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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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You decide you want new blinds or shades and suddenly you have to schedule an appointment and wait around for somebody to show up and you sit through a sales pitch and then you brace yourself for a gigantic quote.
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Chapter 2: What did President Trump announce regarding the Iran deal?
If that's the end of the war, if what the end of the war is, is this basically goes with a whimper, not a bang, that essentially we're like, you know what, we did enough, we're out. That would still be a strategic win for the United States. It would not be the bad temporary agreement, which makes the United States an advocate for Iran's bad policy.
But we don't know because we don't have the text of the deal. So here is how it all went down. On Sunday afternoon, the Pakistani prime minister Shabazz Sharif put out a statement. Again, I should point out here, I'm highly, highly, highly suspicious of a deal where Pakistan, Qatar, and Iran are happy. I'm very suspicious of such a deal. Pakistan is a Chinese cutout and an open ally with Iran.
So, treating them as though they are an American ally is foolhardy. In any case, Shabazz Sharif says, quote, Okay, so let's start with this. That's a lie. It's not true. Okay, because... The United States and Iran cannot declare an end to hostilities in Lebanon. Why? Well, because Hezbollah is a terrorist group that is operating within the purview of the Lebanese government.
Meanwhile, Israel is going to have to respond to terrorism across its border. As we will see, if the United States is going to suddenly become an advocate for the idea that Israel can't defend itself, then this is a giant L for the United States and for our allies. In any case, Sharif says the official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19th of June in Switzerland.
And what we are learning right now is that that would in fact include the Iranian parliamentary leader, Mohammad Khalibov in IRGC, stand-in, and the vice president, J.D. Vance. I think that's a horrible idea. If you want to sign some sort of temporary ceasefire, do it via DocuSign and be done.
The idea of a gigantic photo op with the leader of the Iranian parliament, who is a stand-in for the IRGC, is in fact a visual slap in the face to the tens of thousands of Iranians who died at the hands of Khalilbaf's friends. And not only that, it ties the Trump administration to whatever is the future of the Iranian regime.
We didn't even do this with Delcy Rodriguez, who's actually working with us. The Iranians are not working with us. The idea of deploying the vice president of the United States to do a handshake with an actual terror leader is a horrible idea. If you're going to do some sort of temporary deal and it's mediocre, fine. Just do a docusign and be done.
But the idea of a full-scale celebratory photo op, all that does is re-enshrine in the minds of the administration that they now have to pretend that the Iranians are reasonable and good and that anything they do is not a betrayal of the deal, which, of course, the Iranians will violate any deal. They violated every deal. There's not a deal the Iranians have ever signed they've not violated.
Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan, says we would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of the state of Qatar. There we go.
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Chapter 3: What are the implications of the memorandum of understanding with Iran?
So apparently that's not the case. asked about skepticism that the Iranians would actually agree. Trump said he wanted the strikes to end and they wanted the war to end too. I think they want to get it done. This has never happened to them before, he said. Trump said there would be strong inspections on the Iranians, but didn't specify how they would work.
He said Iran would not be provided cash in the deal, but sanctions could potentially be lifted. Okay, so this is a problem. Pallets of cash, sanctions being lifted, same thing, doesn't matter. If the money flows into Iran, that is a bad deal.
And remember, the elements of a bad deal, money flowing into Iran as they continue to covertly pursue nukes and build up their ballistic missile facilities and fund terrorism, that would be a bad deal. Now, the president is saying that all of that is contingent on how they behave. We'll see. Trump said... quote, as far as regime change, I never cared about regime change.
This is the third group we've dealt with. This is the most rational group yet. See, this is the problem. I don't like this. We should not be characterizing our opponents. Either they will be rational or they will not be rational. We do not have to characterize them as rational.
The reason I say this is because once you have invested in the lie that a bunch of millenarian psychotics who believe that they are going to take over the world on behalf of Shia Islam are a rational negotiating partner, you are already operating in the wrong frame of mind. You have now invested yourself in whatever they say being true, which it almost certainly is not. They lie all the time.
So what actually is this? The agreement paves the way for a 60-day period of negotiations over their nuclear program. In exchange for curbs on the program, Iran expects access to billions of dollars of cash blocked abroad and an end to sanctions that have stifled its economy. Okay, well, you know, we will see. So President Trump immediately went on the PR defensive with the New York Times.
He said in an interview on Sunday afternoon, the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately assure that the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free. That's not what the Iranians are saying. Again, I don't know whether he's saying what he thinks is true or whether they're saying what they think is true. I don't have the text. I don't know.
