The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast
Episodes
The Fed is navigating using a rearview mirror
06 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A dovish tilt and buybacks are powering the market forward but there's weakness with cracks forming in the consumer facade. Market misconception is pr...
AI and earnings.
29 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AI momentum continues while a bifurcated consumer is a weakness. AI requires real assets, that's an opportunity while sticky inflation remains a threa...
EPISODE 100! "It feels worse than it's been" (the week, not the podcasts)
22 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Global growth is better than expected but higher mortgage rates are dampening housing. There's opportunity as April showers bring May flowers but the ...
King Dollar. Still the safe haven.
15 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The dollar is still king while that hot CPI print is a weakness. Opportunity exists in corporate bonds for income, but the unknown unknowns are a thre...
Gold shines
08 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Gold is at a 5000 year high while retail is on sale. Active management offers an opportunity across the board but inflationary tailwinds intensify.
The return of supply chain issues?
01 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Firmness in treasury yields but non AI sales projects face an elongated sales cycle. There are opportunities as the overall market broadens but defici...
Mojo and Stagflation
25 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Manufacturing mojo is coming back while pricing power to margin pressure is a weakness. Opportunities exist in credit while stagflation narratives pos...
We've identified that huge sucking sound
18 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Manufacturing might be finding a footing in the US while inflation remains a weakness. Cross-country divergences create opportunities while threat is ...
"...this is a time most reminiscent of 1998."
11 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The economy is strong and the market is pushing while the US dollar's potential is weakening. There's opportunity to slowly and proactively move money...
Rates and inflation remain sticky
04 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Markets don't do much in election years until the outcome is clear.
Virtuous cycle to vicious cycle?
26 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
This week's strengths are the news highs while Fed pushback continues and so does the rise in yields. There is opportunity in the virtuous cycle but c...
Kudos to the Fed's messaging
19 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Kudos to the Fed's messaging but hot inflation and cold spending is a threat. One man's garbage is another man's treasure (and opportunity) but watc...
My oh my. That AI!
12 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Trees are growing to the sky while interest rate exposed securities continue to lag. There are opportunities as bad breadth improves but uncertainty r...
Eyes on the Fed
05 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We're in a good place but there are still signs of stress with some regional banks. Simple opportunities exist by maintaining a balanced portfolio. Th...
Sticking the soft landing?
29 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Almost perfect economic data meets hypersensitive areas in the market. Even with a pullback, there are relative value opportunities while a breaking b...
Opportunity and Threats as equals?
22 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The economic damage has been contained but weakness appears while wrestling with the Fed's communication. Opportunity exists with the Fed NOT tanking ...
The 'AI Chaser'
15 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The mega map momentum runs into a small cap and earnings retreat. Broadening use of AI is an opportunity while persistent inflation and rise energy co...
Did the market get ahead of itself?
08 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The good jobs report might be solidifying the soft landing scenario but a cyclical strength isn't great. Do pullbacks equal opportunity? A threat coul...
2023 in review, 2024 straight ahead.
01 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Momentum continued but China and the Credit Crunch were a drag. Opportunity exists for active managers while the Fed being slow to react to deteriorat...
The Christmas Episode
25 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Santa Claus came for small caps but the dollar has been dashing downward. Stock pickers need to do some homework but will it be a blue Christmas for b...
The transition from pause to cut can be bumpy
18 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Interest rate sensitive assets are a strength while the Magnificent 7 might be going from magnificent to middling. There is opportunity in the catch-u...
Early resolution for 2024? Balance.
11 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The buy-the-dip-reflex seems to be strong while the slow slide into stagnation is a weakness. There's an opportunity to get back into balance but data...
Chipotle buy-now-pay-later?
04 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Besides learning why one of the members of the Investment Team uses buy-now-pay-later for Chipotle, there are plenty of other things to talk about. ...
Two PHDs walk into a podcast....
27 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Double PHD's on this episode. Good news IS good news but weak holiday guidance is an issue. Genuine growth is scarce, demands a premium, and is an opp...
Are we seeing end of the year FOMO?
20 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Santa's sleigh is being pulled by some Bulls --but risk reward is looking risky. Dumpster diving is back on the menu but the Fed is hurting the govern...
It's a cliche, but when do we NOT have volatility?
13 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Potential earnings improvement is a strength while mid and small cap stocks underperform. For opportunities; the '40' part of a 60/40 portfolio could ...
