The Q1 GDP statistics come in, and they're not good; Kamala Harris makes her grand reappearance; and we are joined by the Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee. Click here to join the member-exclusive portion of my show: https://bit.ly/3WDjgHE Ep.2190 - - - Facts Don’t Care About Your Feelings - - - DailyWire+: Join us at https://dailywire.com/subscribe and become part of the rebellion against the ridiculous. Normal is back. And this time, we’re keeping it. The hit podcast, Morning Wire, is now on Video! Watch Now and subscribe to their YouTube channel: https://bit.ly/3RFOVo6 Get your Ben Shapiro merch here: https://bit.ly/3TAu2cw - - - Today's Sponsors: Perplexity is an AI-powered answer engine that searches the internet to deliver fast, unbiased, high-quality answers, with sources and in-line citations. Ask Perplexity anything here: https://pplx.ai/benshapiro PureTalk - Switch to PureTalk and start saving today! Visit https://PureTalk.com/SHAPIRO Grand Canyon University - Find your purpose at Grand Canyon University. Visit https://gcu.edu today. Boll & Branch - Get 15% off, plus free shipping on your first set of sheets at https://BollAndBranch.com/ben American Investment Council - Learn more about the American Investment Council and private equity at https://investmentcouncil.org - - - Socials: Follow on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3cXUn53 Follow on Instagram: https://bit.ly/3QtuibJ Follow on Facebook: https://bit.ly/3TTirqd Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3RPyBiB
Chapter 1: What is the biggest economic danger facing the Trump administration?
All right, so yesterday, the U.S. economic report came in. Q1, GDP is down. The biggest danger to the Trump administration and their agenda is very clearly an economic downturn. By far, it's not particularly close. I've been saying this now for months.
If there were to be an economic downturn under President Trump, the rest of the very important agenda items that he is pursuing, everything from illegal immigration to wiping DEI out of the federal government, everything from rebuilding the United States military to Doge, all of it goes out the window if the economy falls because the way the American people think about politics is quite simple.
when it comes to presidents and the economy. If the economy is good, the president gets the credit. If the economy is bad, the president gets the blame. It is really that simple. Well, yesterday, the GDP report came in and it showed negative GDP growth. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is typically termed a recession. in sort of technical terms.
Now, obviously, Americans are feeling very skittish about the economy in general right now. And feelings, unfortunately, don't care about your facts when it comes to the economy very often. Sometimes people feel worse about the economy than it actually is. Sometimes they feel better about the economy than it actually is.
But all of those feelings tend to make themselves actually heard in the economic statistics eventually because people are buying and selling and doing all of these things based on what they feel their own personal financial status is. According to the Wall Street Journal, The U.S.
economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration's tariffs and consumer spending slowed. The Commerce Department said U.S. GDP fell at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. Consumer spending did increase at 1.8%.
That is the smallest increase since mid-2023. Spending by the federal government fell, but the main driver of the first quarter contraction was... Wait for it. The tariff war. Of course, of course. It turns out everyone has been on the edge of their seats. It's a roller coaster, this tariff war, at best. Investors have pulled their money out.
If in fact they are spending, they are attempting to beat the tariffs to the table. They're essentially buying things, stocking up on imports before the tariffs hit. Net exports, the difference between what the United States imports and exports, subtracted nearly five percentage points from headline GDP. This was the biggest quarterly drag from net exports on record, dating back to 1947.
So basically, imports actually radically increased because everybody was trying to get in under the wire before all the tariffs kicked in. Imports subtract from the Commerce Department's calculation of GDP because they represent the spending on foreign-made goods and services. So does this mean the economy is weak? It doesn't. The economy is not, in fact, weak.
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Chapter 2: How is the Trump administration's tariff war affecting the economy?
Because of lack of faith in the American economy, de-dollarization continues. This is foreign economies moving away from investment in the American dollar. According to Axios, the U.S. dollar index in Trump's first 100 days fell 9.5% compared to a 2.1% drop in the first 100 days of his term.
The value of the greenback increased by 4.5% in George W. Bush's first 100 days when the country was headed into recession and rose slightly for both Obama and Biden. So as recession fears rise, investors are actually moving away from the dollar. There's just less need for it if the feeling is that trade is going to decline.
