Street Signals

Crude Awakening: Rate Markets In An Energy Crisis

02 Apr 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Many of the consequences of the latest disruption to global energy supply have yet to surface. While oil has been the immediate focus, volatility acro...

Iran Macro Risks: A Fragile Equilibrium

19 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

As the conflict in the Middle East enters a third week, markets remain uneasy but resilient. Lessons absorbed during past geopolitical shocks have so ...

Strait Signals: Assessing the Iran War Risk Premium

12 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

A wider Middle East war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, seen for years as extreme ‘what-if’ risks, are now realities. The ranges of macro...

The Great Rotation: Stocks Under the Surface

05 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

While geopolitical uncertainty dominates headlines, this week’s episode digs deeper into themes driving markets before the weekend’s event...

Trading the Policy Whiplash

26 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Market volatility continues to climb in February, with a landmark Supreme Court ruling on US tariffs last week upending US trade policy in an afternoo...

The Year of the Fire Horse: China in Focus

19 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

In celebration of Lunar New Year, we take a deep dive into China’s political economy. Despite trade tensions, a weak consumer and a halting post‑C...

AI, Labor Disruptions and the Future of the Fed

12 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The changing of the guard at the top of the Federal Reserve comes at a crucial time for policymakers and markets. It is far from certain whether the p...

The Roots of Risk

29 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Everybody loves an origin story, this week’s podcast has two. Featuring clips from our first episode, before the podcast even had a name, with our f...

The US Dollar Time Machine: Relevant Lessons from History

22 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Extrapolating past results to predict future outcomes is typically futile. But what if we could isolate the most statistically relevant historic paral...

Taking Stock of '26: A Conversation with Ron O'Hanley

15 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and...

Tackling the 2026 Consensus

08 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their ...

The Best Reads of 2025

18 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Just before Christmas, it's tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've rea...

Trading Notes for '26

11 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from...

The 12 Trades of Risk-mas: A 2026 Macro Outlook

04 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent...

Imbalanced Accounts: Trade and Capital in 2025 with Brad Setser

20 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The signal events and dominant narratives of 2025 have not had quite the advertised effects where global current account and capital flow trends are c...

Global Competition and Its Trade Offs with Elliot Hentov

13 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week, we dive into the nuanced world of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment M...

Growth Beyond the AI Trade: Where Next?

06 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Q3 earnings look like a prelude to a Santa rally, capping off another strong year for stocks. Sticking with a holiday theme, we can give thanks later ...

The US Dollar Downtrend: Dawn or Denouement?

30 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk r...

Convexity, Resilience and Building Better Brakes with David Dredge

23 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Investors tend to underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persi...

Fundamentals Over FOMO: Value Investing in the Age of AI

16 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week,&nbs...

Shutdown Economics

09 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzz...

Constructing the Macro Mosaic with Mark Dow

02 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macr...

Do You Trust the Data?

25 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Data drives decisions big and small, but a steady and worrying trend of deteriorating quality in public economic data adds an under-appreciated comple...

How Stretched Are Stocks?

18 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Our title is the most-often asked question of recent weeks, with equity markets making new all-time highs and inflows continuing, despite an overwhelm...

Gilt Trip: Budgets, UK Politics and the Path of Populism

11 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour P...

No More Fear Left for Fall?

04 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. Its not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl an...

Jackson Hole and Beyond: Labor Pains for the Fed

21 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoi...

The Buck Stops Where? FX Risk-Proofing for the Long Term

14 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before...

Where Next on Inflation's Puzzling Path?

07 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserves monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year,...

The Summer 2025 Market Watchlist

31 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions ha...

Marvin Barth: The Framework of a Second American Century

17 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerat...

The Big Beautiful Podcast On Tax Cuts and Tariffs

10 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by th...

The Temperature Rises, Markets Keep Their Cool

26 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial m...

Yuan Direction: Asian FX, Oil and the US Rate Outlook

19 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the fr...

Asset Allocation In the Age of Fragmentation

12 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political econo...

US Equities: Complacently Crowded or Suddenly Safe?

05 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 ca...

Craig Fuller: Tariffs and Twists in Global Supply Chains

29 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the ma...

Gold Rush 2.0: Putting the Pedal to the Metal

22 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold ov...

Dollar Discussions In The Desert

15 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State St...

No Country For Old Macro Men

08 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

After an episode of extreme, headline-driven volatility in April, financial markets have shifted to docility in May. Position risks in equity and FX m...

Repricing Markets for US Political Risk

01 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken...

Alberto Cavallo: Tracking the Price Impacts of US Tariffs

25 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As financial markets continue to adjust for the ramifications of a global reordering of trade relationships, the first evidence of the impact of tarif...

Bear With Us? Talking Markets Amidst the Maelstrom

17 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Market volatility is subsiding but risk managers are still determining whether the recent, sharp moves and unusual correlation dynamics in stocks, bon...

