Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What key events are introduced at the beginning of the podcast?
Did you ever think you would make it? I feel I'm supposed to take sweet victory. I know this life meant for me. Adam, what's your point? The future looks bright. A handshake is better than anything I ever saw. It's right here. You are a one of one? My son's right there. I don't think I've ever said this before. All right, great to have everybody here with us.
We have Anthony Scaramucci in the house. We have Tom Ellsworth and Brandon Aceto. Anthony and I met 2017, 18, I don't know what year it was. 2017, the first time we were at this hotel. First Bernard Carrick comes, I do the interview, then Anthony comes, and then it was General McChrystal right afterwards. Great conversation, great to have you back. Lots going on.
Tom, we were talking to a Caucasian sports analyst this morning, and I don't want to disclose his name, but he said something that some may call inappropriate. I just felt compelled to want to share it because I think the White House. is always, Rob, don't you think the White House is always welcoming good recommendations, people for them to consider?
If you guys are following the baseball classic, this game, Bobby Wood Jr., when they were playing, U.S. was playing Mexico, which was an incredible game. I don't know if we can show the catch. He made this catch that seemed like he was a magician. Rob, I don't know if we can show it because I'm sure we're going to get hit with the stuff that they do.
This analyst, I don't want to say his name, but you guys can guess who he is. He says the White House should consider hiring Bobby Wood Jr. to replace Kristi Noem because no Mexican can get past him. So I thought it was inappropriate, a little bit funny, but I'm not going to disclose a person's name, Tom. I just want people to know that I would never do such a thing.
So I thought I was funny, but good for baseball. By the way, yesterday, Mikel, who runs the boardroom, comes to me quietly. He says, hey, Patrick, I want to show you. Italy beat U.S. yesterday, 8-6. I'm like, are you American or Italian, Mikel? But anyways, there's a lot going on tonight. There's a big game, Venezuela against DR. That's going to be played in Miami.
Should be a very, very big game. Anthony's son, by the way, for some of you guys that aren't to collectibles, I know I am. His son just bought a very small card. Cheap card. He bought a very small card that nobody was watching, nobody was tracking, and some people called his son crazy. But this guy's on the way to want to buy T-Rex. He wants to buy anything and everything.
Your son paid $16.5 million. He did. for the Pokemon card, which I'm sure we'll talk about here today as well. And there's a plan behind what he's doing. Maybe it's some of the investment DNA that he has from his pops. We'll see what's going on over there. Of course, we got to talk about Iran with what happened yesterday. They're calling it the most volatile day in the history of oil.
Most volatile day. Prices going up and down. The president making announcements saying, hey, this thing's going to be done soon. Then this morning, reports came out with U.S. forces sink 16 Iranian mine layers as reports say Tehran is mining the Strait of Hormuz. And by the way, some guys are like, look, I don't want to go through.
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Chapter 2: What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in the discussion?
No? Okay, we're skipping to the next candidate. All right, let's get right into it. Okay, so first story to start off with.
Chapter 3: How do oil prices fluctuate during the conversation?
We have to go to oil. Oil prices... decline after hitting nearly a hundred and twenty dollars as trump says u.s considering taking over straight up hormones rob i think you got a video on this one if you want to pull it up i'll read it and then we'll get right into the story so oil prices fell monday in extended trading
After President Trump said he was considering seizing control straight of Hormuz, the most important choke point in the world for crude market, the crude oil was down 6.19% to 85.27%. And Trump told CBS News in a phone conversation that ships are moving through straight. The president said he's thinking about taking it over. He also indicated he thought the war would be soon.
The moment he said that, people reacted. Rob, is this the clip? This is Fox News. Yes, sir. Do you have the numbers? Can we see what oil prices are right now as of literally right now where prices of oil are? Tom, have you looked at it? Yeah, it's a U.S. U.S. WTI West Texas Intermediate, which usually runs about two to three dollars less than Brent crude. Those are the two global markers.
And so we're hovering around 85 right now, which is significantly down. So we're up a couple bucks today, but it certainly has settled down from the last two days. Can you press on five days, Rob? Five days high was what, 110, 112? 110-ish? Okay. Anthony, what do you think is going on here with oil prices? Went up, went down. What are your thoughts?
Well, I mean, obviously, you know, you've got 21 miles straight, 20% of the world's oil coming through there. You have to shut down production because there's no place to put the supply of oil in places like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. So they're shutting down production. And unfortunately, it's not like an on and off switch. You can't just flip it back on, Patrick.
So it takes about three to six weeks to get it back up and running. And so, you know, I used to work at Goldman Sachs, Jay Aaron, commodity division. They would get in there and get, you know, long oil and play the volatility trade. And then, of course, the president, you know, he likes pulling ripcord every once in a while. I mean, they call it taco.
