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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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That's FetchPet.com slash save. Welcome to Profiteer Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is June 23rd. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ fell as tech giants declined. Google shares fell 5% after two top AI researchers left the company for rivals. Meanwhile, SpaceX stock dropped 16% for its third straight day of losses, dropping to its lowest price since its IPO day.
Meanwhile, the Dow rose on hopes for negotiations with Iran. The Russell 2000 closed above 3,000 for the first time ever, oil fell, and finally treasury yields climbed. Okay, what else is happening? The UK is about to get a new prime minister. Keir Starmer announced he will step down after losing the confidence of his own party.
Andy Burnham, former mayor of Manchester, has emerged as his most likely successor and could assume the post by mid-July. Prime Minister Starmer's resignation comes almost 10 years after Britain's vote to leave the EU, a decade on the promise of faster growth has yet to materialize, and the UK economy continues to struggle with sluggish productivity and a cost-of-living crisis.
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Chapter 2: What led to Keir Starmer's resignation as Prime Minister?
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We're back with Prof G Markets. It's now been six days since the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding to end the war, but not much has changed. Traffic in the Strait is stalled and oil still hasn't left Iran. Representatives from both countries met in Switzerland yesterday to discuss a few key issues.
Those included a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. In the meantime, The U.S. Treasury Department granted Iran a 60-day license to sell oil in U.S.
Chapter 3: What are the underlying issues affecting the UK economy?
dollars for the first time in over a decade. In exchange, JD Vance says Iran has agreed to allow U.N. nuclear inspectors back into the country. Despite these talks, investors still have a lot of questions that are yet to be answered. Namely, when will the strait truly be open? To tell us how the market really views this deal, we're speaking with Brian Kurzbank, Portfolio Manager at GQG Partners.
So, Brian, thanks for joining us on the show. The U.S. and Iran signed this Memorandum of Understanding last week. We all kind of thought maybe the war is over at this point. Maybe the Strait of Hormuz will open. And then over the weekend, Iran says the Strait is actually closed. And the U.S. doesn't really acknowledge that. Then there's some confusion.
Now I guess it's open again, but not really.
Chapter 4: How has Brexit impacted the UK's economic growth?
I mean, from your seat, what is the status on the Strait of Hormuz? Can we say it's open or closed?
We were actually fairly constructive on energy even before any of this started. And one of our thoughts were that we came into this year expecting that there would be a little bit of a supply glut in energy, in crude oil specifically.
It was our view that a lot of the consolidated base of the energy companies globally, especially the swing producers in the US, were actually slowing things down in terms of you saw rig counts coming down. You saw people sort of adjusting for that oversupply that was supposed to happen this year into next year.
And you had some really high quality operators that are going to put up extremely strong earnings, even at a $60 a barrel sort of price tag. What you can definitively say is even if the straight magically opened tomorrow, and we did get everything logistically firing back on all cylinders, so to speak, you're seeing a situation where it's probably an $80 plus environment, the glut is gone.
So even now, when you kind of look back at the companies that you're talking about, like an Exxon, for example, that even if the price of oil stays at $65 a barrel, they're going to be able to do almost 20% total return, 13% in terms of EPS growth or in terms of a CAGR over the next couple of years. That looks really attractive either way.
To get to your question more directly, though, in terms of the Strait being open or not, I think one of the things that we have seen come out of this is that Iran can talk about the closure of the Strait And there's almost this asymmetric impact of having that information. Because just the talk about closing the straight back down sends insurance prices through the roof.
It talks about the shipping slowing down and folks not necessarily wanting to send freighters back into the straight, regardless of how many are getting out at this point in time. So there's a lot of logistical challenges. And I think, ostensibly, you could talk about supply being constrained for a bit longer than what we're sort of expecting with the market is priced in.
Yeah, the insurance point is an interesting one, and this to me is something that... I mean, markets appear to have been relatively optimistic about this entire situation, but it seems as though there is now increased uncertainty whether or not the straight is...
is open or closed, that it might be closed in the future, or that it might be closed tomorrow or the next week, or that there might be a missile that is fired at a vessel nearby. I mean, the level of risk and the level of confusion and uncertainty around the strait
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