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Planet Money

The rise and fall of Long Term Capital Management

22 Feb 2025

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the story of Long Term Capital Management?

1.243 - 3.304

This is Planet Money from NPR.

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In the mid-1990s, a group of people thought they'd finally achieved this dream that had existed since the dawn of financial markets. They'd figured out how to take risk. They built a model that could help them generate great investment returns consistently over time. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they were math nerds.

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26.187 - 47.563 Victor Higani

We were mostly cut from the same cloth. This is Victor Higani. He was the youngest of the group. Like we were all, you know, kind of game playing, geeky kind of people. And we just really felt attracted to the same kinds of problem solving and the same kinds of thought processes and intellectual challenges.

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Victor was part of this new crew of traders on Wall Street, where before people had made investment decisions based on, like, what they thought about a company's prospects, or maybe just based on a hunch, these guys used data. Lots of data. And computers.

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It was math over emotions. Risk-taking had always been an art, but now they could turn risk-taking into a science.

72.586 - 78.813 Victor Higani

To a large extent, you can get rid of certain risks, but if you're going to make money, then you have to be taking risks.

Chapter 2: How did math and models change investment strategies?

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Victor had gone from working at an investment bank to getting hired into this elite, illustrious group. A group that included Myron Scholes and Bob Merton, the guys who'd figured out how to mathematically derive prices for stock options, bets on a stock's future price. For this work, Myron Scholes and Bob Merton would go on to win a Nobel Prize in economics.

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Myron and Bob's model provided them with like this X-ray vision. They could spot all these discrepancies in the market where what the price should be didn't quite match what the price actually was. And the idea was those were opportunities to make money.

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And Victor and his friends made so much money.

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119.955 - 130.677 Victor Higani

I think that we averaged like 40% annual returns, over 30%, way, way higher than what we ever anticipated was possible. They were doing amazing.

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And part of their investing strategy was sometimes not investing. When the opportunities aren't good, you just shouldn't do very much.

138.919 - 141.48 Victor Higani

So sometimes they didn't do very much.

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Were there like game nights?

143.101 - 149.827 Victor Higani

It was constantly, well, it was like game afternoon and game night. What games? Well, a lot of poker.

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Poker during the day, poker at night, different types of poker. They would turn their desk chairs away from their computer screens of price charts and yield curves to face each other and ante up. They got to play games of risk and probability with actual living legends Bob Merton and Myron Scholes.

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