The Bayesian Conspiracy
Episodes
257 – Pentagon Comes For Claude
01 Mar 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Ame...
256 – Writing for LLMs
18 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMs LINKS Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI GwernR...
255 – Eneasz goes to CFAR, and Epistemically Honest Reassurance
04 Feb 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest Reassurance LINKS CFAR’s home page Upcoming...
254 – The True Theme and Meaning of HPMOR
21 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods ...
253 – The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists
07 Jan 2026
Contributed by Lukas
Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices. LINKS The Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version) Lightcone ...
A Harried Meeting (audio)
31 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A short story by Ben Pace. Original can be found here. Donate to the fundraiser here! Harry sings karaoke here. Happy New Year.
House elves are crystalized cosmic power
25 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
A short story by Prerat. Original can be found here. Merry Xmas!
Christmas 2025: Couple of Quick Shoutouts
24 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Hello and happy holiday season to you all! Eneasz is back and we’re here to say hi and give a shoutout to Skyler’s awesome annual LessWron...
252 – The 12 Virtues of Rationality, with Alex and David
10 Dec 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Join me as I sit down with Alex and David, both previous guests on the show and both cofounders of the Guild of the Rose. Together, we go over the cor...
251 – Matt Freeman on What Makes a Good Story
26 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Matt Freeman has been cohosting several media analysis podcasts for over a decade. He and his cohost Scott have been doing weekly episodes of the Doof...
Bayes Blast 46 – Get Involved in Local Politics with Booker Lightman
22 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Booker is a long-time attendee and one of the coordinators of the Denver area Less Wrong community. Community engagement isn’t just a background tas...
250 – Making the Good Life with Matt Freeman
12 Nov 2025
Contributed by Lukas
While Eneasz is busy at InkHaven, Steven sits down with Matt Freeman to talk about not-AI stuff! We had (in my opinion) a great conversation about sto...
249 – Red Heart and IABIED with Max Harms
29 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Max Harms on the air for the first time since 2017! He’s got a new book coming out (pre-order your copy here or at Amazon) and we spend...
248 – Seeking Alpha, with Jay
15 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jay talks with us about finding Alpha – returns above the base rate – in every day life (and what this means). LINKS Optimize Everything, Jay’s ...
247 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 2
01 Oct 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We continue discussing Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. If God imagines Claude hard enough, does Claude beco...
246 – The Void, with Matt Freeman, part 1
17 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We discuss Nostalgebraist’s “The Void” in the context of how to relate to LLMs. “When you talk to ChatGPT, who or what are you talking to?” ...
pre246 note
17 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Audio reading of The Void, from AskWho
245 – AI Welfare, with Rob Long and Rosie Campbell of Eleos
03 Sep 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Do we need to be concerned for the welfare of AIs today? What about the near future? Eleos AI Research is asking exactly that. LINKS Eleos AI Research...
244 – How and Why to Form a Church, with Andrew Willsen
20 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Andrew Willsen tells us how incorporating as a church allows you to navigate modernity, and gives us the basic steps to doing so. LINKS Andrew’s chu...
Bayes Blast 45 – Bees Blast
14 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Is a bee worth 1/7th of a human? Can a bee suffer at all? Nathan joins us to discuss what neural structures are needed for this question to make sense...
243 – Wes Is Not The Monogamy Police, with Wesly Fenza and Jennifer Kesteloot
06 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Wes defends his post I Am Not the Monogamy Police, while Jennifer asserts it’s about more than monogamy. LINKS Wes’s post I Am Not the Monogamy Po...
Bayes Blast 44 – Play-By-Post Storytelling
04 Aug 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Olivia from the Guild of the Rose is back to tell us about the noble and most ancient tradition of play-by-post storytelling. (Spoiler, it’s the pre...
242 – TracingWoodgrains, live at Manifest 2025
23 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz sits down with Tracing Woodgrains before a live audience at Manifest 2025 for a wide range of topics. Then we follow up some more afterwards. L...
