The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Mon, 28 Apr 2025
In this packed episode, Chuck opens with a sobering assessment of President Trump's plummeting approval ratings and questions about his administration's credibility before diving into critical structural concerns about the Department of Justice's independence and the need to expand the House of Representatives. He shifts to Florida politics, where a brewing corruption scandal threatens the governor's race and Republicans are increasingly willing to challenge Ron DeSantis's weakened political standing. New York Congressman Dan Goldman joins for an extended interview about the concept of rule of law before and after his experience during impeachment proceedings. Goldman offers insights into Trump's challenges to fundamental constitutional principles and proposes concrete reforms to better protect America's democratic institutions, including codifying limits on presidential interference in prosecutions, strengthening congressional subpoena powers, and potentially restructuring the Justice Department with Federal Reserve-like independence.The episode's second half features political handicapper Dave Wasserman analyzing the evolving electoral landscape heading into the midterms. Wasserman explains how understanding local communities is crucial to predicting election outcomes, while lamenting the lack of quality coverage in smaller markets. He delivers a forecast that Democrats could see sizable gains in the House, with Trump's tariff policies potentially hurting Republicans in farm states. The discussion explores gerrymandering's changing impact, with both parties now complaining about the practice, and examines how the 2030 census might reshape the electoral map. Finally, they discuss the prospect of a “blue wave” in the 2026 midterm elections and whether we could see one or both chambers of congress change hands.Timeline00:00 Multiple polls show sharp approval rating drop for Trump03:00 Trump’s spokespeople are losing credibility05:00 Department of Justice needs more independence 7:30 The House of Representatives needs to be expanded8:45 White House Correspondents weekend was awkward12:15 Corruption scandal looming over Florida governor race13:15 Florida Republicans are no longer afraid of Ron DeSantis15:30 Ron DeSantis may be weaker, but Florida Democrats aren’t stronger17:00 The Shedeur Sanders commentary was ridiculous19:10 Congressman Dan Goldman joins the show19:40 What are the highlights of his district, NY-10? 26:35 What did "rule of law" mean to you before and after working on the impeachment proceedings? 30:25 Fundamental tenets of rule of law are being challenged 31:00 Amendments 4-10 are about equal protection under the law, for citizens and non-citizens 34:20 Trump has exposed why government is susceptible to leaders willing to break their oath of office 36:10 We need to codify into law that the president can't weigh in on individual prosecutions 38:40 Enforcement of congressional subpoenas needs legal teeth 41:30 Should we set up Justice with a level of independence like we did with the Federal Reserve? 48:40 If impeachment couldn't hold Trump accountable, why would the justice system? 50:10 Trump's conduct warranted prosecution 52:55 The impeachment process is broken 54:10 Trump has an unexplained infatuation for Vladimir Putin 7:25 The Republican majority in the House has turned all of their authority over to Trump 1:01:40 What can Democratic members of congress do other than speak out? 1:05:25 If Democrats want to win in 2026, what should they be talking about? 1:08:55 Is Andrew Cuomo vs Eric Adams really the best that NYC can do?1:14:45 Chuck’s thoughts on his conversation with Dan Goldman1:17:35 Dave Wasserman joins the show! 1:19:35 Mainstreaming interest in political handicapping 1:24:05 Understanding a local community is crucial to handicapping 1:27:05 Smaller markets not getting coverage they deserve 1:28:20 Determining how competitive a race will be? 1:31:05 House map is less skewed than it used to be 1:34:35 Complaining about gerrymandering has become more bipartisan 1:36:05 Democrats could see sizeable midterm gains 1:42:50 How will retirements affect the midterms? 1:4:05 Tariffs will cost Republicans in the farm states 1:45:05 Kansas headed toward swing state status? 1:48:05 Reappropriation from 2030 census could add several new red seats 1:49:35 Can Republicans further gerrymander states like Texas and Florida? 1:53:35 Virginia governor race isn't that competitive 1:58:50 Conventional wisdom is that Democrats shouldn't choose a woman for 28 1:59:50 Is a blue wave developing? 2:01:05 Trump doesn't care about Republicans other than himself2:03:16 Chuck’s final thoughts
Chapter 1: What do recent polls reveal about Trump's approval ratings?
