The 10-Minute Take

Are higher oil prices good or bad for Canada’s economy?

26 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising ques...

The fallout from the global oil shock on U.S. inflation

13 Mar 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headl...

What’s next for U.S. tariffs after IEEPA strike down

26 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far fr...

Inflation’s stubborn ceiling: Why the Fed’s 2% target remains elusive

12 Feb 2026

Contributed by Lukas

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reasons go well beyond a single cause. While some...

Breaking the trade trap: Can Canada diversify fast enough?

29 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vu...

Season 4 premiere: What 2026 holds for North America

15 Jan 2026

Contributed by Lukas

We're back for season four! In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal th...

Three common economic trends in Canada and the U.S. in 2025

18 Dec 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more simila...

What Does the End of the US Government Shutdown Mean for the Data and the Fed?

27 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The US government shutdown has ended after 43 days – the longest in history – and economists now have more clarity on the data release schedule. B...

Canadian Budget 2025: How should we be thinking about bigger deficits?

13 Nov 2025

Contributed by Lukas

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with h...

When data goes dark: The ripple effects of a U.S. government shutdown

23 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility ov...

International trade 101—the Canadian edition

02 Oct 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as:• What exactly d...

Rate Cuts and Crossroads: What’s Next for the Fed and BoC?

18 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate b...

Are U.S. tariffs close to achieving their goals?

04 Sep 2025

Contributed by Lukas

U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against ...

Stagflation lite: What this means for the U.S. economy

21 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour mark...

BoC hits pause: Why rates aren’t budging amidst uncertainty

07 Aug 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian econo...

Is Canada's housing market regaining its footing?

24 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.But even with three cons...

Why is the U.S. unemployment rate low amid trade uncertainty?

02 Jul 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars. A long-term structural trend—surging retiremen...

How worried should we be about spiking oil prices?

19 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation ...

How is large government debt in the U.S. shaping its economy?

05 Jun 2025

Contributed by Lukas

An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading t...

How has the U.S.-China trade war de-escalation impacted our forecasts?

22 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. ...

Trade war backlash: Where are Canadians vacationing now?

08 May 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year. ...

Forecasting in volatile times: Are tariffs a game changer for growth and inflation?

24 Apr 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, a...

Are services immune to tariffs in the trade war?

31 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate. In ...

Have the impact of tariffs shown up in the jobs market yet?

19 Mar 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witne...

Is inflation making a comeback in Canada?

26 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Economic data has shown that Canadian inflation was a little firmer than expected in early 2025, especially after considering the impact of the federa...

What we’ve learned about U.S.-Canada trade so far

11 Feb 2025

Contributed by Lukas

As the threat of tariffs has been evolving, economists have been busy assessing the potential economic fallout. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Carr...

How do Economists measure the impact of potential tariffs on Canada?

27 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

The looming threat of potential U.S. tariffs is keeping economists and monetary policymakers up at night. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan...

The Loonie slump: What’s behind it and where it’s headed

16 Jan 2025

Contributed by Lukas

Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip ag...

What economists are thinking about heading into 2025

12 Dec 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Canadian economy has been through a whirlwind in 2024. Canada has been in an extended period of underperforming per capita growth compared to the ...

What does a massive U.S. government deficit mean for Canada?

28 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. government deficit is unusually large at 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2024—the average over the last five decades is 3.7%. Promises fr...

Why are so many Canadians struggling if we’re amassing record savings?

12 Nov 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Canadian household balance sheets appear exceptionally strong as disposable income continues to rise alongside savings. But, what the latest economic ...

Will there be another jumbo rate cut from the BoC in December?

29 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in October—marking the largest reduction since the pandemic. A day later, the federal g...

Canadians are still renewing mortgages at higher rates- will this hurt the economy?

17 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With many Canadian households planning to renew longer-term fixed rate mortgages at higher rates into 2025 and 2026, Canada’s “mortgage renewal cl...

Inflation is back at 2%—why doesn’t it feel like it?

