrayed us in every way possible publicly, you know, told us Mark Levin was MAGA anyway. OK, so.
The thing about it is that it's actually... In this role as mercenaries, one of the advantages we have is that, yeah, we don't have to lie. We can just tell the truth. It actually strengthens our position to just tell the truth, which is that, no, we fought your stupid war and we lost. Because we listened to you, we're now here where we have to give them everything. By the way, this is...
This is going to become one of the major themes of this show and of discussing this war going forward is that, and we'll see this as we go through, all of the opposition to this deal relies on delusion, on a refusal to accept what just happened in this war, which is that we lost. And anyway, this is a very interesting dynamic because
Now, Donald Trump, who, again, was with them a few days ago, was in fact the most maximalist of all the Trumpians, as he always is. He was refusing to admit this, too. But now he's very much admitting this, that like, yeah, we can't keep going. It's going to destroy the economy.
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Chapter 3: How did Donald Trump's stance on the war evolve?
And it is worth noting, Rob, that immediately, as you pointed out, Trump did violate the memorandum of understanding already by threatening Iran and by threatening the negotiators. And they immediately threatened to close the strait again. Like they know what this is all about. And they're going right back to that threat if Donald Trump doesn't make good on his word.
And it's kind of an interesting situation now, because even if they want to say, hey, the 300 billion dollars hasn't been given to them. It's like, yeah, that's true. But it is in there that you made a commitment. So maybe they want to close the Strait of Hormuz. Who knows how every different you know, if you're if you are the Iranians and.
look let's get real as i've been saying through this entire war through our coverage of this entire thing i've been saying hey everyone should be reading drop site every day if you really want to understand this because you got to hear what the iranians are saying too you got to look at this from their perspective as well and obviously i would say at this point rob
yeah you had a much better understanding of this entire war and why we're at the point we're at now by the way it's very it's very funny that ben shapiro and bacha and all these commentators they have to almost be um like dumbfounded about how we got to the point we are right now like we were winning we were winning everything was great out of nowhere this crazy deal that's so bad for us whereas like the people like us who have been paying attention to this can be like oh no this makes perfect sense that this is where we're at right now it's not out of nowhere
So for people who are, or if you get to the point where you can acknowledge what was just happening here, You would also recognize from you, you knew we were going to get here by paying attention to the Iranian perspective. And if you are still paying attention to the Iranian perspective, it's worth noting, Rob, that this is very controversial in Iran right now.
It's very controversial that they're even doing this deal for obvious reasons. First of all, they're also aware that they won. They don't have to be Ben Shapiro and pretend to be delusional. They know that they won. They know they're in the driver's seat. They know there's a reason why the country that just came to them with the threat of complete annihilation and the demand of total surrender
They know that the country in Israel, who is hell-bent on their destruction, and the country of America, who's hell-bent on doing Israel's bidding, they know that they came to destroy them. They killed their holy leader, as well as his family, as well as a bunch of Iranian girls and civilians and all this. They've also attacked them twice now in the middle of negotiations.
So for them to enter into negotiations again, they almost have to take on an immediate, we're not playing posture.
are right so like that's that's where they have to go to threatening the straight closed again immediately to let it be known that like this isn't like other negotiations which i think there's good reason to believe that this is not all right guys let's take a moment and thank our sponsor for today's show which is ridge i love the ridge wallet i've been been using it for years it's great it's unique it's slim
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of the ceasefire agreement?
Uh, Israel and Lebanon instantly went to firing at each other. So as to whether or not this thing holds, I guess, you know, it's still kind of in limbo. And the administration continuously lies to it. We had a whole week of that's not in the deal. Deal comes out. It's everything everyone was talking about. And now J.D.
Vance still on the news telling you, well, it's not it's not what you think's in there. And the Iranians have agreed to terms that nobody has heard. So, you know, the administration is still lying through their teeth on everything.
Oh, it's unbelievable. And it's unbelievable how they've done the, um, the almost like revolving door of like, first it's Marco Rubio selling the war. And then JD Vance comes in and Marco Rubio leaves. I mean, we haven't heard from Marco Rubio. He is just like not been in front of the camera this whole time. JD Vance has done 85 different interviews. He's done.
After JD Vance was hardly seen from at the beginning of this war, you know, like he's the guy to sell getting out of it, Rubio. But of course, Rubio, when he was in, before he popped around the other side of the revolving door, he was telling us that absolutely what's unacceptable is that they'll ever be charging a fee, even if they want to call it something else.
