Real Vision: Finance & Investing

What's Actually Priced In?

27 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

According to the latest PCE price index data out this morning, U.S. households reduced their spending in December, bolstering the argument that an eco...

Recession: Past, Present, or Future?

26 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. economic growth rose 2.9% in Q4 2022, down 0.3% from the prior quarter but stronger than forecasts. Markets rallied on the news, as some investor...

The Options Market Has a Message

25 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

It’s been a roller coaster day for U.S. equities, as stocks plummeted after Microsoft issued weak forward guidance on its earnings call. But as of t...

When Will the Green Shoots Narrative End?

24 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities were flat today as investors weigh dual uncertainties: earnings season and a potential recession. Meanwhile, energy and interest rates b...

Is This Stock Breakout a Fake-out?

23 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. stock market rallied to start the week, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way after a slew of job cuts from major tech companies entering...

Is This the End of US Dominance?

22 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Turkey has been the best-performing equity market in the world in dollar terms in 2022. Meanwhile, the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real have been a...

Why Consumer Prices Will Plummet (And How to Play It)

21 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

In the inaugural episode of Steno's Signals, Andreas walks us through why inflation will fall fast in the first quarter of this year, why that might n...

Is it Time to Take Profits?

20 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks rallied back on Friday but are still down on the week as another large round of job cuts hits the technology sector. In today’s extended vers...

Is the Bear Market Back to Bite Us Again?

19 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks extended yesterday’s slide after lower-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims this morning suggested a still-resilient labor market. Meanwh...

BoJ Sends a Message to the Markets

18 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities gave back this week’s gains as investors try to parse producer-side deflation, the probability of recession, and the Bank of Japan’s...

The State of Play for Commodities

17 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities began the week choppy as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both reported steep profit losses in Q4 2022. Banks see a recession coming, bu...

5 Questions, 3 Guests: Joseph Wang, Andy Constan, and James Helliwell

15 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

What’s the trajectory of inflation in 2023? How about the likelihood of a severe recession? There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we look past the...

5 Questions, 2 Guests: Felix Zulauf and Cullen Roche

14 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Are investors prepared to weather the storm that’s brewing for global markets? Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests ans...

From Hurricane to Mild recession, What Changed?

14 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Earnings season for Q4 2022 kicked off today with both Bank of America and JPMorgan warning of a “mild recession” coming later this year. That’s...

Is the Market Mispricing the Fed?

12 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The pace of U.S. inflation slowed again in December as overall consumer prices fell by 0.1% month-over-month, according to the latest CPI report. Stoc...

Inflation and China Take Center Stage

11 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks are inching higher as we await tomorrow’s December CPI release, with tech leading the way as the Nasdaq Composite puts in a fourth straight g...

What a Drought Would Mean for Inflation?

10 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s show, Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Advisors, joins Maggie Lake to discuss the latest developments in markets and the sta...

Just Another Bear Market Rally?

10 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The stock market continued to rally on Monday, pushing higher from Friday’s big gains with the technology sector leading the way. At the time of thi...

5 Questions, 2 Guests: Milton Berg and Mish Schneider

08 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

There’s no shortage of uncertainty as we enter a new year, but don’t blink --- you might just miss the move that makes 2023. Welcome to the latest...

5 Questions, 3 Guests: Mike Coolbaugh, Diego Parrilla, and David Higgins

07 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Welcome to the latest edition of V Questions, where expert guests answer 5 questions in 1 take with zero preparation. On today’s show, Mike Coolbaug...

Is This What a Soft Landing Looks Like?

06 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

With Nonfarm payrolls coming in above estimates, and wage growth softer than expected, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said today that “the Fed...

Melt up to Melt Down

05 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector emplo...

The Fed Stays Strong: Higher Rates for Longer

04 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Federal Reserve officials believe that “substantially more evidence” of slowing inflation is necessary before the central bank cuts interest rates...

New Year, Same Energy Playbook?

03 Jan 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The first trading day of 2023 is in the books and boy was it eventful. As warmer-than-average temperatures hold up across the globe, natural gas price...

Make or Break: Inflation - Everything Has Changed Since 2019

30 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There’s no going back to 2019, according to Jim Bianco, and the sooner we accept reality the better we’ll be able to see new opportunities. The po...