Tariffs: The Price Is Fright

10 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Having underestimated the breadth and size of trade barriers imposed by the United States on all its trading partners, markets continue to come to gri...

Trading Around Trade: A Risk Manager's Perspective

02 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

By the end of today, economists and financial market participants are hoping to be in a better position to understand and assess the impact of propose...

Tariffs, Targets and Tech: Asia's Pivotal Moment

27 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

While US trade and fiscal policy dominate the popular discourse, recent developments across Asia have the potential to be every bit as consequential f...

How Doomed Is the Dollar?

20 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The recent reversals in the US dollar, US rates and US equities have been sharp and rapid. A growing sense that not all is well with the US consumer, ...

The Ukraine Peace Process: Signpost to a New Global Order

13 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The breakdown in communication between the US and Ukraine two weeks ago, for all the world to see, raises myriad questions, from the near-term state o...

Tech Wreck 2025: Bubble Bursting or Buying Opportunity?

06 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Consensus trades have been put to the sword. Expectations for higher rates, a stronger US dollar, crypto currencies to the moon and especially US tech...

The Other Side in the Trade War

27 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Amidst rising tensions and trade tariffs, market discussion often lands on how rising costs of US imports will affect the American consumer, the US ba...

Tariffs, Truce Talks and 3-3-3: Flooding the Macro Zone

20 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Financial markets cannot get a break from headlines. The Trump Administration is rolling out – and in some cases rolling back – trade tari...

Ben Ashby: Applying History’s Lessons to Today's Markets

13 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

From interest rate cycles to equity valuations, long-term market trends follow a rhythm that shapes global macro—often in ways that aren’t...

Richard Windsor: DeepSeek and the AI Arms Race

06 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Last week's emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI model promising transformative cost savings and strong performance relative to other large language mo...

Short-Term Market Turmoil, Long-Term Building Blocks

30 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

A tricky few weeks in markets are putting several of the consensus trades to the sword. As investors grapple with mixed signals and increasing bifurca...

Trump vs the Bond Market: Who Blinks?

23 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

On the heels of another mediocre year for bonds, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen significant gyrations in fixed income markets. The policies of ...

Ron O'Hanley: What Matters for Markets In 2025

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Two weeks into the New Year, the economic and market outlook for 2025 is marked by uncertainty. Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, ...

Putting the Macro Consensus Under the Microscope

09 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The current market consensus sees equities higher, led by continued strength in the tech sector, interest rates staying at current, high levels or eve...

The Best Reads of 2024

19 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Just before Christmas, it is tradition for us to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year....

Trading the Outlook for 2025

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, we recap the year just gone in macro markets, and get a preview of what’s to come in 2025, in a conversation with traders from the FX...

15 Ideas for '25: The Year Ahead Podcast

05 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

We head into year-end with our annual presentation of the best opportunities in markets for the New Year. Every December, members of our macro strateg...

Trump Trades: What's In the Price?

21 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After a year of range-bound behavior, fixed income and FX markets are trending. The catalyst? The anticipation and election of Donald Trump as US Pres...

Sébastien Page: Going Beyond Diversification

14 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Bridging the gap between financial theory and investment practice has been the hallmark of research at State Street for more than 25 years. So, we are...

Election 2024: What's Next for Markets?

06 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The votes are cast and the results from the 2024 Election are rolling in. In-house election guru Noel Dixon joins Street Signals with his initial thou...

Fredrik Repton: Preparing Portfolios for Market Turbulence

31 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Among all the other risks, next week’s US election and Federal Reserve meeting dominate the market outlook and look set to drive price action and vo...

Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Marriage of Convenience?

24 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Private cryptocurrency has been around for 15 years. Institutional acceptance is here. Movement towards public, central bank-issued digital currencies...

Martin Gurri: The Consequences of the Digital Age

17 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The rise of the internet 25 years ago amplified information, in the process accelerating the deterioration of institutional structures around the worl...

China: Stimulus and Response

10 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Beijing's latest round of economic stimulus includes a slew of measures to reignite demand and aid in the repair of household balance sheets. So far, ...

Easy Policies Don't Always Make For Easy Markets

03 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Monetary and fiscal policymakers are pivoting to easing mode. In developed markets, the restrictive rate policies of the post-COVID period are reversi...

From Polling to Portfolios: Assessing the Post-Election Market Landscape

26 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US Presidential election is six weeks away, polls are dead-locked and the most relevant questions for markets remain open. Which electoral baromet...

Did Greedflation Fuel Post-Pandemic Price Rises?

19 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Greedflation - companies exploiting a high inflation environment to raise prices relatively more than costs - has grabbed attention and headlines in e...

Easing, Elections and the Experiences of a Veteran Trader

12 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Experience in markets helps practitioners cope with the inevitable cyclicality of economic fundamentals and risk appetite. Combining the muscle memory...

Asset Allocation: A Late 2024 Balancing Act

05 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets dealt well with volatility in early August and got a boost from the Federal Reserve’s dovish message in Jackson Hole at the end of the month...

