Menzi Chin
👤 Person
7
appearances
Podcast Appearances
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
I love talking about this. I talk about it with my students endlessly to their sadness, I'm sure.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
Yes, I think you're right, actually.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
I'd been working in the White House at a time when we had been thinking about the possibility of the onset of a recession. So, you know, that was a natural interest to say, well, what is a good predictor of recessions?
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
The yield curve, or more specifically, the term spread.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
It doesn't cause a recession, but it signals a recession. And so it's reflecting the fact that people are expecting a slowdown.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
Yeah, I guess you would say on average, the market's better than an individual forecaster.
Planet Money
How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming
Well, it's still below like a 50% threshold I would use.