Raoul Pal the Journey Man - A New Paradigm

29 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Dario’s views of the global economy’s structure and how the next decade plays out are very different from those of most observers. He thinks the 1...

The Essential Conversation - What Will the World Look Like in Five Years?

28 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

“Regionalization” is the transition from a world of stable prices and consistent growth to one of rising costs of living where the threat of globa...

The Kyle Bass Interviews - If We Don't Get it Right, the Consequences are Dire

27 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The transition to clean energy is an extremely important and noble cause but achieving future net-zero targets “will be very, very difficult.” Tha...

The Exponential Age - "This Is the Most Important Interview in the History of Real Vision"

26 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Emad Mostaque is democratizing artificial intelligence. The hedge fund manager turned entrepreneur is the founder of Stability AI, the company behind ...

December's Stock Sell-Off Rages On

22 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities took another tumble on Thursday as the worst December for stocks since 2018 continues. Meanwhile, Asia markets rallied on some upbeat ea...

Did Markets Shrug Off the BoJ Decision?

21 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The yen slipped slightly today after surging almost 4% on Tuesday, after the Bank of Japan surprisingly tweaked its yield curve control policy. U.S. e...

Bank of Japan Leaves Capital Markets Shook

20 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of Japan’s surprise move to change its policy and allow the 10-year JGB yield to move 50 basis points on either side of its 0% target, caug...

Is the Santa Rally Off?

19 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. stocks fell to start the week, with the Nasdaq leading to the downside. As of Friday’s close, the S&P 500 had fallen 5.6% so far this month. So...

The Next Big Trade - Don't Take Your Eyes Off Gold

18 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Peter Brandt is the CEO of Factor LLC, a global trading firm he founded in 1980 that trades proprietary capital, forex, futures, fixed income, and equ...

My Life in 4 Trades - My Raoul Pal: My Life in 4 Trades (Part 1)

17 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

You’ve never gone as deep with Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal as you will in this special two-part episode of My Life in 4 Trades. Raoul t...

Do Central Bankers Need Their Eyes Checked?

16 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Markets sold off again today to close the week, down drastically from Tuesday morning’s post-CPI highs. The reversal comes as central bankers in the...

Will Central Banks Ruin Christmas?

15 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Description The European Central Bank and Bank of England followed the Federal Reserve in raising interest rates another 50 basis points this morning....

The Fed is Sticking to Higher for Longer

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 50 basis points today. It was a seventh consecutive rate hike from the Fed, four straight three-quarter p...

All Clear? Let's Hear from the Fed

14 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks surged this morning after cooler-than-expected inflation data showed that consumer prices in November rose at the slowest 12-month pace since D...

What Card Can the Fed Play Next?

13 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

On today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing, Bilal Hafeez, the CEO of MacroHive, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a discussion on the upcoming Fed decision ...

How to Position into the Fed Meeting

09 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-o...

From Crisis to Recovery

08 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. jobless claims this morning rose to their highest level since February. Meanwhile, China’s outbound shipments plunged 8.7% year-over-year and H...

Is It All Over for Energy Bulls?

07 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Price action continues to reflect investors’ collective ambivalence about what comes next, with Wall Street warning of grim prospects for both stock...

What’s the Matter With Big Tech?

07 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. equity sell-off extended to a fourth straight trading session today, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite again led to the downside with a 2.18...

From the Macro to the Micro

05 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of services activity rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, surprising to the upside and stirring...

The Next Big Trade - Michael Gayed: This Bear’s Got Long Legs

04 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red...

My Life in 4 Trades - You Can’t Control Events, but You Can Profit From Them

03 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog...

Too Early To Signal a Pivot?

02 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring a...

What About Growth?

01 Dec 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below ...

Shall We Call This a Pivot?

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time f...

Weston Nakamura on the WTFinance Podcast

30 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Real Vision Global Markets Editor Weston Nakamura visits the WTFinance podcast to share with host Anthony Fatseas his unconventional path to a career ...

Mr. Market Wants More Data

29 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equities were mixed-to-negative heading into Tuesday’s close, as investors remain cautious ahead of Friday’s release of the November jobs rep...

