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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce and more. And the best part?
Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com. Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo.
It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.
Welcome to Prof G Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is June 16th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices rallied on news that the US and Iran have an agreement. More on that in a second. The Dow hit a fresh high. Brent crude fell below $80 on hopes that the straight will finally and truly reopen. Meanwhile, treasury yields and the dollar fell.
SpaceX shares soared 20% in their first full day of trading. And Fox tumbled 15% after announcing its acquisition of Roku for $22 billion. Okay, what else is happening? The U.S. and Iran have reached a deal again. After 107 days of war, the two sides agreed to a memorandum of understanding. It includes a 60-day ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a halt to fighting in Lebanon.
A formal signing is set to take place on Friday in Geneva, but the big negotiations, like Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and frozen assets, are all deferred to the next two months. Meanwhile, Israel says it is not bound by the deal and its forces will stay in Lebanon indefinitely. Still, Brent Crude fell more than 5% on the news of the pending peace deal. Here to help us
unpack what this deal actually means. We're speaking with Kareem Sajapur, Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Kareem, thank you so much for joining us on the show today. This is really important news. I think the place I'd like to start is a place of skepticism. And that is we've had deals with Iran before. Trump said we had a ceasefire back in April.
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Chapter 2: What recent agreement has been made between the U.S. and Iran?
For them, the bar was set pretty low. They didn't need to thrive, they just needed to survive, and they achieved that. At the same time, it is a country, it's a deeply unpopular theocracy, ruling over a society which very broadly dislikes it. They have a decimated economy, 70% inflation, triple digit food inflation. So if you're looking at this from the outside, Iran isn't a country you envy.
Few countries would want to be Iran. But by virtue of the fact that, A, they've survived and they've discovered this newfound form of leverage and closing the Straits of Hormuz, I do think that they feel they've emerged from this stronger. What we know from history and from wars is that It oftentimes takes years, if not decades, to really understand the true impact of them.
But certainly in the immediate term, Iran looks stronger than it did going into the war.
You mentioned that you thought that this was more of a temporary pause in the hot war, that we've gone back to sort of a Cold War state. But that implies that we might return to a hot war. And this is probably the most important question in the markets right now, arguably in the world. It is the multi-trillion dollar question, which is, will we go back to fighting? And if so, for how long?
I know that we can't predict the future, but if you had to make an estimate, what would your estimate be on the probability that this is resolved permanently?
In my view, the probability that this is resolved permanently, I'd put it at less than 20%. If we look at the probability of a return to conflict, there's a couple, there's a few triggers at least. One is that in negotiating phase two of this deal, which is to get Iran's highly enriched uranium out of the country
and to get Iran to cease its enrichment of uranium, two big priorities for President Trump, that the regime shows no flexibility. In that case, he may feel, he being President Trump, may feel obliged to return to conflict. And remember, this is a president who on two occasions, in the middle of negotiations with Iran, launched military strikes on them. Last June's
12-day war and then this year's war. So I think the Iranian regime certainly feels that President Trump is capable of returning to war. Another potential trigger could come from the back-and-forth missile and rocket volleys between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah. If Hezbollah continues its attack on Israel or Israel continues its retaliations,
At some point, Iran may get in and launch attacks again on Israel. Israel may respond inside Iranian territory, and that could, again, trigger another attack.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the U.S.-Iran deal on the Strait of Hormuz?
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Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch.
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Chapter 4: Why is there skepticism about the Iran deal's effectiveness?
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We're back with Prof G Markets. The feud between Anthropic and the White House has escalated yet again. Last week, Anthropic released its powerful Mythos 5 model to a small group of cyber defenders. It also rolled out Fable 5, a more secure version of Mythos to the general public.
But on Friday, the Department of Commerce imposed export controls on both of those models, restricting access for foreign nationals. Because the ban also applies to foreign nationals inside the US, Anthropic decided to pull the models offline altogether,
Anthropic disagreed publicly with the administration's decision, warning that restrictions like this could freeze AI development across the industry. Here to discuss the latest in this saga between Anthropic and the White House, we're speaking with Reid Albigotti, tech editor at Summer4. He's the one who broke news on this story. Reid, thank you for joining us on Prof G Markets. There's a lot of
drama going on here between Anthropic and why there were these export controls and what was the actual reasoning and what was going on in the White House and the administration. Could you just give us sort of this simplified version of what actually happened here, the sequence of events leading to Anthropic pulling these models offline?
The simplified version, I think, is that Anthropic did a great job of marketing this model, that Mythos model, back in April when they announced it and they said, this thing is a danger to the world because it is so good at finding software vulnerabilities and bugs that hackers will be able to use this thing. I mean, I was in D.C. in April right after they announced it.
I mean, people were genuinely scared. And I think when the White House started to get reports from companies like Amazon, which is a big investor in Anthropic, an important partner, saying people have been able to jailbreak Fable 5. I think it actually scared them. And then I think Anthropic saying, you know, we don't think these jailbreaks are that serious, not responding with enough urgency.
You know, it just led to, I think, this kind of cascading series of events that led to the export control. And it didn't help that they have just had one conflict after another with the White House for the past year, which I've been covering. I've been writing about this a lot.
It's really interesting that, as you mentioned, Amazon goes to the White House and says there's a problem over at Anthropic. They say that this model has a security issue it can be jailbroken into, is the term that is used, which looks a lot like Amazon is... I don't know, trying to screw over Anthropic in some way, saying, hey, you guys, you need to go figure this out.
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Chapter 5: What are the major unresolved issues in the U.S.-Iran negotiations?
whatever is happening on AWS is going to be important for the government. So I think this is, again, if you remember, Amazon was a little bit like in the middle of the Pentagon anthropic clash as well. They just find themselves in the middle of this thing. And it's what's so strange about this whole situation. It just creates a very convoluted network of friends and foes and frenemies.
And I mean, it's fascinating and confusing.
On the one hand, I kind of understand the White House's argument, which is, Anthropic is saying how dangerous their model is. People tell the White House, hey, there might be an issue in the security here. The White House then says, you need to go fix it. To which Anthropic says, it's not a big deal.
And then the White House goes, well, three months ago, you told us this all was a big deal and that we should be figuring this out. And now you're saying, it's fine, don't worry about it. At the same time, though, I was suddenly made skeptical of the administration, the White House's motives, when I saw a tweet that was posted by Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War,
He said, quote, three months ago, the Department of War kicked Anthropic out of our building forever. Every passing day proves why that was the right move. So I read that and now I'm thinking maybe they're targeting Anthropic because they've decided we don't like them. We're going to go after them. Do you have a view on who might be in the right or the wrong?
I wouldn't read too much into the Hegseth tweet. I mean, look, it doesn't help for sure. It doesn't help that Anthropic has been on the other side of the White House when it comes to state preemption of AI regulation laws, certainly the Pentagon fight.
I think there's a lot of distrust that has built up between these two groups of people, and that needs to be fixed, especially if you're Anthropic and you're trying to go public soon. I mean, They they need the government for lots of different reasons. So but I don't think this is like, oh, we're going to get back an anthropic. I mean, this this this can't be a policy. Right.
Because what it what it says is like any AI company that builds something, there's now like a benchmark. If it's more powerful than mythos, then. we need to shut this down if there are jailbreaks, et cetera. There are always going to be jailbreaks. That is just the nature of these things.
So you're basically shutting down progress on advanced frontier AI models, which cannot be the policy of this White House. So no, I don't think they're sitting there going, let's wait for an opportunity to snipe Anthropic. This is clearly a one-off situation and it has to get worked out too.
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