Jackson Hole: An Easier Message Ahead?

21 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium starts tomorrow. It takes on added significance this year, with an easing cycle seen st...

Four Themes Driving Summer Markets

15 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After a burst of volatility, markets are settling. Is the turmoil over or was it the opening episode in a destabilizing series of events? We don’t k...

Summer Volatility Is Back – Will It Last?

08 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The volatility of the last two weeks can be ascribed to many events and raises more questions than answers. Was it a clear-out of crowded positions in...

Market Rotation: Healthy or Harmful?

01 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Quiet summer markets were disrupted recently by sharp moves in equities, as the long-standing strength of IT and communication stocks gave way to a su...

Conviction Views for Quiet Markets

25 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Summer lulls in market activity are common, but this year's calm is unique. Interest rate, FX and volatility markets are rangebound despite jarring he...

A Mid-Year Report Card for Emerging Markets

18 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

At the end of 2023, attractive yields and valuations on emerging market assets and currencies made for many consensus long calls from sell-side strate...

US Inflation Explained: Where We've Been and Where It's Going

11 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Trends in US inflation have been, are and will be one of the critical drivers of markets. After a bumpy first quarter, fears of an inflationary spiral...

Toby Nangle: Asset Allocation in a High-Rate Era

02 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Higher yields change the game for asset allocators around the world, with pensions in particular now able to better match liabilities to assets. In th...

Dan Drezner: Financial Markets and the Road to the Oval Office

27 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This evening's Presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump kick starts a campaign season that, so far, has been a formality and failed to s...

Helen Thomas: The 2024 UK General Election and the Turning Political Tide

18 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

After 14 years of Conservative government, the upcoming UK General Election on 4 July will bring seismic change. From both the left and the right, the...

The 2024 Election Super Cycle

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With elections in 63 countries, representing 40% of global population and GDP, the democratic process will see few years like 2024. The US election lo...

Shark Tank 2024: The Best Trade Ideas for the Rest of the Year

06 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

This week, we kick off a series of podcasts recorded at or on the sidelines of our 2024 Research Retreats, taking place across North America, Europe a...

China and India: A Year of Transition

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

China and India contribute more than a third to global population, but still only account for a quarter of global output. So, as their economies matur...

Harley Bassman: What One-And-Done From the Fed Means for Rate Markets

23 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Markets are back to all-time highs and volatility is normalizing, with the rate outlook for the remainder of the year coming into clearer focus. Is it...

Mark Sobel: Currency Diplomacy and Dollar Dominance

16 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Dynamics in today's currency markets are informed by historic events and trends that shaped the structure and of the global economy. Building on a lif...

Consumer Concerns: What Are Earnings Telling Us?

09 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Outside of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, profit warnings and unsettling forward guidance through Q1 earnings season have sparked a re-assessment of d...

Searching for Safe Havens

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

April brought a reality check to markets after a stellar Q1, sparking demand for safety across assets and currencies. The higher for longer rate envir...

Are Rate Hikes Back On The Table?

25 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Lee Ferridge returns to the podcast to give his latest take on FX, interest rate and risk markets. Ever the road warrior, we focus first on the consen...

Claudia Sahm: The US Consumer, Inflation and the Fed's Response

18 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The US labor market and consumer continue to defy expectations of slowing, yet we are encouraged to believe that monetary policy is in restrictive ter...

Can China Avoid the Japan Trap?

11 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Similar to Japan in the 1990s, China faces twin headwinds of excessive debt deleveraging and demographic deterioration, with the addition of a multi-y...

View From The Trading Desk: After A Stellar Q1, What to Make of Q2?

04 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It was a great first quarter for risky assets and carry trades, perhaps surprisingly, given recent economic data and events have actually offered a fe...

Alberto Cavallo: Are We At An Inflation Inflection Point?

28 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

A turn higher in inflation carries with it the potential to disrupt the current easing plans of central banks and create volatility, in similar fashio...

How Long Can Carry Remain King?

21 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Low and stable currency market volatility is feeding interest in yield-seeking strategies to a degree not seen in years. How long can the good times l...

Any Better for Bonds?

14 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Last October, we did an episode asking whether it was a good time to buy bonds answering, 'Yes, it probably was', with the release date marking the 16...

Brent Donnelly: Carry On Trading

07 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With decades of experience as an FX trader, portfolio manager and writer, Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, is an ideal guest for a period...

Election 2024: Navigating the Twists and Turns of the US Election Cycle

29 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The 2024 US election cycle has begun in earnest, with next week's Super Tuesday primaries likely to solidify Joe Biden and Donald Trump as their respe...

Preston Mui: Unpacking the Productivity Puzzle

22 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Preston Mui, a senior economist at Employ America, joins us this week, to dive into the improving trend in US productivity growth. Drawing on a recent...

Mark Dow: Making Sense of Macro Narratives

15 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In a long career as an economist and trader, Mark Dow has seen almost everything. With one eye always on the narratives and behavioral elements that d...