Your Bills Are About to Go Up — The Fed Can’t Stop It
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What decisions did the Federal Reserve make regarding interest rates?
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How is the war in Iran impacting inflation and household bills?
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What does the latest inflation data indicate about the economy?
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What insights do experts provide on the Fed's uncertainty?
The folks in there are watching. Show! Show! Welcome to Property Markets. I'm Ed Elson. It is March 19th. Let's check in on yesterday's market vitals. The major indices fell as the Federal Reserve announced its interest rate decision. More on that in a moment. Treasury yields climbed.
How could oil prices affect the overall economic outlook?
Meanwhile, Brent crude prices jumped after an airstrike on Iran hit one of the world's biggest gas fields. Okay, what else is happening? The Federal Reserve has decided to hold rates steady. That outcome was widely expected. Kalshi put the odds of a hold at 99%. In its statement, the Fed noted that the economic implications of war with Iran were, quote, uncertain. Meanwhile, recent inflation data has been discouraging. The producer price index rose 3.4% year over year. That was its biggest annual gain in a year. And core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 3.9%.
What are the potential implications of stagflation?
Personal consumption expenditures told a similar story last week. Core inflation rose 0.4% in January alone and 3.1% year over year. And remember, these reports only offer a rearview mirror. What is ahead is looking even worse, at least for now. Since the US struck Iran on February 28th, the price of oil is up 40% and gas prices have risen more than 30%. As price increases are also hitting other industries such as agriculture, where the cost of fertilizer has risen 25%. So the bottom line is, our bills are probably going to go up even more. Here to discuss the inflation outlook for 2026, we're joined by another panel of experts today. We have Michael Gapin, Chief US Economist at Morgan Stanley, and also Robert Armstrong, Financial Commentator for the Financial Times and author of the Unhedged newsletter.
How do geopolitical events influence economic predictions?
Michael, Robert, Thank you both very much for joining us. Michael, I'm going to start with you. We got the Fed decision. Rates remain where they are. Everyone expected that. Was there anything else we found out? Anything that is perhaps unusual, interesting, or maybe changes the situation in any way? I wouldn't say that there was anything unusual because the standard playbook for the Federal Reserve in a situation of getting an oil price shock is to be predisposed to want to look through any increase in headline inflation. So I think what I heard a lot of, though, and you noted it,
What is the current health of the U.S. economy according to experts?
The repetition of uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty. Writing down a forecast at this point in time, very difficult. Powell said, take our forecast with a grain of salt.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What decisions did the Federal Reserve make regarding interest rates?
0:00–1:17
2
How is the war in Iran impacting inflation and household bills?
1:17–1:59
3
What does the latest inflation data indicate about the economy?
1:59–2:43
4
What insights do experts provide on the Fed's uncertainty?
2:43–3:00
5
How could oil prices affect the overall economic outlook?
3:00–3:42
6
What are the potential implications of stagflation?
3:42–4:40
7
How do geopolitical events influence economic predictions?
4:40–5:20
8
What is the current health of the U.S. economy according to experts?
5:20–34:52
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