He says that he saved Israel from nuclear obliteration. Well, again, that is far from clear at this point in time, obviously. Trump also insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States, he would restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States the guardian of the Middle East in return for 20% of the region's revenues.
The problem is you can't keep threatening this without doing it. That is the really, really biggest problem in the Middle East. You cannot issue empty threats and your bluff gets called over and over and over again. And then you just keep saying it's not a big deal. Ceasefires get violated and you say it's not a big deal. If you blow your credibility, you have a problem in the Middle East.
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Chapter 4: What constitutes a good deal for the United States with Iran?
His version of the deal is we're moving toward nuclear disarmament. The Iranians are our wonderful partners. And eventually we'll get a permanently toll-free, straightforward moves, all the rest. Okay. Then there's what Iran is saying. Here's what Iran is saying.
And this is one of the reasons I suspect that actually there's not very much in this memo of understanding, because when you have two sides to essentially a term sheet and the term sheet says nothing, both sides can then construe that they got everything from the term sheet. So according to Trump, he got everything. According to Iran, they didn't just get everything.
They are basically the new global hegemon. According to Iran, here is what's in the deal. One, an immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Again, the idea here would be that Iran has forced the United States to tell Israel it can't defend itself. Two, a U.S.
commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. So we would have to basically swear that forever we'll never do anything. that threatens the regime. Three, the complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days. Four, a commitment of the United States to withdraw its forces from Iran's surrounding areas.
Well, I mean, Iran's surrounding areas include Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi. Five, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements determined by Iran. Now again, not toll-free. They get to determine how it goes according to Iran.
Six, the suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, as well as full Iranian access to the resulting financial revenues. So no sanctions anymore. Again, if Iran's characterization of this deal is correct, it is in fact a horrific deal. If Trump's characterization of the deal is correct, it's a good deal.
The reality, there's probably nothing in the deal. Number seven, a requirement for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. They want us to rebuild everything that got blown up. Eight, 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement focused on nuclear issues and the complete removal of all US primary and secondary sanctions.
Nine, Iran's reaffirmation of its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty not to produce nukes. Oh, so they'll give us their word, is what they say, in return for us relieving all sanctions on them and them having billions, hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into their coffers to spread terrorism, to build ballistic missiles, and to covertly build a nuclear program.
They will give their very, very durable word that they will not produce nuclear weapons. Point of fact, they've been a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty since 1970, and they've been violating it since about that same time. 10, during the negotiation period, the United States would commit not to increase its military forces in the region and not to impose any new sanctions.
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Chapter 5: What are the potential downsides of a bad deal with Iran?
This stuff was fine with Democrats at the White House. And there it is. There it is at the White House. That was fine with Democrats at the White House. Hunter Biden, however, found all of this wildly inappropriate and upsetting. I mean, and if someone knows inappropriate and upsetting, it is Parmesan cheese off the carpet cocaine guy, seven hookers at a time on his laptop.
He knows what is appropriate at the White House.
I like UFC. I mean, I like watching it. They ruin it. They ruin it. It makes it hard. Now, you know what I mean? It literally does because everybody's got to choose a side. They have to put it on the goddamn South Lawn and I'm in the midst of the 250th anniversary. I mean, I can't understand why Dana White, I don't have anything against Dana White, but what the fuck, man? Like, it's your brand.
Like, how are you doing this? How are you doing this? How is this appropriate?
Well, I mean, that guy knows appropriate. That guy knows appropriate. It's like getting marital advice from OJ Simpson here. Abigail Spanberger also says that a UFC fight at the White House, it's a sad lesson for our kids. Oh man, this is where we drag out the kids. It's a sad lesson. If we have a fight at the White House and motorcycles and American flags, that's a sad lesson for our kids.
The best lessons for our kids are the ones where you say that they can become members of the opposite sex. Those are like the best lessons for our kids. Those are the ones we need.
People looked at the United States with reverence, with gratitude, because of our history of being a stable actor, a loyal partner. The place where, and this is the 250th year since our Declaration of Independence, an example for the rest of the world on what is possible when you build a nation based on ideas.
And so the reality that there's going to be a UFC fight at the White House to celebrate our 250th, it's a disconnect for me that I just think is a sad lesson for our kids.
It is. It's a sad lesson. I mean, people fighting at the White House, what you really need is people receiving oral sex in the Oval Office of the White House to really, you know, restore honor to the White House. Jimmy Kimmel weighed in with a bad joke. I mean, what would a day be without a Jimmy Kimmel bad joke? Well, a better day, but those days are uncommon.
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