Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Just a hop, skip, and a click away. And... Bought. No better feeling than when everything just... Clicks. Buy your car today on... Carvana. Delivery fees may apply. Welcome to Pod Save the World. I'm Tommy Vitor. I'm Ben Rhodes. How's the Iran war insomnia for you?
I do have this kind of habitual fall asleep and wake up at 3.30 in the morning and mind racing and then start reading stuff and then you're up. Not a good idea to look at your phone these days. Not a good idea to look at your phone ever in the middle of the night. I break that rule frequently. And I do think there's like a weird instinctive...
I'm not trying to over-dramatize this, but having in eight years had to kind of feel like you had to work when something terrible happened in the world. A monitoring situation. Yeah, I mean, you just kind of like, there's this weird instinctive thing in my body that's like... Did you see the thing when the war started about all these dads who were saying they had to monitor the situation?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I did. Watch CNN all day or MSNBC or whatever. Yeah, well, that's basically us. By the way, it's an interesting war in that regard because... I mean, I hate to say this, but I don't find CNN's coverage to be particularly illuminating. Look, I got that guy in CNN. That guy's good. But some of the, let's just say some of the guest choices and the panels are pretty 2004 feeling.
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Chapter 2: What are the latest developments in the Iran conflict?
We don't know what we're degrading to what end, he certainly doesn't seem to know, and he's the Secretary of Defense. And he does it in this, like, annoying cat-in-a-hat rhyme scheme, which is really grating. Yeah. And so, like, what you have is a kind of clueless U.S. government that has no idea why it's doing this, other than maybe Israel was going to do it and we had to come in or whatever.
I just don't know what we're doing. Why not? And we can go through, like... They can blow up some more nuclear material. The Iranians will regenerate it because they know how to do that. They can blow up a bunch of ballistic missiles. The Iranians will regenerate their ballistic missile program. They killed the Supreme Leader. Now we have the younger Supreme Leader.
This is making everything worse. It's not making anything better. And it's creating all these risks, some of which we'll get in here. And... and they don't even know why they're doing it. Yeah, there's a big picture strategy piece missing here. So we're going to go deeper on the Supreme Leader in a second, the ground operation, how Democrats should respond, and then the latest on Lebanon.
But just some quick news updates in the last week, Ben. So in terms of the casualty count for the broader region so far, These are from official government sources. So for the U.S., it's seven U.S. service members have been killed. But today we learned that 140 have been wounded, including eight who are seriously wounded. So that is new information.
Iran says 1,255 people have been killed and 12,000 have been injured. Obviously, that number is probably growing as we speak. Israel says 12 killed, over 1,900 injured. Lebanon says 486 killed, over 1,000 injured. UAE's death toll is six. Kuwait reports six dead as well. And Bahrain reports one. And then on this oil front that Trump seems to primarily care about.
As we're recording, oil is back down to about $86 per barrel. But the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. And there are reports right before we started recording that U.S. intelligence is either starting to see indications that Iran is taking steps to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz or CNN went even further and said that Iran has begun laying mines.
They said it was a couple dozen mines. in recent days uh so after those reports trump posted something on true social saying that quote uh we have no reports end quote of iran mining this straight but that if iran did do it he wants them removed or else there will be a major military response which As far as I can tell, we're already doing. More major than buying. Yeah, so that clears things up.
But if the Strait is mined, it would be a disaster for shipping. And if shipping is shut down in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil producers in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, they can't ship their petroleum products out. They will have to either further cut production or fully stop production in ways that could permanently impact supply. So like...
watch this space, as people say, and also, like, congrats, Vladimir Putin, because you're now getting in a bunch more revenue because the price of oil just went way up. So, first of all, we heard in that clip, Hegs says, say, this war is contained and getting smaller, even though the bombing is getting bigger. There are 700,000 displaced people in Lebanon because of this war.
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Chapter 3: How is Trump's messaging affecting the war in Iran?
Yeah, and Trump might say, well, we've blown up the entire Iranian Navy, and maybe that's the case, but you don't need the naval ship to lay a mine. Was that causing you a problem? I was really worried. Was the Iranian Navy causing you a problem? I live in LA. Was the Iranian Navy going to come invade California? No, they were not.
And also, but like getting rid of the Iranian Navy doesn't mean they can't mine the Strait of Hormuz. You do that with small boats. These little boats can carry like two to three mines. The Iranians are estimated to have a stockpile of between 2,000 and 6,000 naval mines, which they bought from the Russians and the Chinese, by the way.
And a friend of ours who's an expert in this stuff pointed out that even if they have decided to do this, like whether or not they're successful is a pretty clear indication that they are all in on this war. Yeah. And that they are not
seeking peace and we'll talk about the news explain why the reason that they wouldn't do it right is because they sell their energy through the straits of hormuz but if israel is bombing their oil facilities they can't sell it anyway right so in a way you're lowering the price tag for them to sabotage the straight because they're just fucking over the gulf states and not themselves because their shit is getting blown up anyway yes
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