03 Oct 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Headline inflation in Canada dropped to the 2% target set by the Bank of Canada for the first time since the pandemic in August. That means higher int...

What led the U.S. Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points?

20 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time since the pandemic in September by 50 basis points. The easing of monetary poli...

What do new Chinese EV tariffs mean for Canadian businesses and consumers?

05 Sep 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The Liberal government recently announced new tariffs on electric vehicles, steel and aluminum imports from China—marking the latest move in the glo...

What have market volatility and recession fears meant for Central Banks?

22 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Both U.S. and Canadian households are facing recession fears- but for different reasons. Downside surprises to U.S. data in early August triggered a m...

Young Canadians are complaining about the economy. Do they have a point?

08 Aug 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Younger Canadians are bearing the brunt of the softening labour market, accounting for the lion’s share— 80%—of the increase in Canada's unemplo...

What is behind Canada’s rising unemployment if it’s not immigration?

25 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The recent deterioration of the Canadian labour market comes at a time when immigration and population growth have also increased significantly. Many ...

What does a second Trump presidency mean for North American trade?

11 Jul 2024

Contributed by Lukas

The focus is back on former U.S. president Donald Trump’s regressive trade policies after the first U.S. presidential debate and heading into Novemb...

Why should we care about a productivity gap in Canada?

27 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Canada’s underperformance in productivity has attracted a lot of limelight recently. It’s not a new problem, but the gap (especially when measured...

Travel season’s here! What can we look forward to?

13 Jun 2024

Contributed by Lukas

With summer approaching, what can we look forward to this year’s travel season that might be different from before? For one, it took longer for Cana...

How does population aging weigh on Canada’s economy, and how can immigration help?

30 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

An aging population has dire economic and fiscal consequences. It means widespread labour shortages, more upward pressure on wage growth and inflation...

What is a neutral rate of interest and why did the Bank of Canada move it higher?

16 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In April, the Bank of Canada shifted its estimate for neutral rate up 25 basis points- a reflection that the 'normal' of interest rates in the post-pa...

Will the Bank of Canada be influenced by higher for longer in the U.S.?

02 May 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In early 2024, the disparity in economic performance among advanced economies has grown more apparent. Increasingly, we are seeing the Canadian econom...

How can we improve housing affordability for Canadians?

18 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Housing affordability has become a generational concern in Canada and recently took centre-stage in the Federal Budget. At today’s prices, two-third...

What can we expect from Canada’s new cap on temporary residents?

03 Apr 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Two weeks ago, Canada’s Minister of Immigration announced plans to limit the scope of international migration in Canada over the coming years. The a...

Why is it so hard for renters to save?

20 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Canadian renters are more squeezed than ever before! Renters are allocating a greater share of their take-home pay to housing than homeowners at the s...

Can Generative AI solve Canada’s productivity challenge?

06 Mar 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Generative AI is still a relatively new technology- to-date, just over 9% of Canadian businesses have adopted it. But among Canadians who use generati...

Will the international student cap impact Canadian rents?

21 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Over the past few years, Canada’s population growth has eclipsed the global average. International students accounted for about 20% of the recent po...

What will drive growth in the back half of 2024?

08 Feb 2024

Contributed by Lukas

In 2023, Canadian households faced higher debt-servicing costs on mortgages and consumer credit as well as higher rents. Canadians had to tighten thei...

Surprises in 2024, already?

24 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

Just a couple of weeks into the new year and the economic landscape is full of surprises. Data on Canadian inflation again showed just how "sticky" do...

When are interest rate cuts coming?

11 Jan 2024

Contributed by Lukas

It’s a new year and the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s overnight rate is currently sitting at its highest level in over two decades. Canadians facing higher...

What surprised economists in 2023?

07 Dec 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Canadian economy has seen some pivotal shifts in 2023. The year started off with inflation at multi-decade highs, widespread labour shortages, and...

What's going on in the Canadian jobs market?

23 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Many indicators these days are pointing to deteriorations in labour market conditions in Canada. Job vacancies are down, job searching time have lengt...

How has soaring immigration impacted economic growth in Canada?