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Because the Pew-Poll-Preview that I gave you a couple of episodes ago essentially was repeated by everybody else's poll in the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN. Everybody has essentially found the same thing. This first 100 days for President Trump has not gone well at all.
We can do the quick top lines, but look, the economy, if you think about it, in the first 100 days from when he started on day one, What's gone better from him? Only one thing has gone better. And that's the border. The economy is worse. The world is more unstable. Government trust is worse.
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Chapter 2: Why is the independence of the Department of Justice important?
When you think about the things ultimately that he was elected to do, restore some trust and integrity in government. That hasn't happened. Things are worse. Make the economy better and bring down prices. That hasn't happened. If anything, prices are going to be going up. This economy is more unstable. We just had the worst March housing report in basically since the pandemic.
So when you look at those, all of the actual metrics that Forget before you get to polling, like where the actual economy is, where the actual things are. It's you know, the public's being rather logical about this. They're not happy. They don't like what he's doing. The biggest thing is, I think the Pew poll did better, frankly, than anybody else.
And that was the reason I spent so much time in that Pew poll with you, is I think they did the best job of helping to explain. While the public still shares his goals and would like to see him succeed on the promises he's made, there is just widespread belief this has just been poorly executed. An administration really that's more about incompetency than anything else.
This is the gang really that can't shoot straight in here. And so this is not good at all. So the first 100 days have been a failure. The question is going to be, what are the next 100 days? They need to get some trade deals. They need to get some points on the board right now. They claim all these people are knocking on their door, making calls. So far, no deals have happened. Not one.
I think at one point, one of them, one of the spokespeople for the administration said 90 deals in 90 days. That was a possibility. But one thing you've got to understand is this administration wants Probably more than any other. Look, you always expect representatives of the administration to be saying, putting everything in the best possible light.
But there's best possible light and then there's sort of this, there's a point where I think these spokespeople are losing credibility. Marco Rubio, I think, is losing credibility. Scott Besant, if he's not careful, is going to lose credibility. I mean, this is one of the quotes he had from Sunday shows in game theory. It's called strategic uncertainty.
So you're not going to tell the person on the other side of the negotiation where you're going to end up. And nobody's better at creating this leverage than President Trump. Essentially, that was him on trade and on these talks, not just with China, but with other countries. But you have to sit here and say to yourself. Really? Strategic uncertainty? That's what's good for? No.
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Chapter 3: What challenges does Ron DeSantis face in Florida politics?
Strategic uncertainty is why this economy is tanking right before our eyes. It's why nobody wants to buy a house or put a house for sale. Strategic uncertainty? He knows better, but he's trying desperately to speak to dear leader. So it really is one of these things where I think we've seen and I've, look, I've beaten this dead horse a few times.
This administration, Trump 2.0, is not a continuation of Trump 1.0. Trump 1.0, Mike Pence, Reince Priebus, Jared Kushner, those three gentlemen did a lot to create guardrails and have personnel that knew what they were doing. And in hindsight, I think all three of those gentlemen deserve a lot more credit for their time in government service than they got at the time.
Understandably, politics is a rough business. But boy, when you look at the big difference between 1.0 and 2.0. It's pretty plain to see. Just a few other things. Look, I've got an extra supersized episode for you. I've got Congressman Dan Goldman.
He, of course, was the chief counsel on the first Trump impeachment, decided to get into politics and is in his second term representing a big chunk of New York City. So we spend a little bit talking about the law, talking about is there a better way to appoint the Justice Department? Is there a way to depoliticize the Justice Department, take it out of the executive branch?
I'm somebody who thinks we should be treating the attorney, the appointment of the attorney general and the deputy attorney generals and all of those folks should be much closer to how we handle the Federal Reserve. Yes, there's presidential appointments, but it's not easy for a president to fire a member of the Fed governor, although he may try. We'll see.
And if you had a situation where there were five year terms so that there was always some sort of potential overlap with a previous administration, regardless of party, but a previous administration, I think you could see only way to restore any sort of integrity the way, if anything.
This Justice Department is doing more, I think, to ruin trust in the rule of law, the politicizing of Eric Adams, the politicizing of the D.C. U.S. Attorney, constant politicization of what's going on here. You know, if this, you know, supposedly Donald Trump ran against politicizing the Justice Department and if anything, he's decided to weaponize.
