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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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That's the total number of goals Lionel Messi has scored in all his World Cup appearances, now tied for the competition's record. So I'm going to say, who gives a shit?
The tartan army is coming for all you bitches, including you, Lionel Messi. Now, Haggis, that's a real meal. Watch out, Morocco. Here we come after a resounding defeat of that world-class Haitian team. We're top of the table right now.
We're literally leading our flight, our group. That's right. I'm just now learning you're a massive Scotland fan. I have a question for you. Can you name one player? Oh, I don't know, McTominay? There we go. Well done. I don't know. He's the only one who really matters. I'm so glad to hear that.
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Chapter 2: What does the recent memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran entail?
Now, the other guy, the midfielder is incredibly, incredibly, incredibly good. What's his name? McGinnis? Oh, fuck. McGinn, John McGinn. John McGinn, that's right. Yeah, he's supposed to be... Yeah, he's a great player. He's supposed to be absolutely outstanding.
Unfortunately, my favorite Scottish player, Billy Gilmore, who was previously a Chelsea legend, is injured at the moment. But it's great to see you're doing well. You know who else is doing well?
Oh, you saw Team England, right?
That's right.
Yeah, no, that was resounding. And against a good team, too, right?
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Chapter 3: Why is the Iran deal considered unlikely to succeed?
That's right, exactly.
Croatia's a very good team, very strong. Luka Modric, still in good form and good shape. I heard his great-grandson is going to be in the next World Cup. No, no, no, no.
Don't do Luka like that. By the way, it's Lionel Messi, not Lionel Messi. Lionel? He's always been Lionel to me.
What's your favorite player on... On Team England.
Rhys James. You know I'm a lifelong Chelsea fan, so I've got to support all the Chelsea boys. It's very sad to see Cole Palmer is not included. He's been posting some Instagram photos of him in, like, Marbella or Ibiza or something. So he's living his best life, and we wish him well.
God, that guy's going to need a Belondo or whatever they call it to get laid. He's not an attractive man. He is not an attractive man. That bitch better splash the cash in Ibiza if he's looking to have a little world cupping of his own, so to speak. You left out Andrew Robertson, the captain of Team Scotland. I'm so embarrassed I got, what's his name? John McGinn's name wrong.
Yeah, Scotland has a decent squad. A decent squad. They have one of the best left backs of his generation in Andrew Robertson.
Are you reading off of AI right now?
No, I'm not. I've been totally... I got this in my notes, actually, because I'm so excited about them. But I'm not reading off of AI. But I think... I'm curious. I don't know if... I'm hoping this is McTominay's Cup. We'll see. I don't know. I'm putting a cart before the horse. But tomorrow night...
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Chapter 4: How are OpenAI and Anthropic performing financially?
will terminate all sanctions on Iran. So that's basically the deal. If I could summarize what it gets us, it basically gets us nothing, because the nuclear program will basically continue as is, and lots more to negotiate there, and the strait which was open before the war will be reopened.
And then in exchange, we paid in 14 American lives, $100 billion in taxpayer funds to fund this war, also a full percentage point of inflation, which will amount to billions of dollars in household expenses. And then potentially we're going to pay another $300 billion for this reconstruction fund, although there is an agreement on that. I mean, this to me, if it's even a deal, and that's...
questionable, might be the worst deal ever. And I don't think I'm being hyperbolic when I say that. What are your reactions?
So I don't know if you heard, but this morning, Mexico presented the U.S. with a memo of understanding where we're going to give them Phoenix back. I told my kids if they kept misbehaving, I was going to bomb them. And they presented me with a memo of understanding where I've agreed to buy them a new iPhone.
This is, okay, so to be serious for a moment, the perfect reflection here was the signing at Versailles, where nobody in the Trump administration clearly took a history course and realized that Versailles is known for elaborate signings that don't mean a fucking thing. It just shocks me. No one said, uh-oh, that's a bad look to sign this at Versailles. So let's go through this in more detail.