Why exactly would you invest in American dollars if you can't use those American dollars to buy American goods? or if American companies are gonna be hurt by their lack of export markets. So when we're talking about the value of the American dollar and what actually has happened under President Trump, de-dollarization is a really dangerous thing.
To articulate that, I asked our friend sponsors over at Perplexity, what would the impact be on American economics of de-dollarization? And perplexity says, de-dollarization reverts to the process by which countries reduce their reliance on the US dollar for international trade, financial transactions, and as a reserve currency.
And the key economic impacts include higher borrowing costs and reduced financial flexibility, depreciation of the dollar and inflationary pressures. U.S. financial assets like equities and bonds could underperform relative to global markets as international investors reallocate away from dollar denominated assets.
If they're not using dollars, there's no reason for them to buy American products, for example, or American financial assets. A loss of geopolitical and economic leverage. Remember, President Trump likes using sanctions. Well, sanctions are only effective if you have something to actually take away from the bad guys. And there would be uncertain effects on economic growth. The effect of U.S.
economic growth is ambiguous. A weaker dollar could enhance export competitiveness, make it easier for us to quote unquote cheaply produce goods. But those benefits might be offset by reduced foreign investment. So again, all this is not a particularly great indicator. Now, President Trump continues to tout his tariff war in Michigan. He did that the other night. Here he was.
But I'm thrilled to be back in this beautiful state. I love this state. Got a lot of auto jobs coming. Watch what's happening. The companies are coming in by the tens. You got to see what's happening. They all want to come back to Michigan and build cars again. You know why? Because of our tax and tariff policy.
Okay, well, that's not exactly right. The reason that's not exactly right is because GM reported its actual financials yesterday. Apparently, GM has now reduced its profits 6.6% in Q1, and they adjusted their 2025 outlook as well. Their prior full-year guidance had suggested pretty significant growth. Now they say that while U.S. sales rose,
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Chapter 3: What are the political consequences of the economic downturn for Republicans?
Chapter 4: What role does de-dollarization play in the U.S. economy's challenges?
Okay, well, that's not exactly right. The reason that's not exactly right is because GM reported its actual financials yesterday. Apparently, GM has now reduced its profits 6.6% in Q1, and they adjusted their 2025 outlook as well. Their prior full-year guidance had suggested pretty significant growth. Now they say that while U.S. sales rose,
they are having a significant problem with the tariff war. In fact, the chief financial officer, Paul Jacobson, told reporters on a call, GM will not comment on the cost incurred from tariffs. Why? Because they're afraid of taking off President Trump, presumably. President Trump has already blown holes in his tariffs by announcing that there would be some exceptions for American car companies.
GM said in January, it expected net profits in the range of $11.2 billion to $12.5 billion for full year 2025 and pre-tax profits of $13.7 billion to $15.7 billion. But they're now revising all of those statistics significantly down based on the tariff war. So President Trump has been trying to adjust to that by essentially cutting holes in his own tariff regime.
Meanwhile, Black & Decker, again, this is an industrial company, Black & Decker is raising prices this year and retooling their entire supply chain in an attempt to blunt the impact of the global trade war, according to executives on Wednesday to The Wall Street Journal.
They say that President Trump's tariff war is expected to dent their full year earnings per share by about 75 cents as it takes action to mitigate new costs. So this stuff is damaging. What's even more damaging is some of the rhetoric that is now surrounding this stuff. So President Trump put out a post yesterday in which he claimed that this is Joe Biden's stock market, not his own stock market.
This brings a strong contrast to 2024 when the stock market started to increase. He said it was his stock market because the markets were expecting him to be president of the United States. Now he's been president for four months and he is claiming that it is not his stock market. That is a dog that is not going to hunt just in terms of PR. Quote, this is Biden's stock market, not Trump's.
I didn't take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in and our companies are starting to move into the U.S. in record numbers. Our country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden overhang. This will take a while. It has nothing to do with tariffs, only that he left us with bad numbers. But when the boom begins, it will be like no other. Be patient.