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Chapter 4: What insights does Dan Goldman share about the rule of law?
Chapter 5: How might the 2026 elections shape up for Democrats?
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Because the Pew-Poll-Preview that I gave you a couple of episodes ago essentially was repeated by everybody else's poll in the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN. Everybody has essentially found the same thing. This first 100 days for President Trump has not gone well at all.
We can do the quick top lines, but look, the economy, if you think about it, in the first 100 days from when he started on day one, What's gone better from him? Only one thing has gone better. And that's the border. The economy is worse. The world is more unstable. Government trust is worse.
When you think about the things ultimately that he was elected to do, restore some trust and integrity in government. That hasn't happened. Things are worse. Make the economy better and bring down prices. That hasn't happened. If anything, prices are going to be going up. This economy is more unstable. We just had the worst March housing report in basically since the pandemic.
So when you look at those, all of the actual metrics that Forget before you get to polling, like where the actual economy is, where the actual things are. It's you know, the public's being rather logical about this. They're not happy. They don't like what he's doing. The biggest thing is, I think the Pew poll did better, frankly, than anybody else.
And that was the reason I spent so much time in that Pew poll with you, is I think they did the best job of helping to explain. While the public still shares his goals and would like to see him succeed on the promises he's made, there is just widespread belief this has just been poorly executed. An administration really that's more about incompetency than anything else.
This is the gang really that can't shoot straight in here. And so this is not good at all. So the first 100 days have been a failure. The question is going to be, what are the next 100 days? They need to get some trade deals. They need to get some points on the board right now. They claim all these people are knocking on their door, making calls. So far, no deals have happened. Not one.
I think at one point, one of them, one of the spokespeople for the administration said 90 deals in 90 days. That was a possibility. But one thing you've got to understand is this administration wants Probably more than any other. Look, you always expect representatives of the administration to be saying, putting everything in the best possible light.
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Chapter 6: What impact does gerrymandering have on electoral outcomes?
Of the many of the organizations that pay for all these parties, they're part of the problem. They're the ones not standing up for the First Amendment with the Associated Press. They're the ones not that are telling their reporters and correspondents to hold back, not ask tough questions because they're afraid of.
Ich verstehe die Angst, ich verstehe die Verantwortung der Verkäuferinnen und Verkäufer. But boy, am I insulted when you spend a bunch of money this weekend claiming that you're fighting for the First Amendment, when many of these companies have done nothing for the First Amendment this year, as this administration has gotten aggressive. A few other notes from the weekend that I wanted to get.
I don't want to get out there. As a Floridian, I pay a lot of attention to what's going on with the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. And as you know, a couple of weeks ago, when there was those sets of special elections out there, dass das, was in einer der Hausreise in Pensacola passiert ist, dass es nicht war.
Du weißt, es gab definitiv eine Art Frustration, besonders in Escambia County, das ist eine County mit vielen Regierungslehrern, die nicht lieben, dass die Regierungslehrer etwas ausgetauscht haben. Aber es gab auch eine wachsende Resistenz an den Regierungslehrer, an Ron DeSantis. In der Tat, einer der leitenden republikanischen Kritiker repräsentiert die Pensacola-Area.
And this has been the person that's been Alex Andrade, who's been investigating what is clearly some sort of questionable government relationship with the First Lady, Casey DeSantis' non-profit, Hope Florida. There's a lot of questions, a lot of hiding of money. Money's fungible, but... How did they end up with government money?
And then that government money was then laundered to be used as, again, a political campaign on the marijuana initiative. There's just a lot of questions on this. But here's the big picture. The big picture is that it's pretty clear that Florida Republicans are not afraid of Ron DeSantis anymore. I'm not sure there's any Florida Republicans left that support Ron DeSantis in the elected leadership.
As I had a Florida Republican lobbyist tell me a couple weeks ago, he said to me during the session, boy, it's cute, Ron DeSantis still thinks he's governor. Look, he's got the title and he's got some power, but he's got a legislature that is not interested in helping him one iota. He has got, I think, a Republican Party that is ready to move on without him.
And I think Ron DeSantis has found out what happens when you, again, and I said this before, when you borrow somebody else's base, you're stuck with somebody else's base. And he borrowed Donald Trump's base. He never established his own base. He thought he did. He sort of mistook popularity during Covid as popularity for him. And his policy was popular, but he wasn't.
