Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What sparked the recent conflict between America, Israel, and Iran?
All right. We are recording a bonus pod Save the World episode because, as I'm sure listeners and viewers have seen, the United States and Israel are once again at war with Iran. So we're going to update you on everything we know as of Saturday afternoon. So this started at Saturday at 1.15 a.m. Eastern Time, which is 9 a.m. Tehran time. The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. The U.S.
military is calling this Operation Epic Fury.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of Ayatollah Khamenei's reported death?
It's so totally epic, Ben, that Trump launched the war from his country club in Florida. Targets so far include the supreme leader of Iran, his compound. The Israelis say the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead and that Netanyahu was shown footage of his body. That's in news reports. Iran says that's false. We'll find out, I guess. But as we've noted, the supreme leader is 86.
So he was about to regime change himself, but his death would be a massive seismic event in Iranian history, given the role he plays in their system. It sounds like he was specifically targeted by the Israelis and not by U.S. forces and that they also targeted the Supreme Leader's son, but he may have survived the
Chapter 3: How did Iran respond to the airstrikes on its military leaders?
President Pesachian was reportedly targeted as well. Again, the Iranians say he's alive, but we'll find out. The timing of the strikes were reportedly based on intelligence about when senior regime officials would all be meeting. Israel said they had about three gatherings of Iranian officials simultaneously. Israel said 200 jets bombed 500 targets.
They did it during the daylight because they thought that would be a surprise. Israel said it killed the head of Iran's IRGC, the minister of defense, and a bunch of other top military officials. And it seems like the US is confirming that they agreed that about five to 10 top Iranian leaders are now dead. The US said they hit 900 targets in the first 12 hours.
They were focused on military sites, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps command and control facilities.
Chapter 4: What are the potential economic impacts of closing the Strait of Hormuz?
air defense targets, missiles, drone sites, military airfields. Iranian state TV says that one airstrike hit a girls elementary school and killed 85 people. Obviously, we can't confirm that, but CENTCOM says they're looking into those reports. So Iran so far has responded by firing missiles and drones at Israel. Sounds like they fired off about 300 of them. They fired at U.S. bases.
They fired at civilian targets as well in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Most of these Iranian missiles and drones seem to have been taken out by air defense systems. But there are some pretty scary videos out there on social media of either Iranian ballistic missiles or Iranian drones striking targets, including civilian targets like a high rise building in Bahrain or a hotel in Dubai.
Chapter 5: How did Trump frame his rationale for military action against Iran?
On Saturday, Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced that, quote, no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz. So they're saying they're going to close the Strait of Hormuz. We'll see if Iran can deliver on that promise. But if they are able to, the economic impact would be massive. Every day, about 20 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
It's about one fifth of the world's supply. Then there's other shipping. Trump released a video statement about all of this this morning. In it, Trump kind of played all the hit-spin when it comes to U.S.-Iran tensions. He talked about the U.S.
Chapter 6: What are the differing international responses to the conflict?
Embassy personnel being held hostage in 1979. He talked about the 1983 Marine Barracks bombing. He claimed that Iran was involved in the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000, which is just not true. Someone should tell Al-Qaeda that. I think they take credit. He also once again claimed that Iran will soon be able to reach the U.S. with its ballistic missiles, which again is a lie.
Here's an excerpt of Trump. I think this is the section of the speech that seemed to most specifically lay out the goals of this conflict. Let's watch.
Chapter 7: What are the possible consequences of regime change in Iran?
There's always been the policy of the United States, in particular, my administration, that this terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon. We sought repeatedly to make a deal. We tried repeatedly. They wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. Again, they wanted to do it. They didn't want to do it. They didn't know what was happening. They just wanted to practice evil.
We are going to destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.
Chapter 8: How should Democrats respond to the current military actions?
It will be totally, again, obliterated. We're going to annihilate their Navy. We're going to ensure that the region's terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world. The lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. that often happens in war.
To the members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the armed forces, and all of the police, I say tonight that you must lay down your weapons and have complete immunity, or in the alternative, face certain death. Finally, to the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take.
This will be probably your only chance for generations. For many years, you have asked for America's help, but you never got it. No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight. Now you have a president who is giving you what you want. So let's see how you respond. This is the moment for action. Do not let it pass.
OK, so, Ben, let's pause there. Just get your reaction, you know, sort of what you've seen so far and in sort of events in the world and also Trump speech. What do you make of it?
Yeah, it's always reassuring to have a president launch an illegal and unnecessary war wearing a baseball cap in the middle of the night at Mar-a-Lago. But putting that aside for the moment, I think the headline here is that this is the regime change war. And we've walked up to this precipice with Trump like several times.
And each time he took a more limited action, whether it was assassinating Qasem Soleimani or whether it was the 12-day war when he bombed nuclear sites principally. But this is clearly based on rhetoric and targets, like an effort to change the Iranian regime. Now, the problem with that, though, is that even though that's clear, Nothing is clear about what the end game is, right?
Even if the Supreme Leader is killed, the Iranian regime is a very deep regime. He mentioned the IRGC, the police, and the military. That's millions of people who are under arms in the Iranian regime.
And so whether this devolves into civil conflict and chaos, or whether some IRGC-led regime emerges, we have no greater clarity today than we did before this began about how the US sees this thing ending. And we do see already some of the consequences that could come from this war.
We're only one day in, but we've already seen Iran, unlike last time where they showed some pretty calibrated restraint. It seems like they're firing missiles in all directions. They're trying to exact a cost on the Gulf countries for hosting U.S. bases or just to kind of create a sense that if we burn, you burn too. They're launching missiles at not just bases, at Israel as well.
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