Bayes Blast 43 – Die-ing to Intuit Bayes’ Theorem
22 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Olivia is a member of the Guild of the Rose and a total badass. Enjoy the intuitive and fun lesson in Bayesian reasoning she shared with me at VibeCam...
Bonus – AI Village Hosts An Event For Humans
11 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Four AIs recruited a human to host a story-telling event in Dolores Park. Larissa Schiavo is this human. She tells of her interaction with the AIs, th...
241 – Doom Debates, with Liron Shapira
09 Jul 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Liron Shapira debates AI luminaries and public intellectuals on the imminent possibility of human extinction. Let’s get on the P(Doom) Train. LINKS ...
240 – How To Live Well With High P(Doom) – with Ben Pace, Brandon Hendrickson, Miranda Dixon-Luinenburg
25 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Many of us have a high P(Doom) — a belief new AI tools could cause human extinction in the very near future. How can one live a good life in the fac...
Bayes Blast 42 – Epic AI Music
14 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
David Youssef used Claude and Suno to make some truly awesome music. He tells us how he did it and some of his favorite lyrics. Check out the lyrics t...
239 – SymbyAI
11 Jun 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Steven works at SymbyAI, a startup that’s bringing AI into research review and replication. We talk with founder Ashia Livaudais about improving how...
238 – Part 2 of How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian
28 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Eneasz can’t get over the abandonment of epistemics. 🙁...
237 – How A Rationalist Becomes A Christian
14 May 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We speak with a long-time Denver rationalist who’s converting to Christianity about why. Part one, it turns out. LINKS Thomas Ambrose on Twitter The...
236 – Twilight of the Edgelords with Liam Nolan
30 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz and Liam discuss Scott Alexander’s post “Twilight of the Edgelords,” an exploration of Truth, Morality, and how one balances love of trut...
235 – Gender Differences, with Wes and Jen
16 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Wes Fenza and Jen Kesteloot join us to talk about whether there’s significant personality differences between men and women, and what (if anything) ...
234 – GiveDirectly, with Nick Allardice
02 Apr 2025
Contributed by Lukas
We speak to Nick Allardice, President & CEO of GiveDirectly. Afterwards Steven and Eneasz get wrapped up talking about community altruism for a bit. L...
233 – AI Policy in D.C., with Dave Kasten
19 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Dave Kasten joins us to discuss how AI is being discussed in the US government and gives a rather inspiring and hopeful take. LINKS Narrow Path Center...
Bayes Blast 41 – AI Action Plan
08 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
The White House wants to hear from you regarding what it should do about AI safety. Now’s your chance to spend a few minutes to make someone read yo...
232 – The Milton Friedman Theory of Change, with John Bennett
05 Mar 2025
Contributed by Lukas
John Bennett discusses Milton Friedman‘s model of policy change. LINKS The Milton Friedman Model of Policy Change John Bennett’s LinkedIn Friedman...
Bayes Blast 40 – HPMOR 10 Year Anniversary Parties
21 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Want to run an HPMOR Anniversary Party, or get notified if one’s happening near you? Fill this out!
Bayes Blast 39 – Ladylike for Autistics
05 Feb 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz tells Jen about Sympathetic Opposition’s How and Why to be Ladylike (For Women with Autism), and the podcast takes a 1-episode break
230 – Making Dating Not Suck with Jacob Falkovich
22 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Jacob Falkovich on finding a good match and selfless dating LINKS SecondPerson.Dating – why dating sucks and how you will unsuck it Jacob’s post o...
Bayes Blast 38 – Shitcoins
21 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
How shitcoins work, plus the Dumb Money movie about the GameStop squeeze.
Bayes Blast 37 – Kill Your Friend’s Cat
13 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Why you definitely should kill your friend’s cat if you promised to kill your friend’s cat. (+Q&A) This is a lightning talk given at the Rationali...