09 Nov 2023

Contributed by Lukas

This past decade, Canada's population growth outpaced India, China, and South and Central America, surpassing the global average. In recent years, Can...

How badly are Canadian businesses and consumers wounded by high interest rates?

25 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

High inflation and even higher interest rates are turning up the heat for Canadians, making it increasingly challenging for consumers and businesses t...

How long can the U.S. economy’s outperformance last?

12 Oct 2023

Contributed by Lukas

U.S GDP growth continues to soar while activity cools off in Canada. Canadians have tightened their belts, prioritizing the purchase of essentials ove...

Why are so many workers on strike these days?

28 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

High inflation has prompted many workers to push for wage increases, and unions are responding by pressuring employers to pony up. Canada has witnesse...

How indebted are Canadians and is it a problem?

14 Sep 2023

Contributed by Lukas

While Americans are still spending, Canadians are tightening their belts. And the U.S. economy continues to surge while Canada's shows early signs of ...

When China sneezes, do we all catch a cold?

31 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Western countries are still grappling with decade-high interest rates and elevated inflation. But in China, prices fell on a year over year basis in J...

Are the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes working?

16 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Western central banks don't want to push interest rates higher…but they will if they need to. So how effective have rate hikes actually been? The la...

Will the pandemic pet economy boom last?

02 Aug 2023

Contributed by Lukas

If you have a four-legged friend at home, that makes you part of the pet economy! Today the global pet industry stands at over $250 billion USD and i...

Why aren’t rising rates cooling Canadian spending?

19 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the 1990s has sent interest rates soaring. Yet Canadians keep on spending. Why and will they keep ...

Will my grocery bills ever get lower?

05 Jul 2023

Contributed by Lukas

If you’re wondering whether your grocery bills will ever turn out less scary than they are now, we have bad news for you. Food inflation peaked in C...

Interest rates are rising again?

21 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The Bank of Canada put the brakes on its record rate hiking cycle in January. Five months later, it sprang back into action—surprising much of Bay S...

What will this year's summer travel season look like?

07 Jun 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Anxious to scratch your travel itch this summer but worried about disruptions and high prices? You’re not alone! In this week’s episode of the 10 ...

What keeps economists up at night?

24 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

“Allow us to introduce ourselves!” In this episode of the 10 Minute Take, get to know RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan. Spend a day ...

Will higher wages arising from labour disputes fire up inflation?

10 May 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Canada's largest public sector strike in decades just ended—with a deal that includes double-digit wage hikes. Will negotiated wage settlements like...

If Canadian home prices are falling, why are rents going through the roof?

26 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Just as house prices in Canada start to cool off, rent costs are heating up. What's driving the increase? Declining affordability comes to mind as hig...

How has market turmoil hit the Canadian economy?

12 Apr 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The failures of SVB and other U.S. regional banks sent markets roiling. But what does this mean for the broader economy? Is it all temporary noise or ...

Will Budget 2023 derail the Bank of Canada's inflation-fighting campaign?

31 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

The federal budget tabled a buffet of new spending measures. But the price tag was hefty: a $40 billion deficit and no sign of a return to balanced bo...

What's up with the long lines at my local coffee shop?

15 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Why are restaurant reservations so hard to find these days? Labour market tightness--it's something we hear on every corner. But what does it really m...

Why are groceries so expensive if inflation is moderating?

01 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Inflation is down, right? So why is my grocery bill still so high? Recent data showed price growth losing steam…yet everything from coffee to chocol...

The Ten-Minute Take (Trailer)

01 Mar 2023

Contributed by Lukas

Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means a...

Why markets are edging higher in spite of cautious corporates

22 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As we head into a pivotal period of the current earnings season, tech stocks have buoyed key Wall Street indices – Nasdaq, for one, briefly hit anot...

U.S. oil demand sputters as lockdowns tighten

15 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Four months into the COVID pandemic and some Americans have hit lockdown fatigue, if traffic data is any indication. Take Las Vegas, which has seen fl...

Canada's fiscal snapshot – massive deficit, record federal debt

09 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The COVID crisis delivered a bigger shock to our economy than most expected. Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020, which pus...