Okay, well, markets yesterday upon this news were not particularly patient. They've not dropped precipitously again because of the hope that President Trump is going to, in the end, back off of this tariff war. But I will say that politically speaking, President Trump is not setting himself up for success when he says what he said yesterday.
So yesterday, President Trump suggested that this is not a big deal, that if there are problems with these supply chains and things just don't arrive on the shelves, you know, no biggie.
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Chapter 5: What are the prospects and challenges for U.S.-China trade relations?
If countries are setting the parameters for what the negotiations are and not the administration with concrete asks, it's a little bit like they're setting themselves up. So what is coming down the line? Are these trade deals coming down the line? Because the tariffs are beginning to bite. Now, there's another danger, too. China is experiencing an economic slowdown, as you would imagine.
It turns out that cutting the Chinese off from the American markets, they do have an impact on China as well. And that would be a purely good thing if we actually had plans in place to contain the effects of that. So China's economy, according to the journal, showed its first big signs of damage from the trade war as steep U.S.
tariffs pummeled export orders and production at the country's factories. The sharp pullback shows that President Trump's eye-watering tariffs on Chinese imports are starting to squeeze the engine room of China's economy, piling pressure on Beijing to boost its own stimulus efforts to shore up growth.
Now, China doesn't want to cut a deal with the United States because they feel that this is actually hurting the United States and President Trump worse than it is hurting them. That is despite the fact that it really is hurting China. But here's part of the problem. If China felt that it was hurting China badly enough, this tariff war, China does have a get out of jail free card.
And that get out of jail free card is a blockade of Taiwan. If China really felt threatened enough that their economy was going to go under or the CCP was in real danger, they would simply put a blockade around Taiwan, possibly destroy TSMC, which is the manufacturer of the semiconductors that power the globe. And most of the secondary semiconductors are made in China.
This is why it is not enough to have a good policy direction. You have to have a meticulous implementation of that policy. Now, look, the good news, as always, for the Trump administration is that its enemies are absolutely incompetent and quite terrible at this. Truly garbage at this. So the Democrats continue to futz around in search of a leader.
It is funny to watch them kind of flail around like a fish out of water. James Carville, who was still sort of the voice of reason on the Democratic side for a while there, he's now caving to the Democratic National Committee.
So David Hogg, the insipid and ridiculous vice chair of the DNC, he was made the vice chair after launching a failed pillow company, attending Harvard University with very, very low SAT scores because he had been a student at Parkland during the shooting. Well, now he's the vice chair, and he's been saying he wants to primary a bunch of moderate Democrats in Purple District.
And James Carville had criticized him. Well, now he's backing off, quote, just called David Hogg. He reminded me of the story of after the Battle of Shiloh, Henry Halleck urged President Lincoln to fire Ulysses Grant. Lincoln said, I can fire him. This man fights. David Hogg fights. The DNC needs him. Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha. So you're telling me that David Hogg, this ridiculous...
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Chapter 6: How are Democrats positioning themselves ahead of the 2028 elections?
Instead of an administration working to advance America's highest ideals... We are witnessing the wholesale abandonment of those ideals.
Wow. It's that sort of articulate, meticulous speech. That's why she's president of the United States today. Oh, wait. Here she was slamming the Trump administration.
It's an agenda, a narrow, self-serving vision of America. where they punish truth tellers, favor loyalists, cash in on their power, and leave everyone to fend for themselves, all while abandoning allies and retreating from the world.
You guys are going to need someone better than that. What about Tim Walz? Remember, they trotted him out as a possibility for 2028 after his awful run for vice president. Well, yesterday he was talking about why he was nominated for vice president by Kamala Harris at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. It didn't go great.
I knew I was on the ticket, I would argue, because we did a lot of amazing progressive things in Minnesota that improved people's lives, but I also was on the ticket, quite honestly, you know, because I could code talk to white guys watching football, fixing their truck, doing that, that I could put them at ease. I was the permission structure to say, look, you can do this and vote for this.
Well, I guess that the code talking didn't work. By the way, first hint that a candidate for the Democratic Party is not going to be able to talk to the bros, he uses terms like code talk. That would be the first indicator. Okay, so who else are the possibilities? Well, Democrats are positing that maybe Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan would be a possibility, the governor of Michigan.