229 – Integrating Emotions
08 Jan 2025
Contributed by Lukas
Eric discusses integrating our emotions via observation and adjustment. His free course is at EnjoyExisting.org or email him – [email protected] ...
LW Census 2024
28 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
If you haven’t yet, go fill out the 2024 LW Census. Right here.
228 – The Deep Lore of LightHaven, with Oliver Habryka
24 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Oliver tells us how Less Wrong instantiated itself into physical reality, along with a bit of deep lore of foundational Rationalist/EA orgs. Donate to...
227 – Longevity, Aimed Communities, Network States, with Zoe Isabel Senon
11 Dec 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We talk to Zoe Isabel Senon about longevity, recent advances, longevity popup cities & group houses, and more (not necessarily in that order). Spoiler...
226 – The Illusion of Moral Decline
29 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We discuss Adam Mastroianni’s “The Illusion of Moral Decline” LINKS The Illusion of Moral Decline Touchat Wearable Blanket Hoodie Lighthaven –...
225 – Live at Lighthaven!
14 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Enjoy the public conversations we had the pleasure of having at our live show at Lighthaven in Berkeley. Special thanks to Andrew, Matt, J, Ben and Ga...
Bonus? The 10-Finger Demon
10 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A hypothetical about a finger-collecting demon throws Eneasz for a major loop.
Live Show At Lighthaven
08 Nov 2024
Contributed by Lukas
If you’re near Berkeley on 11/13/24 at 4pm, come see us! Address and info at this link. We’ll take a few questions from email at bayesianconspirac...
224 – Cringe Gates and Cultural Drift
30 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We discuss Eneasz’s Shrimp Welfare Watches The EA Gates, briefly touch on Hanson’s Cultural Drift, and tackle a lot of follow-ups and feedback. LI...
Bayes Blast 36 – AI Grifters in Birmingham
23 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AskWho just attended a “lecture” by AI Grifter Tania Duarte Slide The “TESCREAL” Bungle by Ozy Brennan AskWho Casts AI podcast
223 – Going Back to the Classics
14 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Classic, season one adventure this week! Eneasz and Steven have a loosely structured conversation about the sequences’ value, the virtue of silence,...
Bonus – Discord Culture (preview)
14 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz chats with TBC Discord member Delta about the cultivation of small online cultures. Get the full episode via our Patreon or our SubStack!
Bayes Blast 35 – Disproving The Blindsight Thesis
13 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
GPT-o1 demonstrates the Blindsight thesis is likely wrong. Peter Watts on Blindsight Andrew Cutler on origins of consciousness part 1 and part 2 Thou ...
Bayes Blast 34 – Content Moderation is Infosec
06 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Steven wanted to share an interesting idea from an article that draws a neat parallel between content moderation and information security. The post di...
222 – Consciousness As Recursive Reflections with Daniel Böttger
02 Oct 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Daniel about his ACX guest post that posits that thoughts are conscious, rather than brains. LINKS Consciousness As Recursive Reflections...
Bayes Blast 33 – Porn Sims
27 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Can we achieve our true potential? based on – Interview Day At Thiel Capital also mentioned: Meetups Everywhere 2024 Are You Jesus or Hitler
221 – Why The Field? Why Zombies?? with Liam
18 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Eneasz tries to understand why someone would posit a Chalmers Field, and brings up the horrifying implications. LINKS Zombies! Zombies? 2 Rash 2 Unadv...
Bayes Blast 32 – Canadian Health Care
16 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A surprising update for two previously maple-pilled Yanks
220 – Chalmer’s Zombies, with Liam
04 Sep 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We dig into the classic LW post Zombies! Zombies? and talk a lot of philosophy with Liam from the 2 Rash 2 Unadvised podcast. I (Steven) spent a bunch...
219 – On Excellence, with Tracing Woodgrains
21 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Inspired by Trace’s speech about excellence at VibeCamp 3, Eneasz and Steven speak to Tracing Woodgrains about Excellence and its various aspects LI...
