Dave Wasserman
Appearances
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It's an honor. Congratulations on this new adventure.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Es fühlte sich als ein wirklich kleines Unternehmen an, als ich erst angefangen habe. Da waren fünf von uns da. Ich weiß nicht, wie ich das Haus 16 Jahre lang selbst gemacht habe. Um ehrlich zu sein, habe ich es nicht richtig gemacht. Ich habe mich immer auf Inspiration von Amys alten Sachen geäußert. Und jetzt haben wir ein junges Team von Schriftstörern, die einen tollen Job damit machen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Aber jetzt sind wir ein großes Unternehmen. Wir sind bis zu zehn Personen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It's amazing to me, Chuck. As a 13-year-old kid who was getting into this stuff, living in the Jersey suburbs, I would read the Almanac of American Politics at the library because I couldn't check out reference books. I'd watch Inside Politics with Judy Woodruff and Bernard Shaw. Back then it was inconceivable that a special election night would get wall-to-wall coverage for a House race, right?
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
And I think beginning with John Ossoff in 2017 and that obsession, once Trump got in power, Democrats just, you know, their enthusiasm among the donor class and the activist class went through the roof. What can we do to stop this? Und es füllte sich alles in Dinge ein, die normalerweise nicht allzu erstaunlich wären. Und plötzlich wurden sie diese leckeren Objekte.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Und jetzt hast du viele, viele Teenager, die, weißt du, wie alt ich war, als ich das erste Mal dazu ging. Sie folgen diesem in einer ziemlich obsessiven Weise. Was wir verloren haben, ist. A lot of the local news component to it.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
That's right. Right. Because we're getting all these clips. And now where are we really getting our clips from? It's from press releases. It's from the party committees. To some extent, there is some regional reporting left that is our ear to the ground. You have to do your own reporting. That's what I had to transition the hotline to. That's right.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Und in diesen Tagen geht es wirklich darum, diese Verbindungen mit den General-Konsultanten für die Kampagnen zu bauen, um einen Eindruck zu bekommen, was passiert, weil es weniger Intermediäre gibt. Und man muss auch alle Social Media folgen und versuchen, sie zu entspannen. Man muss die Beziehungen mit den Postern, die die Kampagnen mit den General-Konsultanten, mit den
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Es gibt viele Operatoren, die ihre Staaten gut kennen, weil es weniger Medienintermediäre gibt, als es früher war. Ich denke, viele der Staathaus-Start-ups und die Arbeiten, die du arbeitest, die du faszinierst, haben die Möglichkeit, ähnlich zu sein, wie wir es früher hatten. Aber sie werden sehr anders aussehen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Actually, the fact you brought up Alabama 1 is fascinating because we always start on that district when we do all 435 races. Right, it's first in the alphabet. And I actually think it's pretty instructive over time. I've had a great source in Mobile. That district was traditionally a defense appropriations district, right? Sonny Callahan, Bradley Byrne, and then up until recently, Jerry Carl.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
And then what happened? Well, in the Voting Rights Act lawsuit, It got merged with a Freedom Caucus district in the Wiregrass region to the east. And who won that, that our versus our primary? It was the Freedom Caucus guy over the appropriator. So it speaks to what voters are valuing and how that shifted over time on the Republican side. But yeah, I mean, that...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
My favorite districts to cover are those that are mid-sized markets where you do have a robust civic class and a newspaper or a good local media outlet with a reporter that ist, Dinge gut zu beobachten. Syracuse ist ein weiteres Lieblingsgebiet, um die kongressiven Rennen zu beobachten. Ich spreche mit Mark Wiener, dem Post-Standard, er ist auf der Oberstufe von allem, was da los ist.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Es ist in diesen exurben Städten in großen Märkten oder in wirklich rüren Plätzen, wo alle Papiere weggegangen sind, die sind schwieriger.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Right. And to some extent, Facebook has filled the void in these communities in warped ways. You know what's really filling the void in a lot of communication in these races is Super PACs. And I've even seen a lot of Super PACs resorting to creating mailers that resemble local newspapers.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
I think when there is a competitive primary for a safe seat, which is really the scenario that generates most new members of Congress, you almost have to have a soft dollar component in addition to the hard campaign dollars, right? Because when you're trying to break through in a crowded field, unless you're a are injecting personal wealth.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