It’s a Whole New China Syndrome

28 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Historic protests over the weekend have pushed President Xi Jinping into perhaps the most uncomfortable position of his tenure, as China’s continuin...

Are We Seeing the Fed’s Lag Effects?

24 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Markets held modest gains late Wednesday, as minutes from the most recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee suggest monetary tightening wil...

How Long Can This Rally Last?

22 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up about 1% heading into Tuesday’s close, rallying on light volume as investors look forward to a long holi...

It’s the Return of the Safety Trade

21 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It’s a Thanksgiving-abbreviated trading week in the U.S., but there’s no lack of compelling evidence to sift this Monday. Stocks were mixed two ho...

The Next Big Trade - Is China Still Open for Business?

20 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar founded macroeconomic consulting firm Sri-Kumar Global Strategies to advise multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on risk...

My Life in 4 Trades - Lifelong Learning Is Todd Edgar’s Key to Success

19 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Todd Edgar was once one of Wall Street’s star proprietary traders. Before he started Atreaus Family in 2019, he worked for some of the biggest house...

Be Careful What You Wish For

18 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity indexes were mixed heading into the final two hours of the trading week, a fitting close as investors continue to struggle with data that ...

How Do We Navigate This Market?

17 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note spiked and equity indexes sagged Thursday, as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said the F...

Has the Buck Topped Here?

16 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after ...

Is the Market Getting Ahead of Itself?

15 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Softer-than-expected U.S. Producer Price Index data for October reinforced the hope that inflationary pressures are finally beginning to ease and fire...

Is It Time To Take a Deep Breath?

14 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity indexes drifted into mildly positive territory two hours shy of Monday’s close, continuing to digest October’s Consumer Price Index da...

The Next Big Trade - Justin Huhn on Why We’re Going Nuclear

13 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Justin Huhn, the founder of Uranium Insider, joins Harry Melandri for a compelling conversation about the resurgence of nuclear as a baseload power op...

My Life in 4 Trades - Anthony Scaramucci on Failure, Authenticity, and the Future of Crypto

12 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Anthony Scaramucci has worked in two of the most pressure-driven environments in America – investment banking at Goldman Sachs and the communication...

So When Comes the Powell Pivot?

10 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

It appears that inflation finally eased last month, as the rate of underlying price increases excluding energy and food slowed from a 40-year high. An...

The US Dollar: Where It All Begins

09 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

“We live in a world where the price of every key asset in the world is in U.S. dollars,” notes Darius Dale at the top of a recent tweet-thread exp...

Let’s Talk Election Day Price Action

08 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity indexes surged early on Election Day but sagged heading into the last two hours of trading, rising perhaps in anticipation of a market-fri...

Around the World in 30 Minutes

07 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. equity indexes held modest gains at midday Monday, as investors prepare for midterm elections with particularly global potential consequences. An...

The Next Big Trade - Luke Gromen on Why It's Best to "Be Long Energy" Right Now

06 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Luke Gromen, the founder and president of Forest for the Trees, is a highly respected voice in the global macroeconomic research community. Luke joins...

My Life in 4 Trades - Why Crypto's Ferocious Free Market Is Good for Investors

05 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Chris Sullivan, a portfolio manager of Hyperion Decimus, transitioned from traditional finance to crypto – and he says it’s the best move of his c...

The Labor Market Is Still Intact

04 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. stocks opened higher but drifted lower through the trading day, digesting an October nonfarm payrolls report that showed a still-strong labor mar...

Easy Money Has Hard Consequences

03 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve announced a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell aggressively pushed back against any t...

What Kind of a Hike Was It?

02 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Open Market Committee added a couple of interesting phrases to its policy statement announcing a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point interes...

What Will China Do?

01 Nov 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Chinese stocks and the yuan rallied on unconfirmed reports authorities have formed a committee to reconsider China’s “COVID zero” restrictions o...

Energy Crisis Dos and Don'ts With Doomberg

31 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

“This should be fun,” tweeted Doomberg amid reports President Joe Biden will propose a “windfall tax” on profits of oil and gas producers, as ...

The Next Big Trade - Dan Rasmussen on When It’s Time for Small-Value Stocks

30 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Which economic indicator is the most reliable for confirming we’re in a crisis? According to Verdad Capital founder and portfolio manager Dan Rasmus...

