The AI Daily Brief: Artificial Intelligence News and Analysis
Why an AGI Delay Doesn't Mean an AI Bubble
21 Oct 2025
Full Episode
Today on the AI Daily Brief, should we be pushing out our AGI timelines a decade? And if we do, what does it mean for this so-called AI bubble? The AI Daily Brief is a daily podcast and video about the most important news and discussions in AI. All right, friends, quick announcements before we dive in. First of all, thank you to today's sponsors, Super Intelligent, KPMG, and Robots and Pencils.
To get an ad-free version of the show, go to patreon.com slash AI Daily Brief, or you can sign up on Apple Podcasts. Now, one quick note, you may be hearing that the sound isn't quite as good as it normally is. I'm traveling and the location that I am traveling at has a full studio setup, except that it wasn't actually working.
And given that we don't really have the benefit of delaying things for days at a time, we're doing our best to use the tools available to us, which means laptop microphones and AI sound improvement. So it is still me doing the presentation. I'm not using an 11 labs version of myself or anything. But the sound quality will be a little bit less.
Luckily, just for today, tomorrow we'll be back to normal. Also, because of that plus an already kind of long main episode, I decided to just do a main today. Headlines will be back again tomorrow as well. Appreciate your patience and let's dive in.
Today we are talking about the weekend where Silicon Valley seemed to lose faith in AGI, or at least changed its AGI timeline very dramatically. And what we're going to discuss today is why even if the AGI timeline that has been all abuzz and the new discussion is correct, it does not mean that AI is a bubble.
And the bubble talk is certainly setting the context for everything happening right now. You can't throw a stone right now without hitting some article about how the AI infrastructure buildout is a bubble. CNN Business, for example, just this weekend wrote why this analyst says the AI bubble is 17 times bigger than the dot-com bust.
Some are trying to have a nuanced take that, yes, it's a bubble, but it's a good bubble. Muhammad Al-Iran calls it a rational bubble. It's very clear that markets are extremely fearful right now. The fear and greed index is a simplified way of understanding what emotion is driving the market at any given time.
And we have switched over the last month from greed to deep into the fear category, even heading down towards extreme fear. Now, part of that, obviously, is the spate of deals between OpenAI and AMD and Oracle and NVIDIA that have people terrified that it's all one big circular web. And if one domino falls, all the rest will.
Now, I've gotten extensively into arguments for and against the bubble, but the point for this show is that that is setting the tone in the backdrop. Now, why it is setting the tone in the backdrop is that we increasingly recognize that AI is propping up the entire economy. Harvard economist Jason Furman shared charts recently with The Simple Analysis.
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