The Athletic NBA Daily
Western Conference playoff race + Most Improved Player award
Tue, 08 Apr 2025
With 6 days remaining the NBA regular season, the 2 through 8 seeds are all still up for grabs. Dave DuFour and RealGM’s Wes Goldberg breakdown the western conference playoff seeding race, discuss the field, and why the Clippers need to avoid the play-in. Then, Dave and Wes breakdown the defensive player of the year race, discuss Amen Thompson’s case, and why Tyler Herro should win most improved.Host: Dave DuFourWith: Wes GoldbergExecutive Producer: Andrew SchlechtAudio Producer: Grayson Moody Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Chapter 1: What teams need to avoid the play-in in the Western Conference?
Good morning and welcome to the NBA Daily. Coming up, Wes Goldberg from Real GM Radio is here. We're going to talk about the teams that need to avoid the play-in the most out West and his opinion on Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved. Good morning, everybody. Good morning, Wes. Welcome to the show.
Wes Goldberg, if you guys don't know, he is the host of Real GM Radio and also Locked on Heat. So he's one of my Miami Heat guys when I when I need some info. But we're talking big picture NBA stuff. National Championship game was last night. What a game. What a game. That's right. Yeah. Excited to see how it turns out. Yeah, we're recording this before the game, full disclosure.
But Wes, you know, looking at the playoff race out West and it is objectively a mess right now. Basically, the way the play in is set up. With the seven and eight seeds right now, we have a possibility of the Lakers, the Nuggets, the Clippers, the Warriors, the Wolves, or the Grizzlies being the seven or eight seed right now as of this recording.
Chapter 2: How chaotic is the playoff race in the West?
This is one of the more chaotic playoff races since the introduction of the play-in. How do you feel about the play-in and its effect on the playoffs? Do you have an opinion on that?
Chapter 3: What are the opinions on the play-in tournament?
So when it first was introduced, I was anti-playing because I mostly don't like new things and things that generally add more stuff to an already packed NBA schedule. And then I really liked the play-in because it ended up being really exciting. And then I'm looking at the Eastern Conference this year. I'm like, are we sure we need to play in here?
We kind of know the teams that should be in the playoffs. But in this case, this is pretty interesting. My only fix to the play-in would be like, do we really need the 9-10 teams in here? Maybe just one game for the seven, eight seeds to figure it out, battle it out and then go that way. But in general, yeah, I think the play in is fine. It works.
And we're in for a really exciting finish here because I don't like you said, this is madness. I don't remember the last time the standings were just like this bananas with four or five games left in the season. And it's every single day. It's standings watching in the Western Conference now.
Right. And so the right now, the Rockets look like they're the worst they can do is the three seed. You know, they had a big win over the Warriors, and that's going to actually keep the Warriors from having a chance to make all the way to the two seed, which they still had a chance for had they beaten the Rockets in the game on on Sunday. But after that, I mean, it's kind of chaotic.
You've got the Lakers who had the huge win over Oklahoma City. They're, of course, going to play Oklahoma City again tonight, which could could be big for them because they're still, you know, trying to fight for that three seed and to keep the Nuggets back. The Nuggets have lost four straight games. As we're recording, the Clippers right behind them have won four straight.
And obviously the Warriors have just been a different team since they got Jimmy Butler. Now 21-3 with him on the team. Minnesota has played around with this play-in range pretty much all season. It seems like they'll win three or four games, then they'll struggle for three or four games. And then the Grizzlies have just fallen off a cliff, obviously, most recently changing head coaches.
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Chapter 4: Which team needs to avoid the play-in the most?
in that group you know wes like what team just pops out to you first as a team that definitely just they need to avoid the play-in whether it's a rest that they need or or just you worry about them in a single elimination situation
Well, my first thought is Warriors Lakers, just because of their aging stars, don't play as many games, especially when you think about the Warriors. They've got Jimmy Butler. Jimmy Butler got injured in the playing tournament last year when he was playing for the Miami Heat and then wasn't available for them in the first round against Boston. So age, whatever.
