Peering Into the Crystal Ball (feat. Larry Sabato)
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What are the biggest threats to American democracy?
So, Jess, today we're joined by one of the sharpest minds in American politics, Larry Sabato. He's a professor at the University of Virginia and founder of the Center for Politics, where he spent decades studying the pattern shifts and surprises in U.S. elections. You've probably seen his team's crystal ball election forecast. They're some of the most cited in the country. And Larry himself doesn't shy away from calling out threats to democracy, whether it's Trumpism, rising voter apathy, or the nationalization of local races. In recent months, he warned that we're in a dangerous moment, one defined more by emotion than ideology, where outrage is fueling turnout. And independents are swinging fast. Larry, welcome to the show. Thank you so much for having me.
Looking forward to it. So let's jump right in. We're just a few months into Trump's second term. You spent your career studying how political eras take shape. How would you describe the one we're in right now?
Frightening. And it could get a lot worse before it gets better. And a lot of the damage being done to the governmental structure, which we spent decades as a people putting together, will take a generation or more to repair. I don't think anyone doubts that. There's a lot of it will have to be repaired because it's not working out and it won't work out.
Why is democracy more divided now than in the past?
And what really worries me and I think worries everybody is as we move closer to elections, maybe it's 2026, I think it's much more likely to be 2028, things we've taken for granted, we can't take for granted anymore. It's entirely possible that Trump is going to find ways and means either of staying in power himself or or if not guaranteeing, then assisting, whether it's Vance or I don't think it would be Rubio, it might be Rubio or one of his sons to succeed him. Now, I hope that that won't happen. I hope we're better than that. I hope there are enough checks and balances left to make sure it doesn't happen. But we can't assume these things anymore.
So if you were going to zero in on one thing that you find most distressing, I mean, part of the problem here is sort of the flood the zone of all these different things that seem outrageous that I think a lot of us feel flat-footed in terms of what to focus on. What is the one thing that has you most disturbed?
Well, democracy. It's fundamental to everything that we have done as a people and will do as a people, I hope. And look, I can get as upset as anybody about renaming the Gulf of Mexico or the possibility of invading Greenland. But what I'm really worried about is that we'll no longer have a society that can work together on at least some big issues. And we are just deeply, deeply divided. And I've been around, getting ready to turn 73. I remember the 60s when we had a lot of polarization and division. But this is much worse. This goes right to the fundamentals. And people don't agree on the fundamentals anymore, or they're willing to follow a cult leader. And when the cult leader says, these rules don't apply to me, they applaud.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What are the biggest threats to American democracy?
1:08–2:24
2
Why is democracy more divided now than in the past?
2:24–7:14
3
What specific actions threaten democracy today?
7:14–14:02
4
How can civic education improve democracy?
14:02–18:04
5
What strategies should the Democratic Party adopt?
18:04–22:22
6
What role does media attention play in political engagement?
22:22–24:58
Speakers
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