And he already even had that caveat in there. Even if they want to call it an environmental toll, that's still a fee. And we can't have them doing that. Well, that turned into for 60 days. Rob, for 60 days, they can't do that. And then they can do it for all of time. Yeah, look, there's a in terms of where we are right now, you got to be look, I'll say this.
I think I said when I had Ryan Grimm on the show, this is what was this three or four weeks ago? And I've kind of said versions of this at other points, I think. But I said, as I'm watching this, this whole war has felt like... It feels like watching the Berlin Wall fall. You're like, whoa, this is a big deal. This is a real realignment of global powers.
And there's a lot of questions that haven't been answered yet. There's a lot of questions... You know, like what this what this really means for America's military presence in the Middle East going forward.
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Chapter 5: How does the ongoing conflict in Lebanon impact the situation?
That's a really big open question right now. That's a really big deal. Whether the U.S. empire has a has a physical military presence in the Middle East. That's a very big deal. They're very big questions that are going to shake out over the next year and years.
Yeah.
And so we've talked a lot about, well, how this could be a major jolt to the global economy, how this could be a major shakeup to like the geopolitical military world order. As this is ending, you know, As we've said before, the war in Iran as of right now, and let's assume that this does stick and we are kind of approaching an end to this, which is an assumption, who knows.
But yeah, again, it wasn't the humanitarian catastrophe that all the other theaters of the global war on terrorism were. But my God, did this shift things. This is a huge American loss in a manner of which we've never suffered before. We've never really been in this situation where we're essentially bribing an end to a war out of an actual standing government.
And in many ways, look, Rob, like me and you have speculated a lot about how Israel has the control and the influence that it has over the US government. But If it really is the case that Donald Trump is being told that the like and it's clicked with him, which it seems to have, that the physical realities on the ground are that we cannot do this anymore.
Meaning things like, Rob, we're burning through missiles quicker than they are. We will be out if we keep doing this for another three months. The estimates are another two months of the Strait of Hormuz being closed is absolute global depression and oil at $130 a barrel and absolutely dead. Like if it is that bad, that that just outweighs whatever influence Israel has over us.
Well, first of all, that is possible. It is possible that there's a thing that just outweighs that, whatever that is exactly. And if that is the case, Then.
I don't know, I'm I'm quite open right now, very cautiously, Rob, to the possibility that like we have the opportunity for there to be a really meaningful silver lining that comes out of this disastrous war that we never should have launched, you know, which is that if ever we were going to request in the relationship with Israel now would really kind of be the time. Obviously, the U.S.
shouldn't be engaged in this part of the world. And so there's a huge opportunity for us to pull back right now, which would just be better for the region and for the American people. And perhaps...
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Chapter 6: What role does the Israel lobby play in U.S. foreign policy?
So he... This could not be the case. I don't think this is a setup to attack them while we're negotiating or to escalate the war or anything. I think Donald Trump is desperate to get out of this thing. I do think that's real. And there are, look, I mean, it's a little bit hard to judge because, of course, as I said, Donald Trump always takes the maximalist position.
And there's almost kind of like a reason. Well, look, I mean, once Donald Trump, when Donald Trump's in the war, right, he's taking the most maximalist Trumpian position possible. We've totally destroyed them. I want total surrender. We'll give him total annihilation unless we get total surrender. Like it's just that's the speed he always plays on.
But then as soon as he crosses over, this is kind of in a way, this is kind of the interesting dynamic right now. So Donald Trump crosses over now. He realizes he's got to get out of this thing. And then as you start... Okay, but so they want to lie about the deal. They want to say, oh, this is all leaks and bullshit. It all turns out to be real.
They're just trying to buy themselves a few days before the donor base and the power base in D.C. is furious about this, which you see. All types of moves to block this in Congress and all the usual characters are furious about this. And so... now he's come back over where he's got to fight that. He's got to fight on this side.
And in a weird way, of course, it's Donald Trump, so he wants to be as maximalist as he can now. What are you guys, insane? You want to fight this war forever. But also, when you're back over on this side... One of the big weapon that you have is the PR game is that, oh, yeah, this war is crazy unpopular. Everyone hates the Israelis.
Everyone hates that they just blow up buildings and kill a bunch of innocent people. So there's all these obvious cards to play. But, man, those are some extreme cards to play. Like, it's really hard. Look, when Donald Trump, once Donald Trump crosses back over and he's fighting for this deal, he sends in J.D. Vance. J.D. Vance, you get out there. You go on Megyn Kelly. You go on Meet the Press.