But then I'm like, well, anybody can get injured. It's, you know, stuff happens all the time. I'm looking at the Clippers, Dave. I'm really looking at the Clippers here. They have not beaten the Thunder or the Rockets this season. So if they're in the play-in and they make it out of the play-in, well, they're going to have to probably play one of the Rockets or the Thunder in that first round.
And like I said, they haven't beaten those guys yet. Now, they do play Houston on Wednesday night. Maybe that's something that could be informational for us. But they're a team that actually has...
some pretty good matchup stuff depending on where they might end up in the bracket like they have beaten golden state right they uh they match up really well with denver so if they end up in a first round series against those teams they probably feel a lot better about their chances against them than they would against a couple of teams that they have yet to beat all season long so i look at the clippers as the team that really needs to avoid the play-in probably more than any of these other teams
Not to say the regular season is everything, but yeah, those matchups are tough for them, right?
Yeah, I mean, it is good, though, that they're playing some of their best basketball right now. I think they're likely to avoid it. You know, we had Kawhi Leonard. He was the Western Conference Player of the Month last month. I mean, they're kind of peaking at the right time. It seems like the chemistry is great for them. So I expect them to avoid it.
Um, what about like, how do you feel about the Grizzlies winning a game? I see to me, I look at them, I've seen them as a first round out all year. I thought that they were kind of a paper, a paper regular season team. And I think that the team probably agreed with me. Um, I don't know, man, one game, it feels like, yeah, they could win.
Like jock could go off, but with the way that defense is just falling off a cliff, I just, I don't know. I think that if they're not, you know, the six-seater above, it's just they're going on vacation.
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Chapter 5: Can the Grizzlies win a game in the playoffs?
yeah and i mean i think when you've got a guy like mpj that they need to have if in one game he has to have a good game and he has been incredibly inconsistent the last couple months I would be very concerned. You know, again, the Jamal Murray injury. We've highlighted just them trying to close games with Russell Westbrook can sometimes be a disaster. So you get into a situation like that.
You just don't have any wiggle room. Where would you. So are you saying Clippers? That's it. Clippers have to avoid the play. And that's that's your your your bet right there.
That's kind of where I'm at, just because even if they do make it out of the play-in, it just feels like they would be dead in the water in a first round. It's just a tough matchup for them, and they've proven that in the regular season.
But then on the flip side, if they can get into that 4-5 range, well, now all of a sudden you're looking at a matchup that could be beneficial for them, and now maybe we're talking about a team that could... make it out of the first round of the Western Conference. And then once you're there and you see how the bracket works, who knows?
Maybe that's a team that can make it all the way to the conference finals. And Kawhi Leonard's been playing like that guy. James Harden, we know his playoff words, but he's not that guy anymore for this team as long as Kawhi is healthy. And then obviously you save a week and you mitigate the risk of Kawhi aggravating something in another week there too.
So yeah, my answer is the Clippers, probably just because it feels like... It could either be over before it even begins, or this is a team that we could be looking in a month from now or a couple months from now and be like, wow, that team made a run to the Western Conference Finals that we didn't expect.
Yeah, the seeding may affect them more than than any other team. I actually I like that take quite a bit. I think that they can win one game because they have Kawhi. But I do think if they can get to that four or five seed or four seed, that it is a hugely beneficial for them to get through to the finals. Stick around, guys.
After the break, we're going to talk about defensive player of the year and most improved. And I believe we're going to talk about another Clipper because Avicii Zubac has been pretty good. As it is probably been very apparent, it is award season in the NBA ecosphere.
Draymond Green has gone on a single man self campaign for defense player of the year, and he has somehow swung the betting odds way in his favor. Wes, has he swung you over into his camp? Are you are you pro Draymond for defense player of the year this year?
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Chapter 6: What are the chances of Denver escaping the play-in?
I'm not. And that's not even a thing against Draymond. I think he's been sensational and he's had really big games and really big moments in on like a national stage, right? We, what he did against the honest a couple of weeks ago was just classic Draymond green defensive masterclass. He had those stops against the Lakers a couple of nights ago that were huge, obviously down the stretch.