You've got to have wealthy outside allies or friends to be able to maintain pace. I think it's very, very rare to see a shoe leather campaign that's raising money in hard dollar limited increments end up succeeding on that alone these days.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah. You know, most of the overwhelming share is spent on TV, but I have seen mailers in particular that resemble them. I think DMFI engaged in some of that in Democratic primaries.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Got it. Yeah. Die demokratische Mehrheit für Israel. Ja, die demokratische Mehrheit für Israel, danke. Genau. Du hast auch American Bridge gesehen, das ist ein großer Super-Pack, der ein paar Pfeilchen schreibt, die aus den lokalen Zeitungen aussehen, um in 2024 Städte zu beeinflussen. Aber ja, es ist eine Trendlinie, die die Linien weiter verweigert.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Well, in terms of the PVI range of, let's take R plus 5 to D plus 5, it bottomed out at 71 seats after Trump was elected. That was down 57% from 164 in 1999. We've rebounded a bit to 87 because we've had a number of of Hispanic majority districts and kind of, you know, in that 50 to 70 percent white range of districts that have become less solidly blue.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
That's not to say that we've had this big resurgence in Now, the other component of that is that there are some previously R-plus-5 or more suburbs that are now in that strike zone. And Democrats have flipped a lot of those in 2018 and have maintained control of them. And the big trade in the Trump era is...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
He's alienated college whites in exchange for winning a larger share of working class non-whites. And I think that's been a good trade for his ability to win the popular vote. A good trade in presidential elections. In presidential elections. Yeah.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
What about for House races and midterms? The latter group tends to be concentrated in those urban non-competitive seats, right? Or at least they're not competitive yet. They're still a long ways. AOC's district was near the top of the list. Richie Torres' district was near the top of the list.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Right. Now, you know, New Jersey 9, Bill Pascrell's old seat, which flipped to Trump, Sayek, New Jersey and Patterson, New Jersey. Now that's a seat that Democrats do have to be concerned about in the long run. Whereas Mikey Sherrill's district, which borders it, which used to be, you know, solidly Republican, Rodney Frelinghuysen. Now that's a safe Democratic seat.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
So that's kind of my home state illustration of how this model has flipped. Das hat ein Szenario erzeugt, in dem die medienhafte Sitzung jetzt noch näher ist als jemals, seitdem wir die PVI in den 90er-Jahren gestartet haben. Die Redistriktionsvorsorge der Republikaner hat sich in den 2010er-Jahren gesteigert und 2017
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
After Trump was first elected, the median House, if you ranked ordered all of them from one to 435, was R plus three. So three points to the right of the nation as a whole. Today, it's R plus 0.6. And that median district is California 22, held by David Valadao.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
But that just illustrates how much less skewed the House map is than it used to be, owing not really to changes in redistricting, but rather the changes in the party coalitions.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Ja, es gibt eine Bifurkation zwischen den Sitzungen, die von den Republikanern geführt wurden, das sind ca. 41% der Sitzungen, aber sie zählen nur auf 21% der Städte. Und dann die Sitzungen, die von den Gerichten und Kommissionen geführt wurden. Wir hatten eine große Explosion in der Zahl der Sitzungen, die von Gerichten und Kommissionen geführt wurden, in der letzten Runde.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Es war nicht nur Kalifornien, die es schon lange gehalten hat. It also was Michigan and Colorado and Pennsylvania. And keep in mind, you know, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It's supposed to be, not really. It's kind of somewhere in between, right? Democrats have done pretty well on the Ohio map as it is, but that's one place where the lines could change prior to 26.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
But a measure to try and double down on that reform failed last cycle because Republicans who control the state ballot board, they twisted the language to make it seem as if the amendment was the opposite of what it was intending to do. So, yeah, it is kind of a situation of capture. But the...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Only reason we have Speaker Mike Johnson is because Republicans re-gerrymandered the lines in North Carolina last cycle. And now Republicans are, and that gave them three seats, which ended up being the decisive margin.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Well, that's true, too, if you go back to... Well, when it's that narrow, right?