You go on all these shows, and you defend getting out of this war right now, which J.D. Vance is happy to, like, pick up the cards and do, because goddamn, I mean, of all the jobs this administration's been handing out for the last hundred days, that one's probably the easiest one for J.D. Vance to actually do, sell the idea that we shouldn't do this anymore.
But in order to do that, he has to use these talking points. He's got to bring this stuff up. Otherwise, you know what I mean? I mean, he's getting viciously attacked right now. The only way he can fight in that fight is to go, hey, you guys are a bunch of baby killers. Right? He's got to. And that's also, it's this pair of pocket aces just sitting on the ground. Why wouldn't you play that card?
That's also the card that everyone in the audience wants to hear. So he's a guy playing the most popular card, but Anyway, Rob, I guess you could see the point I'm getting to here is that it's also a really devastating card to play. It's a really difficult card to play that, and then... be appearing on the Ben Shapiro show next week. You know what I mean?
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Chapter 7: What critiques are being made about Ben Shapiro's views?
I don't really think he has our foreign policy, because me and you would have fucking... you know, resigned from this administration a long time ago. Or if we had stayed on it, we would have been saying a lot of things that would have pissed off the boss. But... Regardless of that, what I see from action is that J.D. Vance is not someone who wants a fight with the Israel lobby.
He's not someone who really wants to be a vocal critic of them. But this is the position he finds himself in now. And anyway, so I say all of this to say I don't my first point was I don't think Donald Trump is trying to set up war. I think he's desperate to get out of this because he recognizes the how costly this has already been and how costly it could be.
the lane that that they are the lane that that therefore forces them down is a lane where it's going to be very difficult to like get back on board with the war party um i mean they'll take them back if the bombs start dropping but it's going to be very tough donald trump as tough as it was for him to walk out of the corner he painted himself into and do this it's going to be tough now to walk out of this corner to go back to the war
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Um, well, it is, uh, it is fun to basically watch them threaten Israel with, do you want more of this bad press? Do you really want Donald Trump talking about that? You don't need to be killing, uh, civilians and leveling entirely entire buildings. Um, and that is, that is like a little fun threat of like, Hey, here's a jab. Do you want me talking about this every day?
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Chapter 8: How does the discussion address the concept of endless war?
The guy who'll go into a college campus and I'm going to say the thing that makes everybody's feelings hurt, but you know what? You can't argue with the merits of it. He now has morphed into this character who does this like, um, Like, he might as well be like a soccer mom with an apron on, like fanning herself, going, oh, my. Oh, my. Now, first of all, J.D. Vance sat down with Megyn Kelly?
Like, it's not even... He's not doing this routine about Nick Fuentes. She sat down with Megyn Kelly? You mean... staple of American conservatism, Megyn Kelly. By the way, Rob, this is just how crazy all of this is. This is on the level, maybe there's a little bit more time, but this is me in 10 years going, let's say I wanted to trash someone, somebody I don't like, whoever it was.
And I go, they recently sat down with Joe Rogan. Who would ever? Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. That's right. I would. Oh, yeah. By the way, Rob, Megyn Kelly, like, launched Ben Shapiro's career. It was a huge, huge part of Ben Shapiro's early career was that he was a regular guest on the Megyn Kelly Files or whatever her show on Fox News was.
It was like the biggest or second biggest Fox News show at the time. And Ben Shapiro was a regular guest on it. And he used to get millions and millions of views, millions of hits on his things. So he's like, but like... even just starting this, that Megyn Kelly is somehow outside of the bounds of who you can have a conversation with.
And then the evidence that he summons is that Megyn Kelly, who has said that Israel tricked us into the war, as if that's some... crazy fringe, but that is the mainstream accepted position on this. I mean, what do we eat? Rob, if you just read just the New York times piece on, on the start of the war, You're just arguing semantics at this point, if you have a problem.
Like, okay, yeah, they persuaded Donald Trump that it would go this way if they did it. There was no reason to suspect it would go that way, and it didn't. And then his second piece of it, like, this is already before he's even gotten into anything. He's appalled that the vice president is appearing with Megyn Kelly, of all people.
And his second piece that he summons is that she laughed at a joke that someone made. That's what he's down to. The anti-woke, facts-don't-care-about-your-feelings guy is mad that she chuckled when somebody made a joke.
All right.
Let's continue. Yeah. President says that actually the only reason that people would oppose the deal is because they want endless conflict. Well, let's hear what he has to say.
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