Why The Iran War Could Reignite Inflation
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How is the Iran war affecting global markets?
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But I'm sure that this time will be different. Welcome to Profty Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is March 4th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices all dropped in early trading as much as 2.5% before pairing losses. Still, they ended the day firmly in the red. Meanwhile, treasury yields spiked again, and the price of oil rose as much as 9% before pulling back on those gains. Okay, what's happening? As war with Iran escalates, so do investors' anxieties. The major indices sold off yesterday morning as the U.S. warned that its strikes on Iran will continue to ramp up in force. Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly hit $85 a barrel for the first time since 2024. Then President Trump said the U.S.
will escort and provide insurance for oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz. The indices recovered some of their losses on that news and crude retreated from its highs. Still, oil prices are up 13% over the past week. In the bond markets, the 10-year Treasury yield moved higher on fears that higher energy prices could boost inflation in the U.S., Meanwhile, the risk-off trade spread overseas, with European stocks falling 3%, and Asian markets slipping. South Korea's KOSPI plunged over 7%. Investors rushed to safe haven currencies. The dollar rose to its highest level since January, and the Swiss franc hit a 10-year high against the euro. Tons of stuff in here, tons to unpack.
What are the implications of rising oil prices on inflation?
And so we're going to do something different today. Instead of going to one guest, we are going to go to three guests. We've got our panel of experts here today. We're speaking with Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, who you know. Robert Armstrong, US Financial Commentator for the Financial Times. And Matthew Martin, Semaphores Saudi Arabia Bureau Chief.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
How is the Iran war affecting global markets?
0:00–4:04
2
What are the implications of rising oil prices on inflation?
4:04–9:05
3
How are investors reacting to the geopolitical tensions?
9:05–13:48
4
What is the current sentiment among consumers regarding rising prices?
13:48–18:24
5
What are the potential tail risks associated with the conflict in Iran?
18:24–24:00
6
How does the situation in the Gulf impact international markets?
24:00–28:20
7
What strategies can investors consider in times of uncertainty?
28:20–31:38
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