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Chapter 1: What was the significance of Trump's State of the Union address?
and our enemies are scared, our military and police are stacked, and America is respected again, perhaps like never before. Our country is winning again. In fact, we're winning so much that we really don't know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please, Mr. President, we're winning too much. We can't take it anymore. We're not used to winning in our country.
Until you came along, we're just always losing, but now we're winning too much. And I say, no, no, no, you're going to win again. You're going to win big. You're going to win bigger than ever.
Es ist Mittwochmorgen, 5 Uhr 9 deutscher Zeit und gerade eben ist Donald Trump's State of the Union zu Ende gegangen und es ist ein Ereignis, auf das die ganze Welt geschaut hat, vor allem vor dem Hintergrund eines möglichen Angriffs auf den Iran, aber natürlich auch, was innenpolitisch passieren würde, nachdem wir alle über die Zollentscheidung gesprochen haben und vor allem über die
Paul, good morning. Julius, before we get to the content, what is the State of the Union? Why is that so important?
The State of the Union is the speech on the situation of the nation, where the president basically gives advice. And why does he make this speech? On the one hand, what he naturally gets gigantic attention. 50, 52 million Americans are watching. So you can say it's basically the Superbowl of political speeches.
But it is also anchored in the Constitution, or in the second article, that from time to time the president has to teach, inform the Congress how the situation is. And accordingly, in the past it was always simply sent out by letter from the president to the Congress. And now, of course, we can stage it perfectly in the media and of course also use the range to place our own message.
What kind of impression did the US president have on you? There have been many debates about how healthy he is, how fit he is. Comparisons have already been made with Joe Biden in the media regarding his age. How fit did Donald Trump seem to you?
First of all, one has to say, he already had the longest State of the Union with 100 minutes last year. This time he spoke even longer, 115 minutes were what some counted. Accordingly, someone who can stand there at the age of 80, 110 minutes can speak, 115 minutes. That is also remarkable. Accordingly, I think he had the fitness first.
Was that the cleanest speech, the polished, rhetorical speech I've ever heard? No. Even if I were to compare it with the speech of Marco Rubio in Munich, then it was not a rhetorical firework that was cut off here. But I think he had all the capacities he needed to make clear what he was talking about and what America stands for.
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Chapter 2: How did Trump portray his administration's achievements?
Two demands that the current regime will of course never accept. And that is of course a negotiation situation that is quasi pre-programmed, that it is actually to the atomic strike, to the atomic strike I say, to the first strike. I have to say, I have been awake for 24 hours, so forgive me here in the language, there was of course no atomic strike. But I just want to be clean.
Of course, this is about an air strike. Possibly tubes and boots on the ground, I don't think anyone sees for realistic here. But I think that Trump already knows how tricky the whole thing is and that of course there is now also an expectation within the American base. They say, you can't drive over there and do nothing now.
But how do you see the connection of the whole thing? As I said, on the one hand, the statement in the direction of never an atomic bomb. And on the other hand, again the hint of the human suffering, that he did it for the first time. And there was the change, so in January, we remember, there was the demonstration in the streets, these insanely courageous women and men.
Tens of thousands dead, torture, very bad pictures that we saw from there. And there he said in the direction of this Iranian opposition, the Iranian people, help is on the way and further demanded to leave. Then you had expected a blow, then nothing came first and then he had in his public argumentation above all again on the atomic bomb.
Auch das war jetzt wieder Teil der Argumentation, aber es war eben auch wieder die Rede von den Demonstranten.
Yes, so I think this back and forth is of course a bit reminiscent of Obama back then with Syria and the red line with the chemical weapons. If I look at Donald Trump now and of course the withdrawal again there, we still don't know what was really written down and planned in the speech and where he possibly just let himself be seduced by off-script, off-prompter, what else he let fly in.
Das war ja eine Rede, die quasi dieses menschliche Leid immer wieder an den unterschiedlichsten Stellen sehr explizit auch angesprochen hat. Er hat über einen Kampfpiloten gesprochen, der dem ins Bein geschossen wurde, als er den Angriff gegen Maduro und Venezuela geflogen hat, der unter größtem Schmerz und Blutverlust trotzdem noch diesen Anflug auch durchgezogen hat.
Er hat über Töchter gesprochen, die auf übelste Art und Weise ermordet wurden und ist auch sehr, sehr grafisch geworden. Ich glaube, das waren diese drastischen grafischen Bilder des Leides, auch einfach der harten Verletzung und des Mordes.