218 – Bentham’s Bulldog and the Best Argument for God
07 Aug 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Spurred by comments from a couple of episodes ago, we wanted to make sure we didn’t misrepresent Matthew’s position and he agreed to come lay it o...
217 – Consensual Violence with Rikard
24 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Rikard joins us to speak about the benefits of consensual violence LINKS Rikard’s Substack – Drunken Masterpieces Rikard is @rikardhjort Twitter D...
216 – On Dying (And Cryonics)
10 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Rachel Zuber joins us to talk about hospice work, dying in America, and why she’s less optimistic about cryonics now. LINKS All the Living and the D...
Bayes Blast 31 – Blowing Hot Air (Free Version)
08 Jul 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Brandon comes back to explain how wind works. Steven and Brandon are not the two you want if you want to quickly get to the point so this went on for ...
215 – Rationalism and Religion, with Brandon Hendrickson
26 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Brandon Hendrickson takes over the podcast! He interrogates Eneasz about his past, and this crazy rationalist religion idea, and introduces a vast kno...
214 – Is Death Good? Simone and Malcolm Collins return!
12 Jun 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The Collinses are back to address follow-up questions, like why is death good? Does population density reduce fertility? Is demographic collapse still...
213 – Are Transformer Models Aligned By Default?
29 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Our species has begun to scrute the inscrutable shoggoth! With Matt Freeman 🙂 LINKS Anthropic’s latest AI Safety research paper, on interpretabil...
212 – Feedback Extravaganza
15 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
A bit of a change of pace this episode. Eneasz and Steven catch up on some feedback we’ve had piling up for the last several weeks. Always feel free...
Bayes Blast 30 – Less.Online
04 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Less.Online gathers rationalist writers (and readers) for a major event in Berkeley May 31 – June 2nd. Eneasz will be there! Ben Pace and Raymond Ar...
211 – The Social Justice Religion with Tracing Woodgrains
01 May 2024
Contributed by Lukas
“Social justice progressivism (SJP) is the first time most people—including most Christians—have encountered a truly vital religion,” argues T...
210 – Demographic Collapse & Religion with Simone & Malcolm Collins
17 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We speak with Simone and Malcolm from Based Camp and Pronatalist.org. World population is a few decades from collapse if trends continue. Is this bad,...
Bayes Blast 29 – VibeClipse
15 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Steven and Eneasz regale each other and you with our stories, experiences, and takeaways from VibeClipse. The video Eneasz mentioned with him and espe...
Bayes Blast 28 – Bass Blast
08 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Yassine tells us what’s wrong with DJs and reveals their ancient mystical secrets. His post, DJ At Law Watch DJ-crush Tinzo spinning her craft
209 – The World’s Most Wholesome Gangbang, with Lucy Belmont (Fluffer B)
03 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We speak to Lucy Belmont, Fluffer B from Aella’s Birthday Gangbang. Guys, this is the most wholesome and fantastic thing we’ve ever heard, for rea...
Bayes Blast 27 – SubStack Launch and Animorphs Launch
01 Apr 2024
Contributed by Lukas
You can now subscribe to us on SubStack. You can hear the Rational!Animorphs fanfic (and Luminosity) at AskWho’s channel
208.ai – Eve Theory of Consciousness v3.0 – By Andrew Cutler
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The full audio of the article we discuss. Many thanks to AskWho for creating it! It can also be found at https://askwhocastsai.substack.com/p/eve-theo...
208 – Snakes On A Brain: Eve Theory of Consciousness v3 with Andrew Cutler
20 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Andrew Cutler about how pre-modern women spread consciousness through our species via a snake cult. This is a follow up to episode 205, w...
Bayes Blast 26 – AskWho On The Future of Narration
11 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
The future is now and it’s getting closer by the minute. Everyone check out AskWho’s Patreon and donate if you’re able to. 11Labs is the main to...
207 – Raising Free Range Kids via Camp Dorkaround
06 Mar 2024
Contributed by Lukas
To raise successful adults, children must experience the ability to act in the real world. Jennifer gives practical advice on how to do exactly that i...