I think he has a really interesting strategy here in the Middle East, which we'll talk about later. But I think the bottom line is oil prices, my prediction, will trend lower back to where they were at the beginning of the year once this resolves itself. Tom? Yeah, I'm on the same page of trending back lower.
I mean, if you go to that chart and you just look back for, say, three months, we were 67 to 74 was kind of the range. Yeah, there you go. 67, keep going, going, going. There we were. Right before, there's 63, 62. So between USWTI and Brent crude, Brent runs a couple bucks more. That's where we were. And we were in a happy little place. That's above what's called extraction cost.
67, 70 bucks is good profit for most everybody in the value chain. Even profitable for Alberta oil sands or North Dakota shale. So the oil market was OK. And what this is, is uncertainty creates this. If you take a look at the what uncertainty does in markets, that's what people need to understand. These are not permanent things. These are reactionary.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of U.S. military actions in Iran?
You know, it's going to you got to put you got to put your you got to put your guard up. There is more. ideological for one is more business for Trump it's more business for Israel it's more emotional motion survival I want to kill everybody and Anthony over the weekend didn't Trump basically say He says, the country is yours for the taking. Come and take it.
He was encouraging them over the weekend. The citizens. The citizens. Okay, so there's another very big problem there. So the citizens have been declawed. Okay, over the last 20 years, all the guns have been taken away, all of the right to really peaceful dissent. They've got a full-on security state.
So imagine the NSA to the ninth power, and they've got a tippy tip or a payment structure going on. So if I see you in your apartment doing something that I think I don't like, I can call the regime and they'll send Supa to come in and check on you, right? So they have this massive surveillance state and they've suppressed the people. So
President's right, we'd like you to overthrow the regime, but you don't have any guns and you don't have any ammo to overthrow the regime, right? And you don't have an ability on your own to overthrow the regime. So they've been declawed. And that's a big issue.
And so what's at issue now, and I'm not in love with, I mean, you talk about regime change, you went from Khamenei to younger Khamenei and less than a Scaramucci. I mean, eight days later, you had no real regime change. And this guy's a hardened guy. And so I'm worried about that. Now, having said all that, what's plan two?
Plan two is blow the living daylights out of them, degrade their missile strike capability, their drone capability. And manufacture. And manufacture. But remember something, because I've been to Afghanistan, and I understand those mountain ranges over there. They've got so much stuff hidden in those mountains.
And so you're going to have to drop some severe bunker buster bombs all over the place to try to dislodge that. And it's a gigantic country, guys. You know, Patrick grew up, or was at least born there, 93 million people, gigantic country. You know, it would basically fit in the middle of the United States without the coast. And they've got a lot of terrain there where they could be hiding stuff.
Last point, which I think is the most important one, you've got 460 or so kilos of uranium that's missing since we dropped those bombs. And so the president knows that. Our people know that. That's why they're thinking about putting ground troops or special forces in there to see if they can get that bomb. the nuclear fissile material out of the country.
That's 1,000 kilos, so that's about 1,000 pounds of weapons grade. We think. We don't know, but that's what we think. But if that number is correct, it's 1,000 pounds or whatever. Yeah, okay, so be in the Situation Room. Let's workshop the Situation Room. You're the president of the United States. Your ally is Israel. They want to destroy Israel. They're wreaking havoc in the region.
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Chapter 5: What military actions are being discussed regarding Iran?
American forces on Tuesday sunk several Iranian ships, including 60 mine layers. Near Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. announcement followed a post by President Trump that said, if Iran had put any mines in the Strait, we want them removed immediately. If for any reason mines were placed and they are not removed forthwith, the military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before.
If, on the other hand, they remove what they have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction, Trump said in a Truth Social interview. So as they're going to Trump later claim that 10 inactive mislain ships were sunk located between Oman and Iran. The straits are roughly 30 million barrels of crude oil passing through 25 times. Your thoughts on this.
So for people to kind of understand the thing that created a huge problem in Afghanistan, Iraq and other places was IEDs.
low-tech it's not a giant missile you can see it's not a big radar installation those improvised explosive devices created out of gas canisters hidden it little um you know pipes by the side of the road sewer pipes activated with cell phones low-tech but very effective at stopping very effective at creating havoc very effective at interrupting a highly organized opponent so
The US and its friends are highly organized opponents in the Gulf, and these mines are basically the IEDs of the water. The small fast boats, they only need about a 40 foot boat, 25 foot boat. These things sit on the back almost like lobster traps. They have weights that hold them six to eight feet below the surface. They're hard to see, so you need sophisticated techniques to see them.
Once they put those out there, it's like a grenade that goes off if it gets bumped hard. Well, guess what? Bumping hard is what a large ship would do. So this is low-tech and really a pain in the neck to – this is why one of the reasons Lloyd's of London pulled back and said, hey, we're not going to insure you if you come through this because it's not just about the Iranian big navy.
