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Prof G Markets

What $4 Gas Would Do to the Economy

12 Mar 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What does the February inflation report reveal about the economy?

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Chapter 2: How will the Iran war affect inflation and gas prices?

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Chapter 3: What insights does Mark Zandi provide on current inflation trends?

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Chapter 4: What impact could $4 gas prices have on American consumers?

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That's O-D-O-O dot com. Today's number? $2 million. That's how many dollars the Department of Defense spent on Alaskan king crab in the month of September. That's in addition to the $7 million they spent on lobster tails and the $15 million they spent on ribeye. More evidence that Republicans are the fiscally responsible party. Money markets matter. If money is evil, then that building is hell.

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Chapter 5: How do Oracle's earnings reflect the AI industry's growth?

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Show! Show! Welcome to Profiteer Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is March 12th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P and the Nasdaq were flat and the Dow declined. Oil crept higher even after the International Energy Agency approved its largest ever reserve distribution. And finally, treasury yields rose as hopes for rate cuts this year waned following the CPI report.

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We'll get into that right now.

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Chapter 6: What does Jackson Ader think about Oracle's recent performance?

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Okay, what's happening? Inflation was sticky in February as expected. The consumer price index, including food and energy, rose 0.3% from January and 2.4% from a year earlier. That annual rate is higher than the Fed's 2% target and unchanged from January. Inflation in the coming months, though, is likely to get worse.

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The war with Iran has already driven up the cost of oil, airfare, and fertilizer, and prices at the pump. have increased by 20% since the strikes began, which complicates the inflation picture. So here to help us break it down, we're speaking with our friend Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics. Mark, thank you for joining us. I want to get right into it.

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Chapter 7: What financial incentives exist for the Trump family in relation to Iran?

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2.4%, what do you make of this inflation print? You know, once you account for all the moving parts here and the measurement issues, it feels like to me inflation is closer to 3% than 2. And 3% is on the high side of anything that you'd feel comfortable with. I mean, as you pointed out, the Fed's target is lower. It's about 2%. So, you know, it's better than 4%, but 3% is still too high.

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And as you pointed out, we are going to see inflation pick up here because of what's going on in the Middle East and the fallout from that. So I don't know. You know, it's okay, but it's not great. And certainly the trend lines here are disconcerting.

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Chapter 8: How do geopolitical events influence financial markets?

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Yeah, my reaction seeing this report was, again, I can't tell how much it even matters, because one, there's the point that you've been making, which is when you account for the other factors, the number is actually higher, it's closer to 3%. And then two, we've got a war going on, which is absolutely skyrocketing the price of oil. So does this even matter anymore?

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I guess that is the real question. Does it matter? It's in a rearview mirror, for sure. So it's certainly not helpful in trying to understand where we're headed and what it means for, you know, people's purchasing power, standard of living, what it means for markets, what it means for the Federal Reserve. So, you know, markets really didn't respond to this because...

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It just really doesn't matter because it's history and it doesn't reflect on where we're headed here in the future. We're going to get another read on inflation on Friday, the consumer expenditure deflator. That's the measure the Fed actually uses to gauge inflation and set monetary policy. That's where the 2% target is.

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And that's going to be on the hot side, and that's going to be 3% on the nose. And, you know, that I think that's where we are. And I think that's what people are going to be focused on and nervous about thinking about how all this translates to future inflation. So does it matter? Not really. I mean, it's more academic at this point than anything else. Where are we on gas prices?

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I've seen that gas prices have increased 20%. That's what I've read since the strikes began. But oil is moving so quickly up and down. I can't tell how much of a handle we actually have on the price of gas in America. What is it looking like at this point? And what do you think it will look like in the coming weeks? Well, you know, we got AAA.

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AAA canvases, gas prices across the country, they're a little over $3.50 a gallon. That's up over 50 cents a gallon from where it was a week ago. And if oil prices stay right where they are today, you know, they're somewhere between $85, $90 a barrel, depending on WTI or Brent. If it stays there, then we're going to see prices go to $3.75 here in the next week or so.

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Obviously, if oil prices go higher than that, then we're looking at $4 and above. But right now, we're at $3.50, headed to $3.75, I think, pretty likely. The one thing I will say that has struck me is how quickly the events in the Middle East and the rampant oil prices have translated through in the form of higher gasoline prices.

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I mean, you know, there's this old adage, prices rise like a rocket, fall like a feather. But this time it was a rocket on steroids. I mean, I was very surprised at how quickly it all translated through. And maybe that's because of the nature of why prices are up. It goes to the conflict and the war. And the energy companies are taking that in and pushing prices through very, very quickly.

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But yeah, they're up pretty meaningfully. And obviously for the American consumer, this is a real hardship, particularly if you're lower middle income, because you have to make a tough choice in many cases. Do I fill my gasoline tank? Or if I put my hard-earned money in my gasoline tank, what else can I spend my money on? Or do I not pay my credit card bill on time? That kind of thing.

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