206 – What Chronic Pain and Trauma Junkies Have In Common
21 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Steven explains the Mind-Body Vicious Cycle of chronic pain to Eneasz, and Eneasz opines on feedback cycles in psychological trauma. Main: The “mind...
Bayes Blast 25 – Betting On Love
13 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Where we marvel at the unparalleled game of our man Phil. Watch Bet On Love, starts at 17 minutes. Dating show portion starts at 24 minutes. The Death...
Bayes Blast 24 – The Answerers
12 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Lets teach our gods ancient Sumerian only The case for training frontier AIs on Sumerian-only corpus Our previous Snake Cult of Consciousness episode ...
205.ai – The Snake Cult of Consciousness narration
07 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
AskWho from the TBC Discord kindly provided full audio narration of Andrew Cutler’s original post! This is taken directly from AskWho’s substack. ...
205 – The Snake Cult of Consciousness
07 Feb 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We discuss the idea that human consciousness may have literally been kick-started by a ritual developed by a snake cult, which is surprisingly plausib...
204 – Simulacra Levels with Zvi (and more)
24 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
We speak with Zvi Mowshowitz about his work and recent history, what happened at OpenAI, and then really dig into Simulacra Levels – a way to catego...
203 – The Self-Indulgent Episode
10 Jan 2024
Contributed by Lukas
Steven and Eneasz just chat a whole lot about random things, and take some listener mail. Topics include: Rationality Quotes, Polyamory, Bostrom, Just...
202 – The Center for AI Policy talks government regulation
13 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Can we do anything to approach the creation of an artificial super intelligence more cautiously and methodically? Jason Green-Lowe and Jakub Kraus of ...
Bayes Blast 23 – Less Fingers = Less Blasting?
01 Dec 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Are there other ways to disincentivize attempted murder? Related Episodes: 196 and 198 and BB22
Bayes Blast 22 – The Penal System
30 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
You thought the title was a penis joke? For shame. Steven updates Eneasz on the outcome of the trial he served jury duty on in August. Related Episode...
201 – The Educated Mind + More with Brandon Hendrickson (part 2)
29 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We talk more with Brandon Hendrickson about his ACX-contest winning book review of The Educated Mind by Kieran Egan. Also discussions of rationality, ...
200 – The Educated Mind with Brandon Hendrickson
15 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Brandon Hendrickson about his ACX-contest winning book review of The Educated Mind by Kieran Egan. “A novel theory about why schools, ...
199 – Polyamory with Aella and Yassine
01 Nov 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We are talking poly again, with Aella and Yassine. NOTE – LINKS Why Your Polyamorous Friend’s Relationship Sucks by Aella The Amory Spectrum by Ae...
198 – Tuskegee & Age/Race Bias?
19 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Two smaller episodes dropped as one – The History of the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, and Reflections on Steven’s Jury Experience LINKS We Tuskeg...
197 – What To Expect When You’re Expecting To Go To Burning Man
04 Oct 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Charlie and Alex about going to Burning Man to help prep Steven to maybe go next year LINKS You Will Be Miserable, And It Will Set You Fr...
Bayes Blast 21 – Dudes Catching Son of Sam and Dread Pirate Roberts
23 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
How non-expert dudes caught bad dudes.
196 – Steven Goes To Court
20 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Steven achieved his dream of serving on a jury. Our local lawyer Justin returns to score him on rational jurying. 0:00:23 – All Rise 1:51:30 – Les...
195 – KataGo vs AlphaGo: Fight!
06 Sep 2023
Contributed by Lukas
Matt’s back which means we have some more AI stuff to talk about! KataGo was built as an adversary to AlphaGo and can beat it 94% of the time using ...
194 – Kinky Data Science with Aella
23 Aug 2023
Contributed by Lukas
We talk with Aella about some of the results of her absolutely massive sex & kink survey LINKS Aella’s Substack Aella’s Twitter You don’t need a...