Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney.Music: Source Audio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Chapter 1: What signs indicate a recession on social media?
Little burger, little fry, and I believe a small drink, which honestly is basically a kid's meal. Baby, you know what's bad when Five Guys is actually rolling out combo meal.
Now, Five Guys did tell us little does not mean kid's size, but like, whatever, you get the idea.
Example number two comes from TikTok user Bryce Gruber.
Recession? I can tell you if there's going to be a recession. If you go to the bar and there are like little dishes of wasabi peas out, recession, you're
Presumably because those, I guess, are relatively cheap as bar snacks go is the indicator. Yeah. And example three.
No, you don't understand. Alex Earle's bun at Coachella is a recession indicator.
Oh, correct. TikTok user Elisha Berman. I did not understand and Googled every part of this. So social media influencer Alex Earle, typically very put together hair situation, went to California music festival Coachella wearing very messy hair situation called babysitter buns.
There are only three times where it's appropriate to wear this bun. One is you just threw up in the bathroom at the club. Two is you're a literal babysitter, hence the name, the babysitter bun. And three is when you can't afford to get your roots done. So you tie your hair up in a messy bun to hide the fact that you have a bad haircut and three inch roots.
Look, if lots of people do suddenly want to talk or even joke about recession indicators, we are here for that.
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Chapter 2: What are the TikTok recession indicators?
Now, the technical rule specifications are when the average of the three month rolling unemployment rate goes up by at least point five percent compared to the 12 month low. But also, look, it is completely OK to just remember when unemployment goes up by a certain amount. That's fine.
So Claudia's working group, they publish their book and there is a chapter with her unemployment rule.
Yeah, I mean, in the chapter, it didn't have a name.
It did need a name, maybe.
I showed up at the launch event for the book, and the organizers started calling it the Psalm Rule, and I was, like, panicking in the audience.
Why were you panicking?
I don't know. It doesn't, well, it just, I was just expressing a pattern in the data. Like, I didn't make the unemployment rate have these fluctuations. I don't know.
Exactly.
She may not have wanted it, but all the same, the SOM rule was born.
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