In terms of documentation and seriousness, I've said for a while, a memo of understanding is meaningless. It outlines that you're interested in getting to a deal. I've never even heard memo of understanding in the context of geopolitics. The JCPOA was a 159-page agreement. The MOU is less than two pages. This is not a serious document.
The core issue that everyone around the world and Trump agree on is that nuclear constraints were the core problem. The JCPOA required Iran to reduce its enriched uranium stockpile by 98%, which they complied with, and dismantle two-thirds of its centrifuges and cap enrichment at 3.7%, and accept unannounced IAEA monitoring. The memo contains no nuclear constraints at all, just a pledge.
Oh, okay, the IRGC is pledging never to build a weapon, which, by the way, Iran made the same pledge in 1970 when it signed a nonproliferation treaty. Verification and inspections, which is kind of the meat and potatoes of this, the JCPOA had IAEA inspectors, continuous monitoring. 24 hour a day access provisions.
The MOU, the memo, defers all of this to a 60 day negotiating window with no guarantees.
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Chapter 5: What challenges are OpenAI and Anthropic facing in achieving profitability?
This is paying more for a worse product. The memo comes with a $25 billion price tag and another 300 billion in quote unquote reconstruction framework, exceeding the JCPOA's cost while delivering fewer nuclear concessions. They're at 60% enriched uranium, which is way above what it was when they tore up the JCPOA at 3.7.
So Iran enters these talks in a much stronger position than it was when Trump decided to tear up the agreement. We're giving away military leverage. The memo commits the U.S. to not increasing its regional forces, with Washington withdrawing extra forces within 30 days of the final agreement.
And the reason we spend $1.5 trillion on the military is so we can have one of our 11 aircraft carriers anywhere to tell people when they get out of line to sit the fuck down and we're taking that away. In addition, something that hasn't gotten any coverage and is really important in my view, is the JCPOA. was a multilateral agreement.
Its signatories included the US, Iran, the EU, UK, France, Germany, and get this, China and Russia, meaning that if Iran went back on its word and started enriching uranium, China and Russia had an incentive to economically punish Iran.
And at this point, their incentives are probably to see a stronger Iran if it keeps sticking its finger in the eye of the Western world and US geopolitical power abroad. So there's no enforcement mechanisms, no monitoring mechanisms. We have reduced our credibility globally. We have given up leverage of our military. alienated European allies. We have sent the world into economic disarray.
We have shown the Gulf states and every other nation around the world that when you put a US military base on your territory, it's not protection, it's a bullseye. And basically the political outfall from this or the political amongst an incredible neutering and weakening of the United States for the next several decades
is Trump knows what a shitty deal this is and is already throwing his vice president under the bus, the political equivalent of sending a mob with a noose after J.D. Vance saying, oh, well, the parts I negotiated are strong, but this is J.D. 's thing. And by the way, even Secretary Hexeth and Secretary Rubio know this is a giant steaming pile of shit and are nowhere to be found.
And they've said, J.D., you go on The View. You go talk about this deal. This is, in a word, disastrous.
Your thoughts, Ed? I think in addition to that, I agree with everything you said. I think there are so many reasons to believe that whatever quote-unquote deal we have isn't actually a deal.
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Chapter 6: What factors contributed to the failure of Snap Specs?
You're reasonable people. Have you seen what he said about the IRGC, that some of them are rational people? I mean, this is... He sees everything. It's like he's the buyer and the seller. And he thinks if he wills the car dealership into selling him a Ferrari for the price of a Camry, that somehow they'll decide to do that. We, i.e. the president, have been so played here by the IRGC.
And unfortunately, European allies, China and Russia, are kind of all saying, you know what? I don't mind if this guy gets his eyebrows singed really badly and if he loses a couple fingers and maybe even a couple hands because he's been such an asshole. I mean, it's just weird to think that the IRGC now has potentially more support. And then the wildcard here is, is Israel.