It's also about all of this, about drones that could just dive down onto the tanker or these. And so for the U.S. is now entering a phase that says we got to get to the mine – the mine-laying boats, which are not very big. We got 16 of them yesterday. This is talking to Lloyd's of London. This is talking to oil transportation companies. This is not really talking to the American people.
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Chapter 6: How does the conversation relate IEDs to naval mines?
They're trying to build confidence in Strait of Hormuz and say, we're taking care of it, we're going out after it, and then they have to have other detection systems to see if they can detonate these things or find them and remove them safely from the water. That's what's going on. IEDs of the water. Anthony. Well, I generally agree with all that. I think I would just add a layer to that.
Chapter 7: What are the implications of Anthropic's lawsuit against the Pentagon?
There's 250,000 Iranians living in Abu Dhabi and Dubai right now. Lots of them are princelings from the regime. And the banking, whether we like it or not, I think everybody here that has a national security background knows that most of the sanctions avoiding, most of the money laundering is primarily going through Dubai.
And so if they get those banks shut down on them, that's going to be a disaster for that regime. And so they don't want that to happen, which is why last weekend they were apologizing for shooting rockets at them. They continue to shoot them, but they're really trying to find a balance. My bad. I was aiming for a U.S. naval – Yeah, so I think, one, I think you're going to be right.
I think they're going to straighten out the Strait of Hormuz, give more confidence to Trump to say that he's got unconditional surrender and victory. And then the secondary reason is that regime is going to stay on, which it likely will. They're going to have to do business with the Emiratis. And so it's all connected. So there won't be a lot of blowback for blowing up these minesweepers.
You know what's fascinating is that for some reason, Chinese shadow fleets are still making their way through the Strait of Hormuz. So I don't know who's letting that happen. One, I don't know why we're putting up with this, trying to negotiate with it. We're talking about half measures. What happened to decapitating them? Why are we even having the conversation of they better not be
putting mines in the ward like we spend a trillion dollars a year on our on our defense our national security is like there shouldn't be a single thing in the world that we aren't able to do that we aren't able to fix in an instant but you know we're hearing about these low tech drones and i know and i hear your point about low tech being able to um inconvenience high tech but i
Why aren't we able to produce drones right now? Why haven't we factored in every possible contingency or situation that we could have been faced with? You're telling me that we were planning this attack, but we didn't come across this, oh, hey, they might try to put mines in the Strait of Hormuz if we do this. Let's be ready for that.
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Chapter 8: How does the discussion shift to the impact of inflation on the economy?
We've been moving our Navy to this area for the last couple of months. Why are we seeming like we're unprepared for the situation? That's what's baffling to me. And unacceptable, too. Like, we waste a ton of money on defense. Like, we know we get price gouged on our defense. We know, like, we pay $300 for a screwdriver.
We know we pay double the price for, like, these planes and these rockets and drones that we buy. So that's what pisses me off. It's, like, one thing if we're going to get price gouged and taxed and all that, but we better have everything that we need for these situations. Yeah, it's true. And it's funny.
It's because a part of it is I was in the military, and we would buy the stuff, and I'm like, wait, how much do we pay for these lug nuts? Is this a joke? Well, this is what we do. We always overpay. A part of it is also when the budget gets bigger and spending less, the next time around you come, then they're like, well, you don't need that much anyways.
I don't know if you saw the report that came in about the lobster and the food. Did you see all the stories that came out? $7 million for lobster this quarter. $7 million for lobster this quarter. But no drones. It looks like what you think, a $9 million spent on crab legs. This is a story that just came out today in the months before Iran report.
So listen, at least our guys have good quality protein with these crab legs, right? Like we're ready for what could possibly happen. But it's a bigger story than that. I don't mind it if we're paying market price. Yeah, I'm with you. But that's the part where business people like us will look at this and say, what the – What the hell are you doing? What are you doing? Now we're unequipped.
We're unequipped for a situation. We're paying for some of this stuff. This is what Doge was supposed to do, by the way, if you think about it. Look what they did to him. Remember something about Washington. It has an immune system second to none. Think about Elon Musk, how talented and successful he is.
And think about the immunological system of Washington that found a way to eject him after, I don't know, 130 days. Yeah. So, yeah, I don't know if we can keep up with this pace for a month or two. I don't know if we have the materials in the cupboard. I think the cupboard's too empty to keep this up for a couple of months.
And that's crazy to me that we spend $30 trillion in defense over the last 30 years and we don't have what it takes to handle the situation. Let me get to the next thing here. So Trump – and Putin discuss Iran in their first phone call. This is according to Bloomberg. Russia, Vladimir Putin, and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump spoke, discussed Iran in their first phone call.
The talks, which lasted about an hour, were constructive and businesslike and will undoubtedly have practical significance for the further work of the two countries in various areas of international politics, Taz News Agency reported. The leaders are also discussed the U.S.-led peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. The peace talks have stalled after Trump ordered U.S. forces to attack Iran.
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