Das hat sich durchgezogen und ich könnte mir durchaus auch vorstellen, dass sich Trump möglicherweise in dem Moment auch einfach hat verleiten lassen, dieses Bild noch einmal zu zeichnen. Ob das strategisch sinnvoll war oder nicht, ich glaube, das muss man dann eben nach einer 115-Minuten-Rede möglicherweise auch auseinandersetzen.
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Chapter 3: What were the reactions of the Republicans and Democrats during the speech?
I think that was point one. Der zweite Punkt war die Migration, wo er ganz klar sagt, die Demokraten wollen weiter nicht mitmachen. Die wollen an ihren Sanctuary Cities festhalten, also im Endeffekt Schutzgebieten für illegale Migranten, wo wir nicht ausliefern, nicht abschieben können. Das kann so natürlich auch nicht weitergehen.
And I think the third point, there he had a relatively clever, a few quasi already populist topics and said, we want in the end that the Democrats stop insider trading. Which is totally fascinating, because he quasi tries to remove the corruption argument from the Democrats. He says, Nancy Pelosi and some other Democrats get exactly how the market will develop tomorrow.
Nancy Pelosi earns an incredible amount of money on the stock market, although she is of course a representative and, as I said, gets secret information before the average citizen. And that's why we want to enforce this new law so that this can no longer happen. The second thing she said is,
Im Endeffekt auch sicherzustellen, dass große Corporations nicht mehr Häuser aufkaufen können und somit auch den Mietraum für durchschnittliche Amerikaner wegnehmen können.
Das heißt, obwohl er eigentlich der absolute Plutokrat ist, mehr als zwei Milliarden verdient hat in diesem ersten Jahr seiner Präsidentschaft, schafft er es trotzdem, sich wieder quasi auf die Seite des kleinen Manns zu stellen und die Demokraten als komplett out of touch darstellen zu lassen. Ich glaube, das war ein kluger Move von ihm.
Aber du sagst, geht das wirklich auf, wenn man gleichzeitig an die Berichte denkt, wie seine eigene Familie, wie Steve Witkoff in den vergangenen Wochen und Monaten verdient haben? Wir kennen auch die Geschichten über die Bitcoin-Entwicklung, was auch einen seiner Söhne betrifft.
Und immer wieder dieser Verdacht, aber auch die Berichterstattung, die mitschwingt, dass Donald Trump viel machen könnte, was am Ende auch seiner Familie Reichtum bringt.
Also fällt diese, ich würde es jetzt gar nicht Doppelzüngigkeit nennen, aber die dann schon durchaus offensive Verkaufe des Ganzen auf, angesichts der Berichte, die ihn ja theoretisch zumindest selbst unter Druck setzen müssten.
I don't think it has to go up. I don't think he has to convince people that he has a completely pure West. I think the strategy here is mudding the water. In fact, to poison the source, to pollute the water so much that you no longer know who is right, who is wrong. Or you just say, come on, they're all under one blanket or they're all corrupt. I think that's enough.
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Chapter 4: What was Trump's stance on Iran during the address?
I think, Paul, there is also a chance for Donald Trump here. If Donald Trump would now just moderate these tariffs and would say, we have almost achieved that, many countries simply stick to the free trade agreements that we have established, I think that would bring enormous reassurance into the markets.
Maybe it would even lead to a conjunctural upheaval and almost of course again to an increase in stock prices. People would say, then we can now invest more safely, attract the economy again and that would of course help him significantly before the midterm elections. Aber das kann natürlich John nicht.
Ich glaube, er muss hier auch wieder den Kampf suchen und quasi jetzt auch die Demokraten und den Supreme Court auch attackieren.
Und dass er den Supreme Court so attackiert und sagt, stop it John, während seiner Rede oder zu Beginn seiner Rede. Well, that's also something where under normal circumstances, I say now without Trump, which would probably be a huge scandal alone. So a president who tries to influence the Supreme Court on independent judges. But that's completely normalized by Trump now, isn't it?
I would also say that the temperature has simply adjusted. It went on at the weekend when Trump said, I can do whatever I want. The Constitution of course says quite clearly, we have separation of powers. So you can't do what you want. There are still checks and balances and the Supreme Court, which also im Zweifelsfall einfängt.
Ich glaube aber auch, dass natürlich jeder Präsident immer versucht hat, seine eigene Macht auszubauen. George W. Bush nach dem 11. September kam mit dem Patriot Act, was so eigentlich vorher nie möglich war, Überwachungsstaat eingeführt.
Barack Obama hat natürlich auch versucht, presidential powers auszubauen, Thronenschläge, all das, was dazugehört, wo er quasi auch wieder das Fenster aufgestoßen hat und kein Präsident rudert plötzlich wieder zurück.