The Powell Pause and the power of lower expectations.
06 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
What the pause means for fixed income and equity markets is a strength while equity valuations remain a weakness. Expectations are low, that's an oppo...
Who's got bad breadth?
30 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Artificial intelligence is here and a definite strength Meanwhile, bad breadth pulls equity returns lower and is a weakness. Look to risk/reward for...
Time for a Powell pause?
23 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The consumer is like the Energizer Bunny...but bonds shouldn't be this nerve wracking. On the other side, if you can hold them, bonds might be an oppo...
A busy week for economic data. Plus, a threat to the munchies.
16 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Classic defensives did their work while the consumer might be starting to crack. Opportunity might exist by looking at what hasn't worked while the Fe...
Does Jawboning Still Work?
09 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
This week will yield plenty of data for experts to inspect. As inflation starts to diminish, Powell may have painted himself into a corner given some ...
A bit of a lost year for bonds
02 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Energy and employment are strengths while yield sensitive assets remain weak. There are opportunities via reasonable valuations and increased bond yie...
Quality. An often-used term, but what does it mean?
25 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
This quarter, defense has been the best defense. Weakness exists with yields up but everything else down. Opportunities exist to lock in rates and hed...
Too much worry over this week's Fed meeting?
18 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Defensive rotation is a strength while elevated mortgage rates pose a threat. There are opportunities in China and emerging markets but a floor under ...
China shows up twice
11 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strength in high yield while Chinese governance is a weakness. Opportunities exist when real dates go down but fiscal policy and Chinese bans post thr...
Potential pain for consumers?
04 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Government spending on infrastructure set to ramp up but potential pain ahead for consumers. While markets look to be turning up and it's time to get ...
The fear factor
28 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
New home sales and consumer confidence are strong, but the cost of funding is a weakness. Look for opportunity at the intersection of value and qualit...
The China contagion?
21 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Solid portfolio construction manages volatility while the problems with China's economy have the potential to spread wider. Opportunities exist via ac...
Consumer Sentiment Up, But Volatility Looms
14 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Both consumer and small business sentiment are up, but earnings volatility may contribute to an overall volatile future. Opportunities may lie in valu...
Deficits consistent with a recession, not an expansion
07 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Economic growth still supportive but concern over big debts and deficits. Short bonds and multinationals vs unanchoring of inflation expectations.
Parts of the consumer base are starting to suffer
31 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The economy continues to power ahead while the bond market is dealing with returns vs. expectations. Are there opportunities to add duration and withi...
Special Episode: Focus on agriculture and commodities.
24 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Jason Moss, Senior Marketing Consultant at Brock Associates, joins Todd Voit and Jason Cooper to discuss agriculture and commodities.
Where consumers are cutting back. What might that tell us?
17 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Better than expected inflation numbers meet a dollar in a downtrend. There might be opportunities to lock in longer term yields but poor regulations m...
Choose your own fiscal policy adventure.
10 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The economy is accelerating but monetary policy is tightening. There are opportunities in niche asset classes, but fiscal policy is setting up a choos...
Portfolio positioning in divergent markets
03 Jul 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Equities are strong, especially large cap growth. Watch for weakness in small to midsize banks with the potential of further rate hikes. There is an o...
How does the 3-day Russian 'mutiny' present opportunity?
26 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Global unemployment is the lowest in decades while US productivity plunges amidst rising wage rates. Options are cheap for those worried about current...
Is divergence about to snap shut like alligator jaws?
19 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
AI is leading to a broadening of the market while lending conditions have gotten tighter. Is there an opportunity in down capitalization names and wha...
Monday, June 12th. The consumer becomes the weakness.
12 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Diversification is not a buzzword--it's a strength. Meanwhile, consumer fragility emerges as a weakness while cash on the sidelines presents an opport...
Monday, June 5th. Rate hikes finally starting to work inside the economy.
05 Jun 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The US labor market continues to be strong while Chinese economic activity has been quite weak. Are there opportunities with weakness prices in? Are A...
Tuesday, May 30th. Focus on AI. Exuberance vs Truth?
30 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strength this week is the debt deal, but it also shows up as a weakness depending on Congressional reaction . As an opportunity, it's clear that AI am...
Monday, May 22nd. The magnitude of a potential correction could be sizable.