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, everyone can take credit. But you know what's interesting about how the conversation has changed the last couple of years? For the last decade plus, it was primarily Democrats who were complaining about egregious Republican gerrymandering. What I noticed after...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
2024, when Democrats bucked the presidential trend and picked up a couple of House seats, most of my mentions were Republicans complaining about redistricting and California gerrymandering the lines. Look, California's got a commission. I think that Democrats were able to game a little bit, but complaining about the lines in Illinois and New Mexico and Oregon.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
So now I think there's much more of a... And look, Democrats, We're only able to draw about a third of the number of seats that Republicans did. But the complaining has become much more bipartisan.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Ehrlich? Das ist ehrlich. Und gleichzeitig, schau dir die Grenzen an, die einige von diesen Republikanern im Jahr 2024 gewonnen haben, in diesen Rennen. Schau, die Demokraten haben die Republikaner im letzten Jahr im Haus-Fundraising geklappert, was eine große Grundlage dafür ist, warum sie Kamala Harris übergebracht haben.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Viele ihrer Anwesenden konnten sich viel breiter verhandeln als Kamala Harris. Aber schau dir die Grenzen an, die die Republikaner gewonnen haben. Es waren etwa 7300 Voten, wenn du diese paar entscheidenden Rennen aufzählst. Und du estimierst die Veränderungen in beidem, wo Trumps Basis nicht wirklich für Republikaner außer Trump aufsteht, und die Tatsache, dass...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Independence could sour on him on the economy. You could end up seeing a pretty large gain and large by today's standards. You know, you're not going to see. That's in the 20s, right? You're not going to see 40 seats. Could it be in the 20s? Yes, it could be in the 20s. Because these seats held by Scott Perry and Derek Van Orden and Gabe Evans, Jen Kiggins.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, this is a classic kind of midterm backlash environment that we're beginning to see emerge.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
In some ways we're back to 2017 and in some ways we're not.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
You know, the Florida specials occurred roughly around the same time of the cycle when we had a result in Wichita, Kansas in 2017. Remember the Pompeo special. Yeah, the Pompeo seat and Republicans underperformed by like 20 points there. And By the same measure, you know, we're kind of in that realm of specials right now.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
And it was probably smart of Trump to pull the Stefanik nomination, because that's a district, I think, that behaves more, it's got more give to it. It's too close to Albany.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Ja, und das war tatsächlich die erste besondere Aktion, die ich in Person beobachten musste, als Bill Owens Didi Skozafala. In manchen Fällen ist es das Gleiche. Ich denke, was anders ist, ist, dass es ein bisschen länger gedauert hat, diesen Zyklus für die Demokraten, um sich wieder zu engagieren. Es gab ein paar Monate, in denen es so viel Demoralisierung und Verlust gab, dass...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Während es im Jahr 2016 und 2017 sofort war. Es gab den Frauenmarsch und so weiter. Jetzt denke ich, dass die Demokraten wirklich gehypt sind. Sie sind wieder im Spiel. Und je nachdem, wie Sie ein Ergebnis sehen, wie in Wisconsin, wo ein Staats-Supreme-Kurz-Kandidat im April 78 Prozent des demokratischen Votums aus dem vergangenen Sommer bekommen hat und die Republikaner nur 63 Prozent bekommen.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Das erzählt Ihnen darüber, wie die Turnout-Dynamiken von dem, was sie in der Obama-Ära waren, geändert wurden.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It's a great question. And you're right. I do think there was a kind of combination of a federal and military workforce element in Florida One. And also keep in mind, there are a lot of second homes that have become primary homes along that stretch of coast.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, and there are parts of the country that are analogous.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, definitely. But the kind of the dark horse districts that I think about are places like Colorado Springs, where it's been Republican forever.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
But it's these it's these midsize districts. outdoorsy metros that are attracting left-leaning professionals that want a lower cost of living than the big cities. So it's Asheville, it's Colorado Springs. It's, you know, I look at Kevin Kiley's district in Northern California, which has some of the Tahoe region and some of the Sacramento suburbs. And that hasn't really been in play recently.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
