S2 Ep1017: Catherine Rampell: Trump's Tariffmageddon
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Who are the guests and what is the episode about?
Hello and welcome to the Bullard Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. We got a double header today. Congressman Jason Crowe from Colorado in segment two. But first, delighted to bring back a syndicated opinion columnist at the Washington Post. She's joining MSNBC as co-anchor for a new weekend show. Also a special correspondent for the NewsHour. She's busy. It's Catherine Rampell. What's up?
Doing okay. How are you?
Doing okay? Personally, I'm well.
Well, I don't know. My 401k doesn't look great. Democracy doesn't look great. But I have my health.
Yeah.
That's what I'm supposed to tell myself, right?
And we have a long path in front of us. The college fund, I still got 11 years to rebound the 401k after today. It's not the 401k, but the college savings account.
Well, you're assuming colleges will still be around.
That's a good point.
Which...
We're moving to autarky, as our friend Derek Thompson said. It'll be kind of a home college where we'll bring in someone from the capital to give the approved lesson plan. Who knows? Could be an interesting future. I was going to start with candy, though. You took us dark to the dark possible future. I want to start with just a little. The people deserve candy because there's going to be a lot of negativity, I think, on the podcast, I sense. So I want to just remind people that we did have a campaign last year in 2024. And there was a candidate, Kamala Harris, who expressed some thoughts about the economy and what she thought might be coming. And I want to play a little sizzle reel.
include the fact that Donald Trump's plans for the economy would accelerate inflation and invite a recession by the middle of next year. Increase inflation and by the middle of next year would invite a recession. Increase inflation and invite a recession by the middle of next year. No recession by the middle of next year. To a recession by the middle of next year. Recession by the middle of next year. Recession by the middle of next year. A recession by the middle of next year. Recession by the middle of next year. A recession by the middle of next year. Recession by the middle of next year.
She tried to warn you. Are we going to have a recession by the middle of this year, Catherine?
She's not the only one. She was actually citing a study that looked at what Donald Trump's effect on the economy would be if he put in place his full agenda. And I also said last year, if he put in place his full agenda, yes, this would be devastating to the global economy. But we should not assume that's the base case, right? Because Donald Trump says a lot of things that he doesn't carry out And so, you know, there's certainly a chance of Armageddon, but who knows what he's actually going to do. And then there were obviously people on Wall Street who were even, who were much more sanguine even than that, who like heard Armageddon. Donald Trump say again and again, I'm a tariff man. I'm going to put 10% tariffs on every product around the world.
But all they absorbed was, what was that, corporate tax cuts? And so markets were more joyful and euphoric even. last year shortly after the election because they didn't think at all that you know they seem to think that there was zero probability that he would do the thing that he said he was going to do and they would only get the goodies essentially and now we're seeing people absorb the reality
It's pretty amazing that the Berkeley communist Kamala Harris had a better sense for what was going to happen with the economy than people who are paid to be experts on the economy or people whose livelihoods and finances are dependent on their bets on what the economy is going to do. It seems like a pretty big goof for all of the biggest finance experts to be like, you know, I'm just going to take a flyer on the guy that bankrupted a casino and keeps telling us that he has plans that will tank the economy. I'm going to just assume that he's going to do what I want instead. That feels like a miss.
Yeah, I feel like there's a lot of schadenfreude about random Trump voters who supported him thinking he was going to bring down prices or make IVF free or one of various other ridiculous promises that he made. And now they're getting what's coming to them. And that's not really how I feel. I feel like Trump lied a lot on the campaign during the campaign about what he was going to do.
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