22 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The debt ceiling debate sits as both a strength and a threat this week. Weaker breadth and potential stickier inflation is a weakness while companies ...
Monday, May 15th. Blending weakness into opportunity.
15 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strength internationally but commodities continue to languish. Getting 'paid to wait' is an opportunity but inflation expectations remain a threat.
Monday, May 8th. 50th Episode Special w/guest Gibson Smith of Smith Capital Investors
08 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Blaine Disrud and Trevor Nargis welcome guest Gibson Smith of Smith Capital Investors for a 50th Episode special. Strengths include interest rates and...
Monday, May 1st. It's almost like we have two economies...
01 May 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Big tech earnings propel strength this week while market breadth leads the weakness. Yields and quality are an opportunity while the debt ceiling cont...
Monday, April 24th. Is the US Dollar losing its dominance?
24 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
China's recovery leads strengths while economic indicators are deteriorating. There are opportunities both overseas and in certain sectors while conti...
Monday, April 17th. Bank concern creates market fear and angst.
17 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Long duration asset strength and consumption weakness. Volatility presents an opportunity while threats emerge in the job market.
Monday, April 10th. Cash on the sidelines presents an opportunity.
10 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Does the market see sunnier days ahead? Watch for weakness with equity valuations as we head into weaker-than-expected earnings. Are we seeing the nex...
Monday, April 3rd. The pause and the pivot.
03 Apr 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strengths include the outperformance of the Nasdaq--and stocks in general. Weakness is the potential for falling market breadth along with stocks fall...
Monday, March 27. Markets and Fed playing chicken. Again.
27 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Long duration assets have done well but financial conditions are a weakness. An opportunity exists with the rally on the Fed pause but the impact of t...
Monday, March 20th. 'A weeding out of the weak'.
20 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Resilience in equity markets meets weakness in credit and commodities. There are opportunities in large banks while potential exists for contagion and...
Monday, March 13th. A BIG week meets the SVB factor
13 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
The continued strength of inflation, valuations continue to be high while the equity risk premium stays low. The decline in interest rates meets conti...
Monday, March 6th. Margin pressure--both a weakness and an opportunity.
06 Mar 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Business and consumers locked in low rates on their debt. The mortgage market remains tough. AI and its potential aid to productivity. And the Fed's g...
Monday, February 27th. A signal at the wrong time.
27 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Consumer strength continues to be a strength--but not what the Fed wants to see. Further rate hikes are a certainty and the market is pricing them in....
Monday, February 20th. It still pays to be defensive
20 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
US markets closed for President's Day--but we're still here talking about the economy and inflation. Might the market misplace inflation coming down? ...
Monday, February 13th. Financial conditions have eased...for now.
13 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Financial conditions have changed for now, but the inverted yield curve shows up twice: as a weakness and a threat. Fixed icome continues to be very a...
Monday, February 6. Labor numbers and January markets.
06 Feb 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Labor continues to be strong while the dollar rallies. Options create opportunities and the debt ceiling issue isn't going away.
Monday, January 30th. 2022's losers are the winners so far this year
30 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
It's Fed week. Strength: 2022's losers are the winners so far this year. Weakness: Consumer credit is expanding. Opportunity: many areas are looking s...
Monday, January 23rd. "Congress Fiddling With The Debt Ceiling While Our Deficit Burns"
23 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
More liquidity added to the system than you might have realized. The inverted yield curve continues to indicate a recession, but the markets may have ...
Monday, January 16th. "They're playing chicken with the Fed."
16 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strength: the breadth of the market has been outperforming. Weakness: the consumer going forward and sales volume coming down. Opportunity: internatio...
Monday, January 9th. Finding the floor.
09 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strength: market recovery vs. economic situation. Weakness: leading economic indicators showing signs of contraction. Opportunity: a gradual increase ...
Tuesday, January 3rd. 2022 review with a look ahead at '23.
03 Jan 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Strengths include the Fed's resolve to tame inflation. One weakness is diversification; it was a bad year for balanced investors. 2023 will bring oppo...
Tuesday, December 27th. Focus on the labor market.
27 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Anyone who wants a job can get one while economic growth is constrained by the labor market situation. Opportunities exist for companies that benefit ...
Monday, December 19th. Is the Fed winning the fight against inflation?
19 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Is the Fed winning the fight against inflation? The all-important consumer's resolve might be dwindling. Diversification opportunities might exist out...