I was surprised that the D-Trip didn't have it on its list. But those are the kinds of seats... Back at this point in 2017, for example, even though Dave Brat had beaten Eric Cantor, that seat was not really on people's radars. But the Richmond suburbs were moving and Democrats got a great candidate in Abigail Spanberger. And by the end of the cycle, it was a toss-up.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
I think we're going to see similar dynamics now. And keep in mind that Democrats are a lot closer to the majority today than they were in 2017.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It could be. I wouldn't be surprised if Zach Nunn took a serious look at it. I would be a little bit more surprised if Marionette Miller-Meeks, who has kind of struggled to lock down her district. I don't know if she has that statewide appeal. But Hinson might. Hinson might. Sure, sure. She's looking at it, too. Yeah. And, you know, Iowa, I think, is a perfect barometer for 26, because...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
If there is a place where tariffs should cost Republicans locally, it's their farm states.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, and yet Democrats have been trying to make a case that that would happen there for years. And they've got... Nebraska got uncomfortably close for Deb Fischer.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, that's a great point. It's it's gotten a lot closer. And I think the fracture in the Republican Party in Kansas has been more severe than in other states. There's something about the culture there that, you know, they've they've just been at war with each other for years in a way that has made its elevated Democrats.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
I totally agree with you. And the other component that makes Kansas different from a Texas, those states don't have Hispanic components that are moving towards Trump in a sizable way.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
But as a part of the electorate, you know, that's a state where a lot of the Hispanic population is not voting. So, yeah, but fascinating, you know, when you think of where Democrats opportunities will lie in the future and play out the 2030 census, where, you know, if the current projections are accurate and.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Florida and Texas each gain four seats and Idaho gains a seat and New York loses three and California loses four. That's the equivalent of Massachusetts flipping from blue to red.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
I think there are plenty of ways to make those Republican seats, especially given the trend line in South Texas and South Florida. Because keep in mind, a lot of the districts that Republicans drew in both states to be solidly Democratic seats, they're looking less solid. Look at Look at the presidential margin in Jared Moskowitz's district or Debbie Wasserman Schultz or Lois Frankel's seats.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, and Broward is now kind of a blue island.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Democrats, as you know, are now a six or seven county party in Florida.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
If enough Hispanic voters are moving Republicans way by that point.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
There's no doubt. And yet there's been a vacuum on the Republican side of political talent. Who is really stepping up in California who can compete with the Schwarzenegger phenomenon? No one, right? And Kathy Hochul was very vulnerable in 2022. And yet Lee Zeldin was not the right Republican to beat her. I think had Republicans nominated...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
A decade ago there was a congressman from the Hudson Valley, Chris Gibson, who had a military background, was very bipartisan, absolutely could have broken through in that kind of climate. I think a Mike Lawler would be much more formidable in that scenario.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, they should be very concerned. And there's every reason for these Republicans to take a good look at a gubernatorial race.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Oh yeah, and I expect Democrats to gain seats in the House of Delegates. The map that was imposed was a court special master drawn map that does have a fair number of competitive districts. And right now it's 51-49 in favor of Democrats. You know, I would expect a few seats in places like
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
suburbs of richmond or virginia beach or or you know the outskirts of northern virginia to flip in this environment where democrats are just super charged on turnout i might get in trouble um with with work and saying this but right now i don't view the virginia gubernatorial race as particularly competitive so i don't either and i you're right it's sort of one of those things you're like should i be saying this out loud this early but it's like
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Well, it could be even more of a beat down. Well, first of all, Virginia voted for Harris by five points. So that's a starting point, right?
