Gavin Baker: SpaceX Might Be the Greatest Company of All Time
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Gavin Baker, welcome to the show. How are you doing? Yeah, fantastically, right? SpaceX IPO, it seems like everything went just flawlessly to a T, like to the point where it wasn't even dramatic.
Let's give a round of applause for the bankers.
The bankers, like 20% perfect. 20% pop almost to a T. Yeah, what I mean by that is like, it would have been more dramatic if it had like popped up 70% and then went down 30 and then went up 50 and it was drama, but it was just like perfect execution from start to finish.
What are the highlights of the SpaceX IPO?
Was that how you interpreted it?
I thought Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley did a very good job.
What do you think the market is looking for SpaceX next? Is it all eyes on the first earnings report? Where do we go from here? Because there's so much of the SpaceX story pre-IPO that was a decade out, five years out, two years out. But is the market going to be processing quarter by quarter plays like many other companies?
Well, I think the market is always, you know, quarters matter. You know, the runners on X, you know, it's like they're these reply people on X for any topic or experts. But somebody once told me a marathon is 26 one-mile runs. And so, you know, and then all the runners were like, no, that's not true at all. You know, obviously running a mile is different than running a marathon. But, you know, every quarter matters. But at the same time, I do think if you look at how, The market has looked at Tesla over the last five, six years, Amazon during the days when they were building out AWS, and then their retail distribution infrastructure when they'd go through these investment cycles. I do think the public market has a much greater tolerance
for investment and a much longer time horizon than a lot of people in the venture ecosystem give it credit for. By the way, this is Foxy in the back. He's one of the analysts here at Atreides.
I was just listening to him on the Brad Gerstner podcast. I think he chimed in on that, right? You brought him with? There we go.
Yes, he did. But he did the work on SpaceX, so I thought you guys might want to talk about that. But I do think... I'm not sure the story is as far out as you made it seem to be. I think there are two variables that are going to matter a lot over the next year. The first is just how quickly can they bring on terrestrial compute? It does seem like they monetize gigawatts at a higher rate than anyone else. And we know from Jensen that they bring on data centers faster than anyone else, per Jensen's words. And everyone in the ecosystem is really incented to get land power in the hands of people who can energize it because everybody starts making more money when the GPUs are energized.
What does Gavin Baker see as the future for SpaceX post-IPO?
So, you know, if they can, what was the altimeter figure for what they were monetizing gigawatts at, Foxy, do you remember? For which deal? well i think it was like two to three wasn't it like at least two times higher than like average neocloud pricing and that's partly due to scale and customer quality and things like that but it was meaningful yeah so they're doing 50 billion a gigawatt on the google deal so how quickly they can add gigawatts really matters yeah right if you can energize two three four gigawatts yep in the next year, that's a lot of revenue. Now, you know, prices may go up, they may go down, but that's really going to matter.
So all eyes on Colossus 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, et cetera, at least in the short term.
Yeah, or macro hard, macro harder, macro... Hardest. To that, yeah, macro hardest. Yeah. And then I think cursor is another big variable. You know, we talked about it with Brad about how Composer 2.5, after three weeks of, you know, RL and supervised fine tuning Colossus 2, is kind of Pareto dominant. So what's going to happen when it's applied to a bigger, better base model? I do think Cursor being in, you know, half the Fortune 500 is interesting. So I think those two things, you know, while I mean, I'm super excited for going to Mars and asteroid mining and, you know, a city and mass drivers on the moon, like all that stuff is awesome.
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