Monday, December 12th. The difference between a 'correction' and a change in 'trend'.
12 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Accelerated GDP growth...for now. A crisis of sentiment. Future returns of fixed income. The economy deteriorating in a recession.
Monday, December 5th. What are inverted yield curves telling us?
05 Dec 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Emerging markets, the historically deep inversion in the yield curve--and is everyone copying each other's investment homework?
Monday, November 28th. The pause vs the pivot
28 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week: Strength in short duration and cash generating securities. Weakness in valuation and earning conditions for the S&P 500. Small cap oppo...
Monday, November 21st. Spending: good for now.....
21 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week: Market resilience, consumer spending, financial planning, and a still-hawkish Fed.
Monday, November 14th. Too early for market pricing assuming the end of a tightening cycle?
14 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
We're seeing a broad based rally tied to inflation that is declining faster than expected. The threat associated with the dollar's decline. Opportunit...
Monday, November 7th. China as a strength AND a threat?
07 Nov 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week's episode tackles how can China appears as both a strength and a weakness. Blaine Disrud and Jason Cooper discuss. Plus, the default risk ...
Monday, October 31st. Winter is coming.
31 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Active management flexes, continued year-long weakness, potential for additional cash, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 40 year low.
Monday, October 24th. Time for patience?
24 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Closer to the END of Fed tightening than the beginning, weakness in the economy on the way to '23, opportunities with attractive valuations emerging, ...
Monday, October 17th. Last week: Hot CPI. This week, key earnings.
17 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The peak inflation narrative, economic data likely getting worse, working around a bottom, and the potential for a leg lower in the markets. Blaine Di...
Monday, October 10th. No surprise, matching weaknesses and threats.
10 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Seasonality favors a market rally while economic growth deceleration is a weakness. Small caps present an opportunity while Fed tightening remains a t...
Monday, October 3rd. Hello, Q4. It's been an interesting year.
03 Oct 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Bond yields, the dollar's strength impact on earnings, valuation in the small cap space, and the Fed's hawkish stance.
Monday, September 26th. The opportunity for active management.
26 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Natural resources and the labor market, the strength of the dollar, emerging markets, and political instability sharpen the focus on the importance of...
Monday, September 19th. The Fed has more work to do.
19 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
While the consumer still spends, the yield curve inverts. Fixed income becomes more attractive while the Fed fights to reduce demand to combat inflati...
Monday, September 12th. Threats and weakness from Europe.
12 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The market is resilient, yet foreign oil could produce a European energy crisis.
Tuesday, September 6th. When the punchbowl is taken away too soon.
06 Sep 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Strong labor market, a hawkish Fed, small cap opportunities and quantitative easing.
Monday, August 29th.
29 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Current low unemployment meets potentially fewer job openings.
Monday, August 22nd.
22 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Blaine Disrud and Trevor Nargis dig in with a special focus on fixed income; current debt structures, inversion of the yield curve, and positive real ...
Monday, August 15th.
15 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
For the first time in weeks, inflows are higher, indicating some investors are optimistic about the future. Is this trend based on history, data, or e...
Monday, August 8th.
08 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The labor market, slowing growth, mega cap tech, and the Fed reversing course too soon.
Monday, August 1st.
01 Aug 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Are we in a recession? Trevor Nargis and Blaine Disrud discuss the labor market, slowing economic activity, cash on the sidelines, and recessionary co...
Monday, July 25th.
25 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
BIG week of earnings. Price action, the labor market, pessimism, and a U-shaped recovery. Ahead of a huge week of earnings, members of the Investment ...
Monday, July 18th.
18 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Today's episode focuses on housing: values, lending, homebuilder outlook, and affordability.
Monday, July 11th.
11 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
This week, a SWOT analysis of value and growth stocks in light of the first half of the year.
Tuesday, July 5th.
05 Jul 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Off for the 4th, Trevor Nargis and Blaine Disrud join us for a 2nd-half-of-the-year SWOT podcast.
Monday, June 27th.
27 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
Is a recession priced in? Cash on the balance sheet, earnings estimates, a recession priced-in and interest rates. Todd Voit, Trevor Nargis, and Blain...
Monday, June 20th.
20 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
The market as a barometer.
Monday, June 6th.
06 Jun 2022
Contributed by Lukas
A hawkish Fed?