Can U.S. markets stay up while summer shutdowns expand?

06 Jul 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The U.S. gained nearly 5 million jobs in June, but that was before the latest COVID-19 outbreaks. Now, state re-opening plans are being put on hold, i...

How streaming platforms are winning through crisis

29 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

If content is king, then streaming platforms are its thrones. And those thrones are getting higher and higher as consumers cut the cord with tradition...

How the crisis became prime time for Amazon

26 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

While most people have been under lockdowns, The Everything Store has been everywhere. The explosive demand for online shopping and surge in remote wo...

A cloudy outlook for young job seekers

24 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The COVID-19 crisis dealt employees a serious blow, and young people have been hit particularly hard with a nearly 30% unemployment rate. The summer m...

Canada’s provinces are turning the corner on their road to recovery

22 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Last week, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Quebec gave updates on their economic and fiscal situation. They weren't pretty, but there's been enough of a boost ...

Work 2.0: How tech is catalyzing the “remote first" workplace

19 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Practically overnight, legions of office workers shifted to working from home as their employers figure out how to keep them productive. That meant in...

A path to 5G for Canadian telcos

17 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Canada's major telecom operators are forging ahead with their plans to build 5G networks, despite government delays on the decision to allow Huawei to...

Corporate America's moment of truth on racism

15 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Ongoing protests against racism and violence towards Black communities have hit a boiling point, forcing companies everywhere to re-examine their prac...

How renewed COVID fears rattled stock markets​

12 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Global stock markets plunged after the U.S. Federal Reserve issued grim economic projections for the rest of 2020 and beyond. Budding investor optimis...

The geopolitics of OPEC+ oil cuts

10 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The global group of oil producing countries, known as OPEC+, left its key weekend meeting fractured. While OPEC+ agreed to extend production cuts thro...

Can pro sports stage an epic comeback?

08 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

As the PGA Tour starts up again this week, noticeable changes will include tightened safety measures and the absence of on-site fans – par for the c...

To recover, Canadian tourism needs more Canadians

05 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Summer is around the corner, but the forecast for the tourism sector is less-than-sunny. With border and travel restrictions still in place (even betw...

A U-turn for the auto sector?​

03 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

In a bygone era, the Sharing Economy had spelled out the death of the personal car – why have your own vehicle when you could just hail an Uber or L...

How the lockdown may hamper Canada's immigrant-fueled growth

02 Jun 2020

Contributed by Lukas

2020 was supposed to be a record year for newcomers to Canada – what the country needed to offset an aging population. But then COVID happened. The ...

How COVID is heralding a new era in healthcare

29 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Before the pandemic, the challenges plaguing U.S. healthcare seemed insurmountable. Think onerous regulations, outdated processes, and high prices. Bu...

How Maslow's Hierarchy can explain pandemic spending

26 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The start of the COVID crisis might forever be associated with a toilet paper shortage as people went into survival mode and stocked up on staples. Or...

What's ahead for the loonie​

22 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The loonie has defied expectations during the recent rout in oil markets, hitching its wagon to another driver. Move over crude, hello equities. But t...

Why gold is glittering while markets churn

20 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

Gold prices have surged during the COVID crisis, driven by low rates and aggressive policy measures to stimulate the economy and investors looking to ...

Quebec's long haul recovery

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The COVID-19 crisis has hit Québec especially hard. The province is dealing with the highest number of cases in the country in parallel with one of t...

Mixed economic outlooks across Atlantic Canada

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The Atlantic Provinces faced blows of differing magnitudes to their economies in March and April. Newfoundland and Labrador had the double-whammy of t...

Cautious re-opening sets the stage for Ontario's recovery

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The COVID-19 crisis pummeled Ontario's economy and forced more than 1 million people out of a job over the past two months. While the province has avo...

Manitoba, Saskatchewan to see modest recoveries

14 May 2020

Contributed by Lukas

The economies of two of the Prairie Provinces have been relatively shielded from the COVID-19 damage, at least compared to the rest of the country, gi...