Chapter 1: What are the headlines covered in today's episode?
A listener production. Hi, Natasha Belling with you and welcome to the afternoon edition of The Briefing. Coming up in our deep dive, the electorate of Farrar in southern New South Wales is going to a by-election this weekend after the resignation of former Liberal leader Susan Lee.
It's a seat many are watching very closely as another key indicator of the power of one nation in a new Australian political landscape. Those details in just a moment. But first, let's check the afternoon headlines this Thursday the 7th of May. A number of so-called ISIS brides and children will arrive back in Australia shortly.
There is believed to be a heavy police presence at both Sydney and Melbourne airports, with claims a number of women will be arrested.
Chapter 2: How is the education platform Canvas affected by the data breach?
Here is Senior Labor Minister Jason Clare speaking earlier today.
The Australian Federal Police Commissioner outlined yesterday the work that they will be doing with these families. Firstly... Chrissie Barrett mentioned that some of the women returning will be arrested when they return. Others will be the subject of further investigation by the Australian Federal Police.
The flights are scheduled to land around 5.30pm Eastern tonight. There are concerns hundreds of thousands of students and teachers across the country could have been exposed to a massive data breach of education platform Canvas. Authorities have already alerted Queensland students and teachers about the data breach with names, emails and school locations stolen.
The state's education minister, John Paul Lambrook, made the announcement in a statement today and linked the Queensland breach to a wider international hack. A group that call themselves Shiny Hunters is claiming to have broken into the education platform, warning they have the personal information...
of 275 million people from almost 9,000 education institutions which also includes Australian universities. It's believed a number of educational institutions are currently assessing whether their data has also been breached. A judge in New York has unsealed an alleged suicide note from Jeffrey Epstein.
The New York Times reported that Epstein's former cellmate was claiming he found a note after Epstein first attempted to kill himself. That note was then sealed in court documents relating to another case until the New York Times petitioned to have the note released. The note, which has not been officially verified, reads in part, quote, they investigated me for months, found nothing.
And it is a treat to be able to choose one's time to say goodbye. Less than 24 hours after a controversial decision not to show FIFA World Cup matches on the big screen in Federation Square, the Victorian Premier has announced she is overturning it. The decision was originally made by the Melbourne Arts Precinct governing body and based on the behaviour of a small number of people.
Today, though, the Victorian Premier came out to say she didn't want the funds spoiled by a few people.
Because I'm not going to let... And I don't think the Victorian community as a whole is going to let... A few dickheads get in the way of all of us enjoying a moment of national pride, a moment where we get to come together.
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Chapter 3: What details are emerging about the return of ISIS brides to Australia?
But as we know, polls can sometimes be wrong. So who will win and what will it reveal about what voters are really thinking in 2026, especially in regional and rural areas? Tony, thanks so much for joining us. Why is this by-election in Farah so important?
Well, it's obviously a missed test to see how One Nation's performing in real time as opposed to polling, which is, you know, not a predictive tool, but it gives you a sense of a barometer of what the public are thinking at any given time. But we saw in Nepean, the Victorian by-election just last weekend, that One Nation really overperformed in a seat...
they really should not have performed that well in. So I would expect we're going to see similar sort of pattern in Faro where you would expect them to perform quite well.
Okay, so a lot of experts are saying, Tony, that this is basically a two-horse race between the independent candidate and the One Nation candidate. Do you agree with that analysis?
Yeah, it's hard to see the... You know, when our national polling is showing us that the Coalition are around 22% primary vote and One Nation are at 27% nationally, obviously Farah is a unique seat. The urban centre of Albury makes up a huge part of the voting base, but it's a seat where you would expect One Nation to be performing well. And I think some of the factors like...
the fuel crisis, that's got to be particularly sensitive there. It's a bit of a perfect storm for One Nation to perform well.
So, Tony, do you think this result, and as you mentioned, sometimes the polls can be wrong, but it looks like the One Nation candidate, David Farley, may win this. Do you think if he does win, that that is more of an indication that people are voting for Pauline Hanson rather than the local candidate?
Yes.
Yeah, we've asked on a national sample for the Australian Financial Review recently reasons why One Nation voters were voting One Nation. And we asked them to do top of mind where they put it in themselves rather than us give them a laundry list of ideas why I think. And what that showed was 21% of those voting One Nation were doing so as a protest against major parties.
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Chapter 4: What controversy surrounds Jeffrey Epstein's unsealed suicide note?
The service and the outcomes are very poor. So sort of saying, well, you know, One Nation's never built a hospital. Again, they're just like, good, good. That means they might get it right. Because you blokes can't get it right. So those messages aren't landing. And when we test them quantitatively, just 8% thought that was a compelling reason to not vote for One Nation. So...
You've seen Andrew Hastie yesterday came out very, very hard on Pauline Hanson. He said Pauline Hanson is about MAGA. MAGA first and Australia second. So he's onto it and, you know, that's why he's a little bit dangerous, I think, for the One Nation because he'll take the fight right up to them.
But the other data point out of that poll which caught my eye was 47% of One Nation voters said they had no hesitations at all. Nut. Now, as I always warn in focus groups and quant, It's like asking a married couple on their honeymoon, you know, is this love forever, you know? And I would expect you find 99% of the times you'd hope they'd say, yeah, of course it is.
So certainly in folks who have said like, oh, no, no, she's the way to go. You know, we need one nation now. six months' time, you know, that that might all change. But at the moment, you know, we're seeing at least half of their vote are totally locked in. That would mean the floor, One Nation floor, is around 15% thereabouts, which is a lot, lot higher than it's been nationally.
So, Tony, your estimation, if your research is right and the people are telling you the truth, this is an indication that the by-election in Faro is just the beginning of this wave of orange taking over the Australian political landscape. And I'm not talking about Donald Trump. I'm talking about One Nation.
Yeah, I think when you go back to those factors, 55% say Australia's heading in the wrong direction, 56% say the next generation will have a worse future than their parents, and then that other item about, you know, burn it all down 15%, I think, you know, There's a bedrock there for One Nation and the Liberal and National brand is very, very damaged at the moment.
Voters have not forgiven them for their past performance much recently and there's no expectation from the polling I see that that's going to improve. Farrah is obviously a regional seat where you'd expect the coalition to perform better. But you go to those urban seats, I think, you know, they're going to start eating to a bit of a Labor vote
most of their vote is coming off the Liberal National Poll, the absolute majority of it. But we're finding about 15% of One Nation's vote is actually off Labor voters who likewise feel they're being let down. So I think both parties have got a rocky road ahead. But certainly, you know, the coalition are fighting for their survival at the moment. And there's absolutely no guarantee.
I don't believe it's cyclical. I think it's deeper than that. And it's bordering on existential.
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