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Stock Club

#314: Can SpaceX Really Be Worth $2 Trillion?

04 Jun 2026

Transcription

Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.

Chapter 1: What is SpaceX's targeted valuation for its IPO?

0.031 - 25.498 Mike

So 2025 revenue was $18.7 billion, up 33% from the year before. However, it made a net loss of around $5 billion. Now, on an adjusted EBITDA basis, the company reported $6.6 billion in profit for the year, but that's not including stock-based compensation, depreciation costs on the Starlink satellites, and then most pertinently, AI CapEx. I mean, right off the bat, right off the bat,

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25.9 - 34.42 Emmet

That's bland for a company that's going to go between 1.75 and 2 trillion. Like 33% revenue growth?

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Chapter 2: How has SpaceX's revenue and losses evolved recently?

34.44 - 34.801 Emmet

Come on.

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35.182 - 41.918 Mike

You can do better than that.

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42.269 - 61.982 Emmet

Welcome to Stock Club, the podcast where we find and discuss stocks that anyone can buy, many of which we believe will go on to grow your wealth. Mike, Investicon, 27th of August 2026, Dublin, Ireland, specifically the market bar for a day of tapas.

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61.962 - 91.429 Emmet

and wealth creation from among others my investing superhero david gardner co-founder of the motley fool and apart from leaving with the top investment ideas from our many guests you will have first refusal on anything else investicon may do in the future and i suspect that may be something you'll want so listen up folks hop on to investicon.ie early bird tickets are still available

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91.409 - 96.015 Emmet

And when they're gone, they're G-O-N-E. They're gone. You want to be at this.

Chapter 3: What are the business divisions contributing to SpaceX's revenue?

96.455 - 115.138 Emmet

You will make friends and make contacts and most of all, be one of the early attendees. That's something that we have a vision for that is bigger than I can articulate right now. So get onto investicon.ie and you will be treated favorably forevermore. And apart from anything, meet some wonderful people.

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115.591 - 119.976 Mike

Mike, how are you this week? Struggling. Struggling with small business.

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Chapter 4: What governance risks are associated with SpaceX's leadership?

120.016 - 130.868 Mike

We spent a few days in London. It was, what, 35 degrees every day? Yeah. Come back down to France and it's been 34 degrees both days. So I'm waiting for this weather to break. I'm dying.

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131.549 - 138.477 Emmet

So our American listeners are going, dang, that's cold. No, we mean Celsius, folks. That is extremely hot.

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Chapter 5: What are the implications of a potential Tesla and SpaceX merger?

138.457 - 162.999 Mike

So what is it that's that close to 100? I think maybe it's in the 90s. Anyway, I think there's a formula. This is the most boring way to open a podcast in the world, but I've already said the formula to translate Fahrenheit to Celsius is every five degrees above 32. every nine degrees above 32 Fahrenheit is five degrees Celsius.

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163.019 - 174.268 Mike

So 41 is five degrees, 50 is 10, and then add 18, there'll be 68 is 20, add 18 again to that. I'm terrible at doing maths on the phone.

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174.248 - 175.931 Emmet

This is a great podcast so far.

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176.552 - 179.197 Mike

So 86 is 30. Is that correct?

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Chapter 6: How does SpaceX's IPO timing affect investor decisions?

179.257 - 199.134 Emmet

Join our measurement podcast. It's a spinoff, right folks? As you can see, we have something here. Did you know that gravity on Earth is 9.81 meters per second squared? We're going to do all the planets. So 35 degrees is 96 Fahrenheit. There you go. I'm impressed. I'm not going to tell you my brain hack.

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199.174 - 207.27 Emmet

I think I had 96, but you know, if I, if I spell out my brain hack, as soon as you said 35, I thought 96, do you know, I'm actually, no, I won't.

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Chapter 7: What are the concerns regarding SpaceX's AI division, xAI?

207.35 - 211.157 Emmet

I won't. I'll save it for the other podcast because it's completely nerd central.

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211.627 - 216.154 Mike

No one wants to know how the sausage is made. What are we talking today?

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216.715 - 240.25 Emmet

Any big IPOs coming up? Last week, we spoke about Cerebras, which is a couple of weeks ago, which was the second biggest IPO of the year. I think we said it on the pod. But one promises to overshadow them all. And by them all, we mean every IPO to date, excluding Saudi Amco. Including?

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Chapter 8: What are the predictions for SpaceX's future valuation post-IPO?

240.23 - 265.95 Emmet

Oh, so we have the behemoth of all IPOs coming up, none other than everybody's favorite space company, SpaceX. So we thought we'd do a little bit of a podcast to shed some new angles on this company that we've all heard about. And the industry we've spoken about here on this podcast very many times. And it's eponymous founder who we have also spoken about very, very many times.

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266.771 - 279.13 Emmet

And there's so many things you can talk about from the industry to the company to the founder. We figured, well, let's just start with the brass tacks. And you and I divided up.

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279.11 - 304.459 Emmet

uh the the roles and responsibilities on this particular analysis where you mike are going to talk a little bit about the company that is being brought to market what they're saying and i'm going to talk a little bit about the founder elon musk like as if he needs any introduction and before we go there it's funny because i believe that some companies only illuminate

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304.439 - 330.835 Emmet

are become real in our minds when we see them. Like I was invested in Under Armour at least 10 years before I ever saw one of their products in real life. And probably the same for Lululemon. I invest in that so far. So probably 15 years before I even saw one of their garments in real life. Same for Deckers Outdoor, who were the and are the makers of Ugg boots. And I have the longest history of

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330.815 - 358.302 Emmet

of investing in companies before I ever experienced them. And Netflix is probably my biggest example where I was a shareholder for at least 15 years before I had a touch point with the product. It was just a word in black and white on my screen. And there's dozens more where I invested in something that I never really got to touch and feel. Now, they were all B2C, business to consumer.

359.064 - 365.616 Emmet

So SpaceX does not and cannot fit the mold, but it's of such a scale and size.

366.217 - 378.217 Mike

Starlink has its customers, you know. You're living... you know, quite urban, suburban Dublin. So you're not really, you know, the target customer, but there are plenty of people in Ireland.

378.257 - 397.525 Emmet

You're absolutely right. I have set up a commission to Starlink. And you know something, when I was thinking about what to say on the podcast, I didn't have a dotted line between the Starlink and this little diatribe. You're absolutely right. But the business is culturally omnipresent now. And whether it's

397.505 - 416.914 Emmet

accessible or inaccessible to you, our listener through Starlink are literally just, you know, of it. Uh, it is something too ginormous to, to, I suppose, ignore for start. I mean, most of us, I think we'll never ride on a SpaceX rocket or deploy satellite or,

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