The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
College Football Playoff semi picks: Oregon revenge vs. Indiana; Miami a good matchup for Ole Miss?
08 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What are the matchups for the College Football Playoff semifinals?
Welcome back to the Bill & Doug Show, picking the semifinals. Doug LaMaurice and Bill Landis. Thursday, 7.30 p.m. Eastern, Ole Miss versus Miami. That's a 6 versus 10. Friday, 7.30 Eastern, Indiana, Oregon. That's a 1 versus a 5. Landis will start with Ole Miss and Miami. Is this awesome? I like it. It's good, right? It's different.
It's a six and an eight won the national championship last year. Like these are this is these are not teams that would have even had a chance. Now they have both won two games in unexpected fashion, knocking off two blue bloods of the sport and Ohio State and Georgia. Definitely a different flavor. Yeah, I think it's fun.
Well, I guess Miami preseason had a little bit of buzz, and certainly after beating Notre Dame, kind of elevated itself, I think, into the conversation for everybody, but then they sort of fell off the radar. So for them to get back to this position, I think, is pretty impressive.
And then for Ole Miss, I think, to kind of navigate a very strange season to get to this point, too, is sort of equally impressive. So I realize these aren't the... You know, the two sexiest teams or sexiest brands in college football, though certainly Miami has a history.
Chapter 2: How do Ole Miss and Miami compare in their Fiesta Bowl matchup?
I think this is probably what the sport wanted, right, when it expanded the playoffs. So here we are to sort of... at least not modern blue bloods Miami, like maybe at a time was competing for a spot in the national championship. I wonder what the sport wanted. Like they wanted to provide opportunity, but did they really want opportunity to be in the top four? Maybe, I don't know.
Well, they got, they got two, two new money semifinals. So whether or not they wanted it, they got it. please enjoy your time in the playoff but lose in the first or second round and then we can get back to ohio state alabama georgia notre dame figuring this thing out texas right that kind of thing and that's what people love like george mason making the final four when people excited about that
I always think in the college basketball tournament, you hit a ceiling with the underdogs. You want the underdog to knock off. You love the 16, 15, 14, 13 winning that initial game. But then at some point, it's like, oh, okay, can we have the good teams play each other now? I think you like the underdog making the sweet 16.
Sometimes I wonder if you're actually excited about them making the final four. What if it's all underdogs? That's not a direct comparison to what we have here, but it's not like... Because sometimes you get that and then they just run into whatever Duke and get their doors blown off. Duke's not in the Final Four this year. I think you want good players and exciting things.
And so I... You know, it's one of those things. If Steph Curry's on your underdog, then great. Because I think you want guys to connect to. You maybe want guys that are a preview of something to come. And that's the thing about this, that... You know, there's a lot of guys on these four teams that we're going to be seeing.
Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore might be the first two picks in the draft, right? So this is not Ohio State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, but this is a lot of talent. Trinidad Chambliss might be in people's lives, right? Reuben Bain and Akeem Mesidor are going to be in people's lives. Keontae Scott's going to play in the NFL, right? Kwon Lacey's going to play in the NFL.
So I think that's an interesting part of it. It is one of those you look at. So this first game, it's in the Fiesta Bowl on Thursday. Ole Miss-Miami. Miami is favored by three and a half. The total is 52 and a half. In the Brian Firmaux Index, FEI, Miami is six. In the SP Plus from Bill Connolly, Miami is eight. FEI, Ole Miss is 11. SP Plus, Ole Miss is five.
So those two statistical ratings have them actually flipped in terms of who's the better team. SP Plus still has some lingering, I think, recruiting stuff in there, maybe like a talent quotient. This is a little bit, Bill, I think coming in, To the playoff, we sort of, at least when we got to the final eight, it was pretty clear. There were two, I think, weaknesses among the final eight teams.
The other six teams were pretty balanced, relatively speaking. But it was the Texas Tech offense, which showed up because they got shut out. They were the worst unit in the final eight, Texas Tech offense. I don't think there was any doubt about that. And then the Ole Miss defense.
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Chapter 3: What are the strengths and weaknesses of Ole Miss and Miami's offenses?
So I'm going to pick Miami 27-21. They have a chance, and that was the best thing. The most surprising thing, the best thing I think they did against Ohio State was get some of that stuff going in the run game and get some nice second-level blocks, do some stuff on the interior, move some people. They have some offensive linemen who could do that, and I don't know...
And Ole Miss' defense is not great. So I don't know if they're going to hold up for that. So, all right. Those are our picks. We're both picking Miami. Second game is on Friday, 7.30 in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.
Chapter 4: How does the Miami defense match up against Ole Miss's playmakers?
Indiana versus Oregon. It's a rematch. Indiana won. In Autzen Stadium at Oregon, 30-20 on October 11th. Indiana also favored by three and a half. So we have two three and a half point lines here. 47 and a half is the total. These are two excellent balance teams. FEI. Brian Formo, Indiana's one. Oregon is two. Indiana is third in both offense and defense.
Oregon is second in offense and fourth in defense. SP Plus, Bill Connolly, Indiana one. Oregon two. Indiana third in offense, second in defense. Oregon seventh in offense, third in defense. These are two more complete teams than what we talked about in the first semifinal. They've been there all year. Indiana hasn't lost. Oregon's only lost to Indiana.
A couple injuries that do matter in this game. Stephen Daly on the defensive line for Indiana is out. That has been the case in the playoff. He got hurt celebrating the Big Ten championship win over Ohio State. And then Jordan Davison, who's part of the running back trio for Oregon, is also out on the injury report for this game. And it's like the Oregon run game really intrigues me here, Bill.
They've been running it pretty healthily much of the year. their backs against Washington in the last game of the regular season, only 32 carries for 90 yards, 2.8. And again, against Texas tech, which again, invested all their money in the defensive line, the Oregon running backs were 31 carries for 86 yards.
Also 2.8 in the first game against Indiana, Oregon's running backs were 20 carries for a hundred yards and up, not doing the overall Russian totals. I'm only doing what the running backs did to take out the sacks and take out the QB run and any other weird stuff. Um, Without Jordan Davidson, they'll run it with Noah Whittington and D.R. Hill. They still have guys who can do it.
But if Oregon can't run it, I think they might be in trouble. But also, I wonder, I think maybe they can, even though Davidson's out. Because Davidson averages like 10, 12 carries a game. He's not like, they're missing 25 carries here. Whittington will be okay, and D.R. Hill will just step up his role. Yeah, Oregon's offensive line, I thought, played pretty well against Texas Tech, too.
So I don't know. I think they'll be able to run it because it's been by committee all year, right? So maybe you hoped to have Davidson or you hoped you could have him if you're Oregon, but it's not like... you're suddenly pulling a guy out of the lineup who had 25 touches a game. And he's a good player, but I think they'll find a way around it.
I wonder, he's not a huge runner, but can you run Dante Moore a little more to try to account for that maybe? Or get some of these receivers involved in the run game on sweeps and stuff like that. There are ways to get your run game going sort of around that unfortunate injury. And I think Indiana's defense is very good.
Teams have run it on them, not for entire games, but when teams have moved the ball on Indiana's defense, it has come via the run. And if you take out the sacks from the first game against Oregon, I thought Oregon ran it okay against Indiana, too. And this is the second time seeing this defense. So I think Oregon's run game is still fairly bankable in this game, even with the injury.
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