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
You know, but on top of the typical... die Turnout-Dynamik von Trump-Votern, die viel mehr wegfallen. Du hast all diese federalen Arbeitsplätze-Issuen und du hast einen sehr talentierten Kommunikator in Spanberger, der, übrigens, in die rurale, zentrale Teil des Staates und der ag-Gemeinschaft, beziehungsweise Tomorrow I'm going to be speaking to the Virginia Cattlemen Association.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, I'm going to be speaking to the Virginia Cattlemen Association. Their leadership... They think very highly of Spanberger. And they're going to be pragmatic, right? Right. But yeah, she's done the work to build those coalitions and Sears is not going to be in a position to replicate what Glenn Youngkin spent
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
in 2021 oder wie er seine Botschaft herausbekommen konnte in einem Zeitpunkt, in dem die Verteidiger den Puls der Inflation fühlten. Und das war ein frischer und salienter Problem und die Kaffee-Taxe und all das. Jetzt sind die Schuhe auf dem anderen Fuß.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
It's so true. And In New Jersey ist die Politik ganz anders. Ich habe einen schwierigen Zeitraum, den Kopf um mich herum zu wenden. Und du bist lokal. Ich bin da, weil ich in einem maschinell dominierten Staat geboren bin. Und dann haben sie in den letzten paar Jahren die Stadtlinie entfernt.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
And it used to be that that the machine dictated which candidates in the primary were out in Siberia, where you'd never find them.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
And so you wouldn't have ended up with Senator Andy Kim. No chance. I was a kid growing up there. Right. Right. And now. You know, look at Mikey Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer and you've got two suburban Democrats who have a lot of money. They're a lot closer to where the donor and power base has moved in the Democratic Party. And they're in a position to kind of overpower these
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
These long-standing products of machine politics. And look, Stephen Fulop has been a long-time reformer and self-styled change agent, but he's from Hudson County. And then there's Steve Sweeney from South Jersey, who's really one of the bosses there. But that's not where the base of the Democratic Party is anymore. And so Cheryl, by virtue of her biography...
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
could end up joining her 2018 classmate, Spanberger, as a rising governor.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Well, this has been my theory for a long time. I think that that class of 2018 on the Democratic side of the women with national security backgrounds, that is the formula. Yeah, that's the formula that has worked with a broader swath of the electorate.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Hillary Clinton, wegen ihrer Partei in der politischen Dynastie, Kamala Harris, wegen ihrer Kalifornien-Liberalen, sie könnten nicht in der gleichen Art und Weise durchbrechen. Aber es gibt so viele demokratische Frauen, die in Schwung-Distrikten durchgebrochen sind, mit der gleichen bipartisanen Formel, die Spanberger, Sheryl, Slotkin verwendet haben.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Das ist, wo ich denke, dass die Zukunft für Demokratinnen und Demokraten in einer Präsidentenwahl gut läuft.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
You mean October of the election year? Correct. Or the October before?
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Yeah, I'd say, you know, in 2018, the one caveat was Kavanaugh late, right? In that cycle, and that may have kept some Senate seats in Republicans' column. Look, the... In der Mitte der 26er-Jahre werden sie natürlich viel niedriger als die Präsidenten, aber auch viel höher als die Spezialisten. Das reduziert die Größe des Schwungs, aber wir sehen bereits sehr bekannte Pattern.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
At the end of the day, I think the biggest problem for Republicans is that Trump does not really care all that much about what happens to Republicans other than himself. And that's a big difference versus previous presidents who would obsess a lot over a certain midterm outcome or minimizing their party's losses. So this could be big, but as we said, big by today's standards
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Ja.
The Chuck ToddCast
Trump’s Weaponization Of The Justice Department + Is A Blue Wave Building For 2026?
Thanks, Chuck.