And she has been making some interesting moves. She's been appearing on stage with President Trump, trying to prop up his economic plans in the Midwest, particularly with regards to sort of factory jobs. Here she was appearing with President Trump and they hugged.
Well, I hadn't planned to speak, but on behalf of all the military men and women who serve our country and serve so honorably on behalf of the state of Michigan, I am really damn happy we're here to celebrate this recapitalization at Selfridge. It's crucial for the Michigan economy. It's crucial for the men and women here, for our homeland security and our future. So thank you.
I am so, so grateful that this announcement was made today, and I appreciate all the work. Thank you.
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Chapter 7: What recent developments have occurred in U.S.-Ukraine economic relations?
And the sort of tacit promise of that deal was basically that if there was an economic relationship that was valuable to the United States and Ukraine, obviously the United States would have a stake in Ukraine not becoming Russian. Well, Secretary Besson made that absolutely clear yesterday in announcing the deal. Here he was.
Thanks to President Trump's tireless efforts to secure a lasting peace, I am glad to announce the signing of today's historic economic partnership agreement between the United States and Ukraine establishing the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund.
This partnership allows the United States to invest alongside Ukraine to unlock Ukraine's growth assets, mobilize American talent, capital, and governance standards that will improve Ukraine's investment climate and accelerate Ukraine's economic recovery. The Development Finance Corporation will participate and help to establish this fund in collaboration with the government of Ukraine.
Today's agreement signals clearly to Russian leadership that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term.
Okay, so that is the important part is what he says there is that this is a sign that the United States would like Ukraine to retain its independence. Okay, if that's true, which I assume that it is, that will have to mean additional military support to Ukraine if Putin does not come to the table. Now, the goal, of course, is to get Putin to the table and then the Europeans can sort of take over.
But in the meantime, you can't let Ukraine collapse or the rare earth minerals deal means pretty much nothing. So that is a welcome shift from the Trump administration and a good thing for Ukraine to have signed. Meanwhile- And the media continue to beclown themselves in a wide variety of ways. So the case of Kilmar Abrego Garcia continues to be a major talking point for Democrats.
He's a bad guy, Kilmar Abrego Garcia. We now have reports of a second protective order that his wife filed against him in 2020, in which she accused him of physical abuse, threatening her. And she said that she even had a recording where he said, even if he killed her, quote, nobody can do anything to him.
So it sounds like just a fabulous person, just a really, really good, solid American, you know, a father, a Maryland father, as the media would put it. Well, President Trump was interviewed about this particular topic, and he pointed out to ABC's Terry Moran that he had MS-13 tattoos.
Now, the reason this has become a hot story today is because there was, in fact, a graphic that was put out by members of the Trump administration that showed that he had a series of tattoos on his knuckles. Okay, those tattoos were a variety of symbols. Those symbols were interpreted by sources, judges, everybody else in the Trump administration as MS-13 associated symbols.
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Chapter 8: What controversies surround Kilmar Abrego Garcia and the media coverage?
But even the man that you picked out, he said he wasn't a member of a gang. And then they looked, and on his knuckles, he had MS-13. There's a dispute over that. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. He had MS-13 on his knuckles tattooed.
He had some tattoos that are interpreted that way. But let's move on. Wait a minute.
Hey, Terry, Terry. He did not have the letter MS-13. It says MS-13. That was Photoshopped. That was Photoshopped, Terry. You can't do that. Hey, they're giving you the big break of a lifetime. You know, you're doing the interview. I picked you because, frankly, I never heard of you, but that's okay. I picked you, Terry, but you're not being very nice. He had MS-13 tattooed.
We'll agree to disagree. I want to move on to something else.
Terry.
Do you want me to show you the picture? I saw the picture. And you think it was photoshopped? Here we go. Don't photoshop it. Go look at his hand.
He did have tattoos that can be interpreted that way. I'm not an expert on them. I want to turn to Ukraine.
No, no. He had MS, as clear as you can be, not interpreted. This is why people no longer believe the news, because it's fake news.
When he was photographed in El Salvador, they aren't there. But let's just go on.
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