And Donald Trump comes, of course, and says, I had the impression that I could not do all that in my first term of office, because I had people who blocked me, also from my own cabinet. And accordingly, I now get a team that is quasi to all yes and no.
And if the Supreme Court goes against me, then of course I have to push against it as hard as I can, even if it sometimes means that I always lose.
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Chapter 5: How did Trump address the issue of tariffs and the Supreme Court?
Das heißt, hier ist wieder Peace through Strength. Und das war natürlich auch ein Signal an China, natürlich auch Richtung Moskau und natürlich auch Richtung Teheran.
You speak of Moscow. In past big speeches, especially when he wasn't president yet, Donald Trump talked about Ukraine and said he would make peace in 24 hours. when the president was said, yes, in a few weeks, has always set new deadlines.
Suddenly, and the whole thing happened around the anniversary, yes, the fourth anniversary of the Russian full invasion against Ukraine, Putin and Zelensky did not play a role in this speech at all.
Null. Die einzige Referenz, die kam, war als er quasi in der allerletzten Section seiner Rede über Außenpolitik gesprochen hat, wo er natürlich erst sagte, ich habe acht Kriege beendet und wie gesagt Militärausgaben signifikant nach oben gefahren und unser Militär stärker gemacht hat.
Then he says at some point, well, and we managed to get the NATO alliance partners to finally get 5% of their gross domestic product for the armament. No one in front of me has made it, I have made it. And then he says, all the arms deliveries to Ukraine, NATO has basically paid for it completely and we have basically earned money with it.
Aber das war die einzige Referenz, die ich dort gehört habe. Putin ist nicht erwähnt worden, Zelensky ist nicht erwähnt worden und ich glaube, das war natürlich auch Teil der Strategie, niemanden daran zu erinnern, dass er eben gesagt hätte, es würde ihn 24 Stunden dauern und er an der Stelle natürlich dieses Versprechen nicht eingehalten hat.
From what Trump now, everything that we have also discussed, what of that will now, in these hours, in the next day, let's say, as a viral hit in the conservative forums, in the lean forums, in the Trump groups, what will you somehow poke forward from the speech that has remained to somehow solidify this impression?
I think that will probably be one of the central parts. That's just the feel-good aspect, where the American ice hockey team opens up right from the start. And then these young men come in their USA polo Ralph Lauren pulleys. And Trump greets them and says, it's unbelievable what you've done. You defeated Canada. You are great. In fact, you have won the first victory in 40 years.
He congratulated her. He also had her in the Oval Office in the afternoon, made videos that all run on social media. Of course, there were all these video clips with Cash Patel, the FBI director who drove over there, drank beer right after the victory.
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Chapter 6: What was the context of Trump's comments on immigration?
If I announce today as president, tomorrow I will do X, for example, now the law, the congressmen, not be able to start insider trading anymore, then I have to do an event tomorrow for that. Next, I have to do an event the day after tomorrow. I have to send out my cabinet. I have to organize town hall meetings, stage events, pictures, otherwise the whole thing goes down.
I want to give an example. Remember the probably best moment of Olaf Scholz's presidency back then? The moment when, right after Putin's attack, he held the turn of events speech in the Bundestag. That also lasted a maximum of two days, but then the word remained, but the rest was blown away. In the end, you have to go straight out.
If I had consulted Olaf Scholz back then, I would have said, hold the time when you speak. Right after that, you go up to the dome of the Bundestag. The German Marine One, the German helicopter, has to be ready to go there and Olaf Scholz has to fly to Rheinmetall right away and look at the armor production there.
From there he has to fly directly to the Polish partners, from there he has to fly to NATO, he has to visit the federal partners. You have to stage something like this non-stop. If there is no picture, then it goes under.
And I think that's where Donald Trump should, of course, if he wants to carry on this message, not be lazy, get stuck in the White House, which he, as I said, has never done before, but he has to continue directly tomorrow in the next 24 hours and create the next picture and also look for the next attack.
Julius, we will continue to look at what Donald Trump is doing, especially with regard to Iran, what could possibly happen there in the region. First of all, thank you very much, after you watched this speech all night, that you took the time in the early morning to analyze this in detail in our podcast.
Thank you very, very much and the people will wake up here and now hopefully hear this podcast. I wish you a good night and a few Ruhe Stunden, bis dann die nächste Trump-Analyse auf dich wartet.
Paul, vielen Dank.
Danke, dass ihr zugehört habt. Wenn es Feedback gibt, egal ob positiv oder kritisch, lasst gerne einen Kommentar da. Ich lese sie auch alle. Und bewertet den Podcast und abonniert ihn natürlich, wenn ihr nichts verpassen wollt.
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