And the fact is, he's sort of always been an uncomfortable politician when it comes to interacting with other people. He is, you know, this is... He doesn't seem like somebody that enjoys campaigning. He doesn't seem like he's somebody that enjoys people. He's always in a defensive crouch in every interview, even when it's a friendly interview. So
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Chapter 7: Could a blue wave occur in the upcoming midterms?
So we have Dumbo, a lot of downtown Brooklyn. It sort of cuts right through downtown. Brooklyn Heights, Park Slope, Brownstone Brooklyn, and then it goes south even further all the way through Borough Park, Sunset Park, a little bit into Bay Ridge, and Red Hook, and then it comes back up the coast.
So it's a great, diverse district with lots of really spectacular neighborhoods, and it's fun to represent.
If we just counted private equity with Wall Street, would you say you're the wealthiest district in the country?
No, I'm actually not. I think there is data on that. My district is very much of a barbell. There are very, very wealthy... Some highs and some lows. But there's a significant number of my constituents who are really struggling. And I've got, for example, 31...
nicht public housing developments in my district and have a lot of of neighborhoods that are underserved and have been i think underrepresented by elected officials and i spend most of my time in the district in those neighborhoods
Your district too big. And I know geographically it's not, but you get what I'm saying when I say too big. Do you feel as if it you look, I'm somebody who thinks Congress is too small. Yeah, I know that's not a sexy topic, but I'm somebody who thinks we doubled the size of the house. People would feel a little more connected to government.
You you're actually outlining an interesting district to me in that. Boy, you've almost got conflicting communities of interest. And that's not easy for a member of Congress. You've got to pick and choose who you represent, when you represent, etc.
I think that that is a very reasoned, rational and probably common thought. I very intentionally don't view it that way. Because I am someone who approaches this as... A true rising tide lifts all boats. And that even when you talk to the real estate developers, etc., they are also very much invested in New York City and in making New York City a better, more affordable place. place to live.
And that's to their benefit as well. So I actually do not think that working as a member in this district has mutually exclusive interests, because I think that if you are working to help those that need perhaps a little bit more of a boost, as long as you're not trying to do that at the expense of
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Chapter 8: How has Trump's relationship with Putin been characterized?
What makes us different? There are a lot of countries that have laws for citizens and then laws for non-citizens. And those are the countries that people don't invest money in. Those are the countries that people don't travel to. You don't feel secure.
That's right. And it's a very dangerous, dangerous slippery slope if you go down that rabbit hole.
Are there, now that you've been in this a term and you've seen sort of this, essentially we're politicizing the law and one could argue that If laws are being created by political figures, then there's always some politics to the law. I think we could both agree upon that. But are there some things that we never codified, that Trump took advantage of, that we may have to codify some things?
Give me some on the high level that you think the next time Democrats have a chance that, hey, we've got to... Because I assume, right, this is my optimistic side. I have this take that we're kind of sort of replaying the early 20th century. Robber barons, broligarks, partisan media in the late 19th century, partisan media. This time we're all trying to there was a muckraker showed up.
We had an independent journalist. You had we gave, you know, women got the right to vote, direct election of senators. People are talking about some reforms of democracy. So I am of the mindset that the people are going to. We're going to create some new laws and some new guardrails and some new frameworks, because we're not going to want to have this happen again.
Now we have to decide what that is, right? We're probably not, I think we're probably, you know, one more, you know, five more drops in the stock market before you get some more consensus on this. But give me a few that you think, boy, we never codified this norm, because you're talking about a lot of norms.
What's something we may have to codify to protect ourselves from a future elected leader that may practice demagogic behavior?
Ja, ähm, ich denke, äh, eine Sache, die Donald Trump gemacht hat, sowohl am ersten als auch im zweiten Termin, ist, dass er die Schwierigkeit ausgesprochen hat, wie viel unsere Regierung wirklich auf zwei Dinge hängt. Ähm, das eine ist diese Aufmerksamkeit des Offices und dass jeder ausgewählte Offizier und bis zu und vor allem der Präsident eine Aufmerksamkeit nimmt.
To follow the Constitution and in the President's case to faithfully execute the laws. And if if you are unwilling or uninterested in following that oath to take an independent responsibility to view what the Constitution says and follow it, then you are already
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