Israel, Netanyahu is on record for decades saying, if given the opportunity, he is going to eliminate what he perceives as Israel's enemies and their proxies. They're the wild card here because I'm not sure Trump has as much authority or power over Netanyahu as he would like to believe.
And notice Netanyahu was not shown the quote unquote memo because I thought he was worried he was going to front run it and say, no, this isn't going to happen. We're not going to cooperate.
Yeah, exactly. So many wild cards in here, including Israel, including also if this deal is branded as a disaster, which I believe it already is, then you can probably see Trump just going back on it because all he really wants at this point is to just save his skin and probably to save himself for the midterms.
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Chapter 7: How does Snap's dual-class share structure affect its decision-making?
Because that's really, I think it's likely that this is what this is all about. His approval ratings are tanking. Inflation's going up. Everyone knows that this is a disaster. So he needs to save face in some way, shape or form. And if everyone believes that this wasn't a success, then he hasn't really accomplished his objective. So maybe he'll just blow it up again.
as he's done multiple times in the past. In terms of the economic takeaways, why should investors care about this? Again, this all goes back to inflation and, as a result, interest rates and the probability of rate hikes. I mean, if your belief is that... we have a deal and therefore inflation is going to come down. I would just encourage you to just reconsider that belief.
I just don't think that you can really say with any level of confidence or certainty or optimism that we have a deal here and that we're going to see oil prices coming down significantly materially and that ultimately that is going to mean that inflation is going to come down and therefore that we won't have to raise rates.
I mean, the Federal Reserve meeting was literally unanimous for the first time ever it was the first time that we didn't see anyone advocating for a cut. And now the probability of a rate hike in 2026 has gone up to more than 50%. So the likelihood is, yes, we will have rate hikes.
And I think if we learned anything from the Federal Reserve, it's that we know now that they are very worried about inflation. And I think maybe this can slightly reduce your concerns about inflation, but I don't think it can eliminate them. And I certainly don't think that this changes the path forward for the Fed in any significant way. So those are the economic takeaways in my view. We'll see.
But I think we should expect rate hikes in 2026. We'll be right back after the break. And if you're enjoying the show so far, send it to a friend and please follow us on YouTube, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Chapter 8: What lessons can be learned from Snap's approach to hardware?
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We're back with ProfgMarkets. As the two biggest AI companies prepare to go public, investors are getting a look at the numbers behind the hype. Last week, leaked financial statements revealed that OpenAI lost $39 billion in 2025, raising questions about how long the company can sustain its current level of spending. Anthropic, meanwhile, appears to be on a different trajectory.
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, the company expects revenue to surge 130% year-over-year to $10.9 billion in the second quarter, and supposedly it is on track to generate its first operating profit. But because both companies remain private, we still have only a partial picture of their finances. So we wanted to fill in some of the blanks in this section. So, Scott,
There's a lot of nuance to these numbers, especially the numbers that I just mentioned in this intro. And I think it's really essential for two of the most important and significant IPOs in history, OpenAI and Anthropic, which are coming down the pipeline this year. I think it's essential for us to have an understanding of how profitable or unprofitable these companies actually are.
And in a lot of the discourse, What I'm getting a sense of is that people have a lot of opinions about OpenAI or Anthropic, but no one really seems to have an actual understanding of their profitability and how much money they are making and how much money they are losing and spending. So I wanted to just start here with like a demystification of what's really going on.
And I'm going to start with OpenAI's financials. So those financials were leaked, and we had a conversation with Ed Zittrain, who leaked them earlier in the week. And it gave us a picture into open-eyes financials in 2025, and it was independently verified by multiple sources, including the Financial Times. So let's just go through them. So $13 billion in revenue in 2025, up 240%.
That is significant. That's a big deal. They lost $38.5 billion. That was the net loss. That's a big number, very scary, very bad. But there is some nuance in there because that was reflective of multiple things like stock-based compensation and then also supposedly this one-off charge that they had to pay during their reorg from non-profit to for-profit.
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