And he's awesome. Like Draymond green is awesome. And the fact that he only has one defensive player of the year award for his career is It's kind of a crime. So if he were to get it again this year, I wouldn't be upset about it.
But I also don't think that he was wire to wire to the best defender in the league this season, despite everything that he's been saying and the campaign that he's had the best campaign out of anybody in terms of just being out there. I agree. But yeah, I don't think he's been the best defender wire to wire.
So who's it been for you then? I mean, look, Victor Wiminyama had the award locked up. Like, we know that. Just the way that he has completely changed the geometry of the court for opposing teams. We know that. Jaron Jackson, I thought, was the frontrunner to take a spot. Obviously, the big injury took him out.
Evan Mobley sort of petered out as far as being the guy who was right behind Jaron Jackson. It seems like his case kind of has gone up in smoke. Who's your guy?
So I'm between two guys, but before I tell you who it is, can we talk a little bit about Ahmed Thompson making a late push for this thing? I would love to talk about it.
Yeah, let's do it.
What he did against Steph Curry and the Warriors on Sunday night, it has me at least rethinking my whole defensive player of the year thing. And then I look at the different sports books this morning, Dave, and he's not even listed on these things in terms of odds. And I'm like, look, I don't know if he would be my favorite. He's probably not right now.
but he would, he would be on my ballot and did not even have him mentioned in this conversation. I mean, Shady Eldridge's Alexander has better odds than Ahmed Thompson does. That seems weird. So he's one of those guys who, when I think about defensive player of the year,
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Chapter 7: Who is the frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year?
And then the other thing is when you talk to players around the league, you ask them, who's the one guy you don't want defending you? They all say Lou Dort. They all say Lou Dort.
Nobody wants to play this guy. The numbers back it up. Yeah. Yeah, 100 percent. I mean, when you look at what the opposing stars, you know, the numbers they put up against the Thunder, there is a Dort depression in those numbers. You know, definitely the numbers are in the red, let's say, for opposing star players. Most improved. Now, this is somewhat controversial award because it winds up.
that it's going to go to somebody like Cade Cunningham. But this isn't to say that Cade Cunningham isn't a much better player right now than he was this time a year ago, because I happen to think that he has just taken a massive leap this season in a lot of ways, not just winning games, but also the way that he's winning games and finishing games. But he is like the frontrunner for this award.
And to me, that... Kind of breaks the spirit of what most improved should be about. I think that when you're that highly touted as a prospect, man, isn't this sort of the expectation? It is.
And there should be a rule. I don't know what it is. I'm usually anti rules, but can we stop voting these guys? Right. That are top five picks like, oh, wow, it's crazy that this guy got good. Right. You know, I've seen it labeled as like the MVP Junior Award. It shouldn't be that, right?
And as soon as John Morant mailed his most improved award to Desmond Bain, we should have realized in that moment, oh, we're doing this all wrong. So I don't even ever really consider a top 10 pick unless it's like a weird...
like a case where the guy never looked like a top 10 pick and then all of a sudden did but I just yeah if you're one of the top players in the draft you're the whole thing was that you're supposed to get better and be good so I don't I don't think John Moran should have ever won it and I certainly don't think Cade should win it it's nothing to do with Cade or and Evan Mobley like another guy who would have a case but I'm like dude these guys are good they're supposed to be good I'm not voting for them it kind of goes against the spirit of the award
So where's the bar set for you? I mean, you don't necessarily have to make a choice here, but like, what's your field? You know, like when you're saying, here's my, you know, such and such is in the conversation. Who are your guys? Like you got a handful.
I do. I think about like a guy like Avicii Zubac, who has, it's been steady improvement his entire career, but has legitimately been one of the best five centers in the league this year. I mean, it is, he's an elite center. I think he's been awesome. I think Austin Reeves has also taken a leap. I think we have, you can't ignore that. Christian Brown,
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