My Life in 4 Trades - Trading Is Not a Game of “Perfect”

29 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Born into a family of cotton traders, Alexander Stahel is a natural when it comes to commodities. Alexander grew up in Switzerland before he migrated ...

Why It’s Not the End of the World as We Know It

28 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks surged into the weekend, with all three major U.S. equity indexes up more than 2% two hours ahead of Friday’s close. “The market isn't rall...

Do Central Banks Have Control?

27 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The European Central Bank announced a second 75-basis-point interest-rate increase in as many months on Thursday, meeting economists’ expectations w...

When Will the Fed Get the Message?

26 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

More central banks are signaling turns away from tightening as concerns about growth have begun to overwhelm fears of inflation, with the Bank of Cana...

Are the Bulls Back in Charge?

25 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

“Markets are rallying right now based on a massive overshoot in technicals and sentiment,” explained Mark Ritchie II in a note today. “The bears...

It's All About the Numbers

24 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

President Xi Jinping strengthened his hold on power and took definitive steps to reverse a half-century of open relations with the West at last weeken...

My Life in 4 Trades - How To Be a Calculated Risk-Taker

22 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In this episode of My Life in Four Trades, Jeff Dorman, a co-founder and the chief investment officer of Arca, gets personal with Maggie Lake. Jeff ex...

To Go Too Far or Not Far Enough

22 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The market is all set for a 75-basis-point rate-hike in November, though San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly stoked an equity rally on F...

Will the Market Pick a Direction?

20 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to a fresh cycle high of 4.18% on Thursday, as stocks struggled to hold gains amid more hawkish tal...

Yields Spike, Stocks Sag, the Fed Fiddles

19 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to its highest level since 2007 on Wednesday, as investors priced in the probability that the Fed...

It’s as Simple as Supply vs. Demand

18 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

All three major U.S. equity indexes were up more than 1% through midday Tuesday, as energy stocks hit a 52-week high relative to crude oil futures. Th...

It’s a Broad-Based Up Day

17 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

“The U.S. Dollar Index is on the verge of actually looking weaker,” noted Dave Floyd around midday today. “Key levels are 112.50 and 112.21. A c...

The Next Big Trade - The Godfather of MMT Explains It All

16 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Warren Mosler, an American economist and entrepreneur, is perhaps the leading proponent of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). But what is MMT? And how can ...

My Life in 4 Trades - How Bill Browder Took on Putin’s Oligarchs

15 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

There’s nothing ordinary about Bill Browder’s life. After earning an MBA from the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 1989, he moved to Russia...

A Break From the Whipsaw

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The situation in the U.K. is going from bad to worse, with Prime Minister Liz Truss now in danger of losing her own job after firing her finance minis...

Ask Me Anything w/ Raoul Pal

14 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Real Vision Co-Founder & CEO, Raoul Pal, answers the internets questions and covers everything from macro & crypto to wine, scuba diving, food and art...

When There’s No One Left To Sell

13 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Within three hours today, S&P 500 futures swung from a 3.9% decline to a 3.9% rally. “It's pretty incredible,” tweeted Jared Dillian shortly after...

The Fed Will Stick To Its Waste-Laying

12 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Producer Price Index for September came in hotter than expected, as investors brace for the Thursday morning release of Consumer Price Index data....

What Is the Bond Market Telling Us?

11 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of England intervened in the U.K gilt market for the second time in two days Tuesday, with the following warning: "Dysfunction in this market...

Why the Stock Selloff May Have Reached Its Limits

10 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Stocks opened to the downside but trended higher throughout the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average peaking into positive territory in the early aft...

The Next Big Trade - Jeff Booth Sees the Solution for a Broken Financial System

09 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

In Jeff Booth’s eyes, money is just information, and we desire the feeling we get when we have more of it. It’s also why, according to Booth, that...

My Life in 4 Trades - Agility Is the Key to Good Trading

08 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

KPTL Arbitrage Management is one of the few crypto hedge funds that managed to profit from Terra’s crash. Its founding partner, Jay Janer, sheds ins...

Stocks Sink on Solid September Jobs Report

08 Oct 2022

Contributed by Lukas

Nonfarm payroll growth slowed to 263,000 in September, in line with expectations, even as the U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5% from 3.7%. Co...